Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Shores, AL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

For the past couple of days we have seen convection develop along the coast late each night into the morning hours due to low-level convergence along a land-breeze, and we expect the same start for today. Scattered showers and storms along the I-10 corridor this morning will expand in coverage to become numerous inland areas this afternoon. High temperatures today will range from 90-94 degrees, and when combined with surface dewpoints ranging from 74 to 78 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees. As daytime heating leads to decreasing stability this afternoon, the environment will be supportive of a few strong to marginal severe storms capable of gusty surface winds, small hail, and frequent lightning as MLCAPE values escalate to around 2,000 to 2,500j/kg. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather outlooked for our area north of I-10.

The highly positively-tilted upper trough over the Ohio Valley this morning will migrate slowly southward over the Tennessee Valley by noon on Monday. Not much has changed with the overall synoptic pattern through the near term other than the fact that it looks like the upper low that develops within the trough today is now expected to drop further south then previously indicated, reaching as far south as the central portions of Mississippi and Alabama by Tuesday morning. This slower movement has resulted in an increasing chance of rain on Tuesday. This upper-level feature will then retrograde westward toward the southern plains into midweek under a large elongated upper high pressure area situated over much of the northern U.S. A surface low pressure area reflected in the lower levels under the upper low will also migrate southward from the Ohio Valley to the central portions of Mississippi and Alabama by Tuesday morning before moving westward.
At this time it looks like a surface boundary will not enter our forecast area, but will will see a shift to westerly/southwesterly winds between the low to our north an a surface ridge over the Gulf. With PWATS increasing to an average around 2.3" today and Monday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur today, followed by to widespread showers and storms on Monday, and numerous to widespread showers and storms on Tuesday. The potential for localized flooding is still a concern as we anticipate a general 1 to 3" of rainfall across the forecast area through the event, with isolated locations receiving up to 4". The Weather Prediction Center has our area outlooked for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall over the next 3 days, but did introduce a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for our coastal communities for Monday. We will resume our typical mid-July weather through the latter half of the week as upper high pressure rebuilds over the region. /22

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light generally southwesterly winds will increase by morning to 5-10 knots with occasional gusts up to 15 knots for areas along the coast.
Isolated to scattered storms are possible for coastal areas this morning and scattered to numerous storms for the entire area this afternoon into the evening. These storms are accompanied by erratic winds with gusts up to 35-40 knots and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. There is increasing potential for more scattered to numerous storms to redevelop along/just off the coast towards the end of the period and will be reevaluated for the 12Z forecast. SS/97

MARINE
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A generally light southwest flow becomes light to moderate on Sunday. A more moderate westerly flow sets up Monday. Light to occasionally moderate westerly flow prevails through the remainder of the week. Seas look to remain 2 to 3 feet in height into early next week, potentially reaching 4 feet late Monday. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 92 74 86 72 / 70 70 90 30 Pensacola 93 77 89 75 / 60 80 80 60 Destin 91 78 88 77 / 50 90 90 70 Evergreen 92 72 86 70 / 60 60 90 20 Waynesboro 92 72 86 71 / 70 70 80 20 Camden 89 71 85 70 / 80 80 70 30 Crestview 93 73 88 71 / 70 70 80 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Wednesday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.