Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Shores, AL
November 28, 2023 4:32 PM CST (22:32 UTC)
Sunrise 6:27AM Sunset 4:51PM Moonrise 6:52PM Moonset 8:50AM
GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 401 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet early this evening, then 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 2 seconds.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 2 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet early this evening, then 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 2 seconds.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 2 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 401 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong northerly flow will generally be decreasing over the next several days as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west.
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong northerly flow will generally be decreasing over the next several days as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 282207 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 407 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
A dry flow pattern will continue through early Thursday, but a few isolated showers will be possible by late Thursday afternoon over interior southeast MS as the next storm system begins to take shape to our west. Surface high pressure will be drifting east across our area tonight and Wednesday, bringing mostly clear skies and cool/cold temperatures with it. The ridge axis will be more or less centered right over our area late tonight and Wednesday. By Wednesday night into Thursday the center of the surface high will have shifted east of our forecast area, with a moderating return flow beginning to set up for us. Mid/upper flow will be more or less zonal through late Wednesday, but as a shortwave troughing and developing surface low pressure moves into north Texas by Thursday mid/upper flow will become more southwesterly. The low level return flow off the Gulf and increasing southwesterly flow aloft will bring a surge of higher dewpoints into the region from the southwest by the end of the near term period, but as mentioned rain chances will not increase until we move into Friday and the weekend.
With regard to temperatures, the Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight for the entire forecast area except for locations along the immediate coast. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s from interior southeast MS eastward across interior southwest and south central AL, low to mid 30s along the I-10 corridor and then in the upper 30s and lower 40s closer to the coast. A gradual warmup will begin on Wednesday and persist into Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with the cooler temps over interior southwest and south central AL.
Lows Wednesday night will not be quite as cold as tonight, generally ranging from the low to mid 30s inland areas and low to mid 40s closer to and along the coast. A few inland locations could briefly drop to right around the freezing mark, but for now looks to be only a few isolated locations and only briefly right around sunrise Thursday morning, so will not issue a Freeze Watch for Wednesday night at this time. We will continue to monitor and see if temperature trends over the inland areas cool any before making any firm decision on that. Thursday high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 60s across most of the area, but a few isolated upper 50s possible over south central AL east of I-65 and a some upper 60s possible along the immediate coast. /12
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Deep southwesterly flow aloft is expected to become established Thursday night as the first of a series of southern stream shortwave troughs ejects northeastward out of Texas and towards the Ohio River Valley. This flow pattern will allow for deep layer moisture to surge into the region, with PWAT values increasing to around or above 1.75 inches (potentially close to 2 inches in some locations). At the surface, an area of low pressure looks to develop near the ArkLaTex region in response to the initial ejecting upper trough, and follow a similar track northeastward towards the Ohio River Valley. As it develops, a warm front will lift northward across our area Thursday night and a weakening cold front will approach late Friday morning from the northwest.
Numerous to widespread showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms, will begin to spread across the area in the wake of the warm front and along and ahead of the approaching cold front.
Guidance continues to suggest that the best dynamics associated with the upper trough should remain well displaced to our north and west. In addition, instability continues to look rather meager due to increased cloud cover/shower activity and generally poor lapse rates. These factors should help to keep severe potential fairly low across the region, however, with a completely saturated profile, cannot rule out an isolated, embedded strong to severe storm within the general shower activity caused by precipitation loading. Rain chances should decrease from west to east Friday afternoon and into the early evening as the cold front enters the region.
By Friday night, the front will begin to slow down and eventually stall overhead as forcing from the initial shortwave trough quickly lifts northeastward. Continued high PWATs, embedded shortwave impulses within the southwesterly flow aloft, and the front providing a low-level focus will support additional rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms starting early Saturday morning and through much of the weekend. Rain chances finally start to trend downward from west to east Sunday night as another cold front enters the region, with conditions drying out throughout the day on Monday.
As noted in the previous discussion, guidance has continued to suggest that the second front may be more progressive than what guidance was showing yesterday. In fact, the 12Z deterministic Euro suggests that the local area may be dry by as early as Sunday afternoon. We will continue to watch trends and adjust PoPs over the coming days.
As far as rainfall, QPF probabilities have trended downward over the past 24 hours due to the more progressive trend that the latest guidance has been suggesting. Global guidance suggests that the entire region could see around 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Ensemble probabilities for QPF totals greater than 4 inches have also come down considerably across the area, however with the overall synoptic setup and very high moisture values, still cannot rule out a few localized areas receiving 4+ inches of rain, especially for areas where heavy rain bands may train.
