Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange Beach, AL
June 1, 2024 2:16 AM CDT (07:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM Moonset 2:51 PM |
GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 930 Pm Cdt Fri May 31 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds.
Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 6 seconds and south 1 foot at 9 seconds.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds and south 1 foot at 9 seconds.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds and south 1 foot at 9 seconds.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds, becoming southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 930 Pm Cdt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis - A moderate southeasterly flow is expected through much of the weekend, becoming occasionally strong Saturday morning. By late Sunday into the early part of next week a lighter onshore flow returns to the marine area. Waves and seas increase over the weekend as well before subsiding early next week.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 010453 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1153 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Showers and storms will increase in coverage overnight into Saturday morning with associated decreased ceilings and visbys.
MVFR to IFR ceilings and visbys will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 834 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
New UPDATE
UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Upper level storm system over the MO/KS border this evening has its axis extending southward to across LA. This has set up a favorable diffluent pattern in the high level geo-potential height field over MS and AL. In the low levels, high pressure to the east is allowing for a well established southerly flow to allow deep Gulf moisture to open up and spread northward. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was draped from central TX up into the Mid South and southeast into AL. To the south of the boundary, convective outflows that have moved in from earlier storms over LA, along with contributions from aloft are providing a focus for ascent and thus forecasters are seeing scattered showers and storms this evening lifting northwest over the interior. Southward to the coast, activity has been more isolated.
Radar has not shown much depth to the storms over the interior as they track north and away from the better instability which resides along the coast. Rain rates though are a few inches per/hour in better defined radar returns but with storm motion from 15 to 25 mph, residence time over any one area is too limited for water concerns. Probability of precipitation this evening remains unchanged at 30-50% interior to 20% coast. Rain chances to increase after midnight as better upper support moves in from the west. There is a small, marginal risk of severe storms over MS in zone of modest CAPE but lower shear. A general storm outlook is east into AL/northwest FL. /10
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
New AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
A mix of cloud bases to start the period, most at VFR categories which anticipate to hold through much of the evening. Some isolated pockets of convection over the interior was lifting northwest at 15 knots. There are indications during the predawn hours Saturday of shra/tsra spreading in from the west. Cigs/vsby lower to MVFR categories with approach of tsra. /10
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Upper-level ridging, currently near the AL/GA border, will continue pushing toward the east through the period. This ridge will strengthen and become more amplified late tonight and into tomorrow as it approaches and moves into the western Atlantic.
Looking upstream, a weak shortwave impulse over Mississippi is pushing northeastward, moving along the western periphery of the ridge. The bulk of the showers and storms associated with this feature will likely remain to our west, although as subsidence from the ridge moves away from the region, cannot rule out the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms, especially over portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama (PoPs around 20-30 percent) given the weak forcing, modest instability, and increasing moisture. The remainder of the area should remain mostly dry for the rest of the day, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out (PoPs elsewhere around 10-20 percent). Highs today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
For tonight and into tomorrow, the pattern becomes much more complex as a shortwave trough moves into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, and eventually into the Tennessee River Valley. Several more robust shortwave impulses begin to ride along the base of the trough, helping to provide plenty of large-scale forcing across the area.
Additionally, at the surface, outflow boundaries from the previous storms over Mississippi/Louisiana look to slowly push into our area.
The first of the main impulses will approach the area tonight, helping to initiate scattered to numerous storm development, especially over the western half of the area where the outflow boundaries will be located. By the morning and into the early afternoon, convective coverage looks to become more widespread across the entire local area as the impulses continue to move overhead. Instability tonight is expected to increase rather quickly, with a few CAMs suggesting CAPE values generally around 1500 to 2500 J/kg prior to storm initiation. Deep layer shear out ahead of the storms looks rather meager, however, shear values should begin to increase (to around 25-35 knots) during the morning hours from the west. This increase in shear may allow for storms to organize into multicellular clusters (one or two supercells cannot be ruled out) and eventually into an MCS as the shear punches into the developing storms. Therefore, cannot rule out storms capable of producing severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Due to this risk, a marginal risk of severe storms is in place across the entire local area. At this point, due to the developing LLJ remaining well to our north (and therefore weak low level shear in place), no tornadoes are expected. Additionally, storms will also be capable of producing high rainfall rates which could lead to some localized or nuisance type flooding especially given the high PWATs and slower storm motions. Coverage may begin to lower by the middle to latter part of the afternoon, but this depends on how worked over our environment becomes after our late night/morning rounds of storms.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s a long the coast. Highs tomorrow should only reach the low to mid 80s due to the widespread rainfall and cloud cover. A moderate risk of rip currents tonight will increase to a high risk tomorrow. /96
SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
An upper trof which extends from near the Great Lakes to the north central Gulf coast gradually weakens while continuing into the western Atlantic during the period. A series of shortwaves progress across the forecast region through the period, though the shortwaves will be stronger during the Saturday night into Sunday time frame. A surface ridge over the southeastern states weakens through Monday night but nevertheless maintains a moist southerly flow over the forecast area, with precipitable water values typically ranging from 1.75-2.0 inches. Have gone with chance pops Saturday night and chance to likely pops for Sunday as the series of stronger shortwaves move across the area, then slight chance to chance pops follow for Monday as the series of shortwaves weaken. May see a few strong storms develop early Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast then trend a bit warmer through Monday night to range from the upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s near the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 80s and highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s to around 90. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday night through Sunday night, then a moderate risk follows for Monday and Monday night. /29
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
An upper trof over the northern and central Plains steadily amplifies while spreading into the eastern states, and an associated surface low passes well to the north and brings a weak cold front through the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the forecast area through Thursday with some modestly drier air flowing into the region Thursday night but looks to recover on Friday. Forcing looks to be limited over the area Tuesday and Wednesday so have gone with dry to slight chance pops, then slight chance to chance pops follow for Thursday as the front moves into the area. Have gone with slight chance pops for Friday due in part to some uncertainty with the timing of the frontal passage. /29
MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
A moderate southeasterly flow is expected through much of the weekend. Winds will occasionally become strong late tonight and into Saturday morning and exercise caution headlines will likely become necessary for this period. By late Sunday into the early part of next week a lighter onshore flow returns to the marine area. Waves and seas increase over the weekend as well before subsiding early next week. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 72 83 70 84 71 88 72 89 / 60 90 50 60 20 20 20 20 Pensacola 74 82 73 84 73 86 74 87 / 60 90 50 50 20 20 10 10 Destin 74 82 74 84 75 86 75 87 / 40 80 40 40 10 20 10 10 Evergreen 69 81 66 84 67 90 68 91 / 40 90 50 60 20 20 20 20 Waynesboro 69 83 67 84 68 88 69 92 / 60 90 40 70 20 30 20 20 Camden 68 81 67 83 67 88 69 91 / 40 90 50 60 20 30 20 20 Crestview 69 83 67 86 67 90 67 91 / 30 80 40 60 10 20 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1153 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Showers and storms will increase in coverage overnight into Saturday morning with associated decreased ceilings and visbys.
MVFR to IFR ceilings and visbys will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 834 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
New UPDATE
UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Upper level storm system over the MO/KS border this evening has its axis extending southward to across LA. This has set up a favorable diffluent pattern in the high level geo-potential height field over MS and AL. In the low levels, high pressure to the east is allowing for a well established southerly flow to allow deep Gulf moisture to open up and spread northward. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was draped from central TX up into the Mid South and southeast into AL. To the south of the boundary, convective outflows that have moved in from earlier storms over LA, along with contributions from aloft are providing a focus for ascent and thus forecasters are seeing scattered showers and storms this evening lifting northwest over the interior. Southward to the coast, activity has been more isolated.
Radar has not shown much depth to the storms over the interior as they track north and away from the better instability which resides along the coast. Rain rates though are a few inches per/hour in better defined radar returns but with storm motion from 15 to 25 mph, residence time over any one area is too limited for water concerns. Probability of precipitation this evening remains unchanged at 30-50% interior to 20% coast. Rain chances to increase after midnight as better upper support moves in from the west. There is a small, marginal risk of severe storms over MS in zone of modest CAPE but lower shear. A general storm outlook is east into AL/northwest FL. /10
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
New AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
A mix of cloud bases to start the period, most at VFR categories which anticipate to hold through much of the evening. Some isolated pockets of convection over the interior was lifting northwest at 15 knots. There are indications during the predawn hours Saturday of shra/tsra spreading in from the west. Cigs/vsby lower to MVFR categories with approach of tsra. /10
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Upper-level ridging, currently near the AL/GA border, will continue pushing toward the east through the period. This ridge will strengthen and become more amplified late tonight and into tomorrow as it approaches and moves into the western Atlantic.
Looking upstream, a weak shortwave impulse over Mississippi is pushing northeastward, moving along the western periphery of the ridge. The bulk of the showers and storms associated with this feature will likely remain to our west, although as subsidence from the ridge moves away from the region, cannot rule out the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms, especially over portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama (PoPs around 20-30 percent) given the weak forcing, modest instability, and increasing moisture. The remainder of the area should remain mostly dry for the rest of the day, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out (PoPs elsewhere around 10-20 percent). Highs today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
For tonight and into tomorrow, the pattern becomes much more complex as a shortwave trough moves into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, and eventually into the Tennessee River Valley. Several more robust shortwave impulses begin to ride along the base of the trough, helping to provide plenty of large-scale forcing across the area.
Additionally, at the surface, outflow boundaries from the previous storms over Mississippi/Louisiana look to slowly push into our area.
