BEACH HAZARDS

We still expect that the rip current risk will ramp up considerably during the day Friday and into the holiday weekend as long period swell (on the order of 15-17 seconds) associated with distant Hurricane Beryl shoots north through the Yucatan Channel as the hurricane moves into the western Caribbean Sea and eventually into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This swell packet still looks to reach the northern Gulf coast by late Friday morning. The combination of the high period swell and large tidal ranges with tide outgoing during the afternoon/evening will favor the development of dangerous rip currents Friday through the weekend.
We now have a HIGH rip current risk in place along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches Friday through Sunday night.

The arrival of the swell packet will also likely lead to increasing beach erosion problems and possible wave run-up issues at the Gulf front beaches (especially problematic and vulnerable areas like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by midday Friday into Saturday night. Some localized minor salt water flooding of these areas could be possible, and although tide levels are not expected to be significantly above normal along our coast and NO coastal flooding in the general sense (due to above normal tides) is expected, the wave run-up issues could cause some problems at the vulnerable areas noted above. With this, we have issued a precautionary Coastal Flood Advisory to highlight this potential for the normally vulnerable areas noted. DS/12

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Weak upper level ridging remains centered over the eastern Gulf through the weekend as an upper trough lingers over the central US. A weak surface front will push into northern portions of Alabama and Mississippi over the weekend before stalling. Plenty of moisture will be in place through the weekend with PWATs around 2-2.5 inches. This pattern will continue to support daily chances for showers and storms with convection following a typical diurnal pattern. As we head into early next week, the upper ridging will begin to strengthen somewhat. Moisture will still remain entrenched underneath the ridge so we'll continue to see summer time storms into early next week with coverage remaining mostly scattered to perhaps locally numerous at times. Conditions will remain very warm and humid through the period with high temperatures rising into the lower and middle 90s each day. Heat index values will likely be near or above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the period and heat advisories may be needed on any given day, particularly if convective coverage trends lower. Overnight lows won't provide much relief with values dropping only into the lower to middle 70's inland with upper 70's to lower 80's near the coast. Please refer to the beach hazards section above for details on the potential for dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding concerns as we head into the weekend. /14

MARINE
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

MARINE
A light southwest to west flow pattern will prevail through the holiday weekend. Long period swells associated with distant Hurricane Beryl will arrive into the marine area on Friday and persist into the weekend. Winds and seas will be locally higher near scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise no hazards to small craft are expected. DS/12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 76 92 76 92 76 92 76 92 / 20 70 40 70 30 60 30 60 Pensacola 79 92 78 91 78 92 78 91 / 20 70 40 60 40 70 40 70 Destin 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 90 / 10 60 40 60 40 70 40 60 Evergreen 75 94 74 93 73 93 73 92 / 20 60 50 70 20 70 30 70 Waynesboro 75 93 73 91 73 92 73 94 / 20 70 50 60 10 60 20 60 Camden 74 94 73 91 72 92 72 92 / 20 60 60 60 20 50 30 70 Crestview 75 94 75 94 74 94 73 93 / 10 70 30 70 30 70 30 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.