By Monday night and especially into Tuesday, a cooler/drier airmass advects into the region from the north bringing an end to our rain chances. /96
MARINE
Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
A moderate to occasionally strong northerly flow will generally be decreasing over the next several days as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return by Thursday and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west. SCA conditions are likely Thursday night into Friday, especially for the offshore Gulf waters. Conditions could be hazardous for small craft during the late part of the week. /12
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 33 60 41 66 58 74 64 73 / 0 0 0 10 70 70 70 70 Pensacola 39 58 44 68 59 74 66 73 / 0 0 0 10 60 80 60 70 Destin 41 60 46 67 59 73 67 73 / 0 0 0 0 40 80 60 70 Evergreen 28 59 31 62 48 73 63 72 / 0 0 0 0 60 80 70 70 Waynesboro 30 60 35 61 52 75 60 69 / 0 0 0 10 80 50 60 60 Camden 28 57 31 60 48 72 61 69 / 0 0 0 0 80 70 60 70 Crestview 29 59 32 63 49 73 65 73 / 0 0 0 0 50 80 60 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-261>264.
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201-203-205.
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 407 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
A dry flow pattern will continue through early Thursday, but a few isolated showers will be possible by late Thursday afternoon over interior southeast MS as the next storm system begins to take shape to our west. Surface high pressure will be drifting east across our area tonight and Wednesday, bringing mostly clear skies and cool/cold temperatures with it. The ridge axis will be more or less centered right over our area late tonight and Wednesday. By Wednesday night into Thursday the center of the surface high will have shifted east of our forecast area, with a moderating return flow beginning to set up for us. Mid/upper flow will be more or less zonal through late Wednesday, but as a shortwave troughing and developing surface low pressure moves into north Texas by Thursday mid/upper flow will become more southwesterly. The low level return flow off the Gulf and increasing southwesterly flow aloft will bring a surge of higher dewpoints into the region from the southwest by the end of the near term period, but as mentioned rain chances will not increase until we move into Friday and the weekend.
With regard to temperatures, the Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight for the entire forecast area except for locations along the immediate coast. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s from interior southeast MS eastward across interior southwest and south central AL, low to mid 30s along the I-10 corridor and then in the upper 30s and lower 40s closer to the coast. A gradual warmup will begin on Wednesday and persist into Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with the cooler temps over interior southwest and south central AL.
Lows Wednesday night will not be quite as cold as tonight, generally ranging from the low to mid 30s inland areas and low to mid 40s closer to and along the coast. A few inland locations could briefly drop to right around the freezing mark, but for now looks to be only a few isolated locations and only briefly right around sunrise Thursday morning, so will not issue a Freeze Watch for Wednesday night at this time. We will continue to monitor and see if temperature trends over the inland areas cool any before making any firm decision on that. Thursday high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 60s across most of the area, but a few isolated upper 50s possible over south central AL east of I-65 and a some upper 60s possible along the immediate coast. /12
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Deep southwesterly flow aloft is expected to become established Thursday night as the first of a series of southern stream shortwave troughs ejects northeastward out of Texas and towards the Ohio River Valley. This flow pattern will allow for deep layer moisture to surge into the region, with PWAT values increasing to around or above 1.75 inches (potentially close to 2 inches in some locations). At the surface, an area of low pressure looks to develop near the ArkLaTex region in response to the initial ejecting upper trough, and follow a similar track northeastward towards the Ohio River Valley. As it develops, a warm front will lift northward across our area Thursday night and a weakening cold front will approach late Friday morning from the northwest.
Numerous to widespread showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms, will begin to spread across the area in the wake of the warm front and along and ahead of the approaching cold front.
Guidance continues to suggest that the best dynamics associated with the upper trough should remain well displaced to our north and west. In addition, instability continues to look rather meager due to increased cloud cover/shower activity and generally poor lapse rates. These factors should help to keep severe potential fairly low across the region, however, with a completely saturated profile, cannot rule out an isolated, embedded strong to severe storm within the general shower activity caused by precipitation loading. Rain chances should decrease from west to east Friday afternoon and into the early evening as the cold front enters the region.
By Friday night, the front will begin to slow down and eventually stall overhead as forcing from the initial shortwave trough quickly lifts northeastward. Continued high PWATs, embedded shortwave impulses within the southwesterly flow aloft, and the front providing a low-level focus will support additional rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms starting early Saturday morning and through much of the weekend. Rain chances finally start to trend downward from west to east Sunday night as another cold front enters the region, with conditions drying out throughout the day on Monday.
As noted in the previous discussion, guidance has continued to suggest that the second front may be more progressive than what guidance was showing yesterday. In fact, the 12Z deterministic Euro suggests that the local area may be dry by as early as Sunday afternoon. We will continue to watch trends and adjust PoPs over the coming days.