The first of the main impulses will approach the area tonight, helping to initiate scattered to numerous storm development, especially over the western half of the area where the outflow boundaries will be located. By the morning and into the early afternoon, convective coverage looks to become more widespread across the entire local area as the impulses continue to move overhead. Instability tonight is expected to increase rather quickly, with a few CAMs suggesting CAPE values generally around 1500 to 2500 J/kg prior to storm initiation. Deep layer shear out ahead of the storms looks rather meager, however, shear values should begin to increase (to around 25-35 knots) during the morning hours from the west. This increase in shear may allow for storms to organize into multicellular clusters (one or two supercells cannot be ruled out) and eventually into an MCS as the shear punches into the developing storms. Therefore, cannot rule out storms capable of producing severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Due to this risk, a marginal risk of severe storms is in place across the entire local area. At this point, due to the developing LLJ remaining well to our north (and therefore weak low level shear in place), no tornadoes are expected. Additionally, storms will also be capable of producing high rainfall rates which could lead to some localized or nuisance type flooding especially given the high PWATs and slower storm motions. Coverage may begin to lower by the middle to latter part of the afternoon, but this depends on how worked over our environment becomes after our late night/morning rounds of storms.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s a long the coast. Highs tomorrow should only reach the low to mid 80s due to the widespread rainfall and cloud cover. A moderate risk of rip currents tonight will increase to a high risk tomorrow. /96
SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
An upper trof which extends from near the Great Lakes to the north central Gulf coast gradually weakens while continuing into the western Atlantic during the period. A series of shortwaves progress across the forecast region through the period, though the shortwaves will be stronger during the Saturday night into Sunday time frame. A surface ridge over the southeastern states weakens through Monday night but nevertheless maintains a moist southerly flow over the forecast area, with precipitable water values typically ranging from 1.75-2.0 inches. Have gone with chance pops Saturday night and chance to likely pops for Sunday as the series of stronger shortwaves move across the area, then slight chance to chance pops follow for Monday as the series of shortwaves weaken. May see a few strong storms develop early Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast then trend a bit warmer through Monday night to range from the upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s near the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 80s and highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s to around 90. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday night through Sunday night, then a moderate risk follows for Monday and Monday night. /29
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
An upper trof over the northern and central Plains steadily amplifies while spreading into the eastern states, and an associated surface low passes well to the north and brings a weak cold front through the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the forecast area through Thursday with some modestly drier air flowing into the region Thursday night but looks to recover on Friday. Forcing looks to be limited over the area Tuesday and Wednesday so have gone with dry to slight chance pops, then slight chance to chance pops follow for Thursday as the front moves into the area. Have gone with slight chance pops for Friday due in part to some uncertainty with the timing of the frontal passage. /29
MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
A moderate southeasterly flow is expected through much of the weekend. Winds will occasionally become strong late tonight and into Saturday morning and exercise caution headlines will likely become necessary for this period. By late Sunday into the early part of next week a lighter onshore flow returns to the marine area. Waves and seas increase over the weekend as well before subsiding early next week. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 72 83 70 84 71 88 72 89 / 60 90 50 60 20 20 20 20 Pensacola 74 82 73 84 73 86 74 87 / 60 90 50 50 20 20 10 10 Destin 74 82 74 84 75 86 75 87 / 40 80 40 40 10 20 10 10 Evergreen 69 81 66 84 67 90 68 91 / 40 90 50 60 20 20 20 20 Waynesboro 69 83 67 84 68 88 69 92 / 60 90 40 70 20 30 20 20 Camden 68 81 67 83 67 88 69 91 / 40 90 50 60 20 30 20 20 Crestview 69 83 67 86 67 90 67 91 / 30 80 40 60 10 20 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy | 11 mi | 37 min | SSE 16G | 82°F | 82°F | 29.99 | 78°F | |
| BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL | 16 mi | 167 min | 82°F | 30.01 | ||||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 20 mi | 92 min | 0 | 79°F | 30.04 | 74°F | ||
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 22 mi | 59 min | SSE 5.1G | 82°F | 30.01 | |||
| FRMA1 | 23 mi | 59 min | SSE 11G | 83°F | 29.98 | 81°F | ||
| DILA1 | 27 mi | 59 min | S 20G | 82°F | 81°F | 29.97 | ||
| DPHA1 | 28 mi | 167 min | 82°F | 81°F | 29.51 | |||
| EFLA1 | 28 mi | 59 min | 82°F | 78°F | ||||
| CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL | 31 mi | 137 min | 86°F | 30.40 | ||||
| MBPA1 | 35 mi | 59 min | 81°F | 79°F | ||||
| MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL | 40 mi | 59 min | NE 11G | 76°F | 82°F | 29.98 | ||
| PTOA1 | 40 mi | 59 min | 76°F | 73°F | ||||
| OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL | 42 mi | 59 min | 74°F | 82°F | 30.04 | |||
| GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 47 mi | 92 min | SSE 13 | 82°F | 30.01 | 78°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJKA JACK EDWARDS NATIONAL,AL | 8 sm | 21 min | SSE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | Thunderstorm in Vicinity | 81°F | 79°F | 94% | 29.98 |
| KNPA PENSACOLA NAS/FORREST SHERMAN FIELD,FL | 16 sm | 20 min | SSE 12G19 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 75°F | 74% | 29.99 | |
| KCQF H L SONNY CALLAHAN,AL | 24 sm | 21 min | SE 03 | 7 sm | Overcast | Rain | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 29.98 |
Bon Secour
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:08 AM CDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:46 AM CDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:51 PM CDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:48 PM CDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM CDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:08 AM CDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:46 AM CDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:51 PM CDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:48 PM CDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM CDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida, Tide feet
Mobile, AL,
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