PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Todays coverage across the area seems to be a little less than the past couple as early clouds helped keep temperatures a few degrees cooler during the day resulting in less mixing and a weaker seabreeze circulation. As a result, POPs were lowered for the remainder of the afternoon. Satellite observations do hint at the potential for storms to fire up along the stalled boundary across the I-65 corridor during this evening. Sunday on the other hand looks to be a little more active and will follow a similar pattern to the past few days with storms starting along the coastline then progressing inland during the afternoon. Given PWATs of 2.25 to 2.5 inches across the area, expect storms to be capable of heavy rainfall. Frequent lighting and some gusty winds will also be possible. It will remain toasty tomorrow with heat indices ranging around 105; however, storm coverage will likely limit the duration of the heat during the afternoon. BB/03

Our beach hazards continue as we move through the rest of the weekend. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect through Sunday night. The anticipated swell packet associated with now Tropical Storm Beryl arrived late yesterday afternoon resulting in a rapid and significant uptick in the presence of strong rip currents at AL/FL beaches. The swell period should gradually diminish, however anticipate a continued threat for strong rip currents through at least Sunday morning/afternoon, gradually waning into the evening and night time hours. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for all of the AL/FL panhandle coast where minor flooding associated with wave run-up due to the swell may occur. This is particularly the case in our more vulnerable areas such as the west end of Dauphin Island and the Fort Pickens area. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

There will be little change to the overall weather pattern late this weekend into the middle part of next week. Upper level ridging will continue to nose westward from the western Atlantic through the north central Gulf Coast region through Wednesday.
Abundant deep layer moisture will remain entrenched over our forecast area underneath the ridge axis each day, with precipitable water values generally continuing to average between 1.75 and 2.25 inches. Rain chances will likely be highest during the beginning half of the week as the remnant moisture of Beryl moves around the strengthening ridge. Expect the best coverage to be west of I-65 Tuesday through Wednesday. By the latter half of the week, a subtle boundary will push through the area taking a little of the moisture out. Dewpoints will drop a little bit leading to not quite as oppressive and humid conditions. With the lower moisture and northwesterly surface winds, rain chances will likely become much more scattered during the afternoon and focused along the seabreeze. Overall the back half of the week appears to be more traditional summertime like pattern and heat rather than the active and steamy period we have been dealing with. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A light southerly flow continues through the rest of the weekend as larger period swell from Beryl persists in the marine waters.
Winds will increase slightly as the remnants of Beryl track north of our area by mid-week and increased waves from Beryl will arrive as well. BB/03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 76 93 76 92 77 90 77 92 / 50 50 20 60 30 80 40 50 Pensacola 79 92 78 91 79 90 79 92 / 40 60 30 60 40 70 40 50 Destin 81 91 80 91 80 90 80 90 / 30 60 30 70 30 70 30 50 Evergreen 76 94 74 94 74 92 75 93 / 50 80 30 70 20 70 20 50 Waynesboro 73 94 74 94 74 92 74 93 / 30 60 20 60 20 80 30 40 Camden 75 94 74 94 74 93 73 93 / 30 70 30 60 30 70 20 40 Crestview 75 95 74 94 74 92 75 92 / 30 80 30 70 20 70 30 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.