As far as rainfall, QPF probabilities have trended downward over the past 24 hours due to the more progressive trend that the latest guidance has been suggesting. Global guidance suggests that the entire region could see around 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Ensemble probabilities for QPF totals greater than 4 inches have also come down considerably across the area, however with the overall synoptic setup and very high moisture values, still cannot rule out a few localized areas receiving 4+ inches of rain, especially for areas where heavy rain bands may train.
By Monday night and especially into Tuesday, a cooler/drier airmass advects into the region from the north bringing an end to our rain chances. /96
MARINE
Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
A moderate to occasionally strong northerly flow will generally be decreasing over the next several days as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return by Thursday and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west. SCA conditions are likely Thursday night into Friday, especially for the offshore Gulf waters. Conditions could be hazardous for small craft during the late part of the week. /12
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 33 60 41 66 58 74 64 73 / 0 0 0 10 70 70 70 70 Pensacola 39 58 44 68 59 74 66 73 / 0 0 0 10 60 80 60 70 Destin 41 60 46 67 59 73 67 73 / 0 0 0 0 40 80 60 70 Evergreen 28 59 31 62 48 73 63 72 / 0 0 0 0 60 80 70 70 Waynesboro 30 60 35 61 52 75 60 69 / 0 0 0 10 80 50 60 60 Camden 28 57 31 60 48 72 61 69 / 0 0 0 0 80 70 60 70 Crestview 29 59 32 63 49 73 65 73 / 0 0 0 0 50 80 60 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-261>264.
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201-203-205.
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL | 10 mi | 183 min | 56°F | 30.28 | ||||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 14 mi | 108 min | NNW 4.1 | 59°F | 30.30 | 34°F | ||
| 42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy | 15 mi | 33 min | N 9.7G | 59°F | 69°F | 30.28 | 40°F | |
| FRMA1 | 16 mi | 45 min | NNE 13G | 58°F | 30.29 | 35°F | ||
| DILA1 | 20 mi | 45 min | NNE 13G | 57°F | 30.27 | |||
| EFLA1 | 21 mi | 45 min | 59°F | 35°F | ||||
| CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL | 24 mi | 153 min | 59°F | 30.64 | ||||
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 28 mi | 45 min | N 8G | 59°F | 68°F | 30.27 | ||
| MBPA1 | 29 mi | 45 min | 60°F | 31°F | ||||
| MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL | 34 mi | 45 min | N 7G | 58°F | 63°F | 30.27 | ||
| PTOA1 | 35 mi | 45 min | 59°F | 29°F | ||||
| OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL | 37 mi | 45 min | 59°F | 63°F | 30.30 | |||
| GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 40 mi | 108 min | N 8.9 | 58°F | 30.30 | 32°F | ||
| PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS | 43 mi | 45 min | NNW 9.9G | 58°F | 30.27 | |||
| PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS | 47 mi | 45 min | 61°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJKA JACK EDWARDS NATIONAL,AL | 4 sm | 36 min | N 06G12 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 32°F | 36% | 30.27 | |
| KCQF H L SONNY CALLAHAN,AL | 18 sm | 17 min | NNW 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 28°F | 35% | 30.28 | |
| KNPA PENSACOLA NAS/FORREST SHERMAN FIELD,FL | 21 sm | 36 min | N 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 59°F | 28°F | 31% | 30.26 |
Wind History from JKA
(wind in knots)Bon Secour
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:27 AM CST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM CST Moonset
Tue -- 09:43 AM CST -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM CST Sunset
Tue -- 05:51 PM CST Moonrise
Tue -- 10:51 PM CST 2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:27 AM CST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM CST Moonset
Tue -- 09:43 AM CST -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM CST Sunset
Tue -- 05:51 PM CST Moonrise
Tue -- 10:51 PM CST 2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -0.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.2 |
Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:35 AM CST -2.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:28 AM CST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:51 AM CST Moonset
Tue -- 10:56 AM CST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 PM CST Sunset
Tue -- 05:35 PM CST 2.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:53 PM CST Moonrise
Tue -- 11:32 PM CST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:35 AM CST -2.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:28 AM CST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:51 AM CST Moonset
Tue -- 10:56 AM CST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 PM CST Sunset
Tue -- 05:35 PM CST 2.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:53 PM CST Moonrise
Tue -- 11:32 PM CST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.9 |
| 1 am |
| -1.6 |
| 2 am |
| -2.1 |
| 3 am |
| -2.5 |
| 4 am |
| -2.8 |
| 5 am |
| -2.8 |
| 6 am |
| -2.6 |
| 7 am |
| -2.3 |
| 8 am |
| -1.8 |
| 9 am |
| -1.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Mobile, AL,
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