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FXUS62 KGSP 030729 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 329 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid conditions will become established once again for the second half of the week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon starting Thursday, especially over the mountains. A cold front may enhance thunder chances on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday: Expect the weather to remain fair through daybreak. Satellite imagery shows some stratocu over the nrn mountains of NC drifting down toward the NW Piedmont, but this should not greatly affect the low temps. Can't rule out some mtn valley fog.

The upper pattern should slowly evolve over the next 24 hours, with the axis of a mid/upper ridge over the Appalachians to start the day getting tilted over positively and pushed to the East Coast by a nrn stream short wave that trails off across the OH Valley region. Altho the sfc high centered over New England this morning gets steadily pushed offshore as a result, it should still be able to ridge back and control our weather thru tonight. The movement of the sfc high should allow for some moisture to trickle back in from the Atlantic this afternoon, thus beginning our return to more typical humidity. Won't rule out a few ridgetop showers during peak heating if the moisture makes it far enough west. High temps will creep back up above normal this afternoon and mild low temps can be expected as well.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 218 AM EDT Wednesday: The western Carolinas should be ensconced in a SW flow regime by Thursday, although at the low-levels the positioning of an axis of high pressure over the western Atlantic will result in trajectories mostly off the Atlantic coast, not the Gulf of Mexico as is typical of SW flow patterns.
That might serve to hold our dewpoints in the lower 70s, although with afternoon temps in the mid 90s in the upper 90s to low 100s outside the mountains. Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with 1000-1500 J/kg sbCAPE expected across the area...but still think triggering will only occur over the NC mountains.

On Friday, temps will get even higher, and much of the area will see afternoon heat index values above 100 degrees. In keeping with the past few forecasts...trended toward raw model output for dewpoints...which keeps most of the forecast area clear of any heat advisory criteria for Friday afternoon. Will monitor going forward.
Once again, diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be likely on Friday, and with the approach of a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley and better instability (1500+ J/kg virtually everywhere) it's possible we could see some cells pop up outside the mountains.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 227 AM EDT Wednesday: Long-range guidance has doubled down on the idea of a cold front arriving Saturday, and now points to a somewhat faster and more aggressive push into the forecast area.
This'll enhance coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, amid what should be a very moist and unstable environment.

There's less agreement on how the second half of the weekend will evolve...with some ensemble solutions pushing the deteriorating front all the way through the area, and others allowing it to stall and even surge back north as a sfc wave works its way up from the Deep South. Seems likely that some kind of unsettled weather will be possible through the end of the forecast period, as even the drier solutions have a return to S/SE flow driven by the Bermuda high by the start of the new workweek...meaning hot, humid weather and diurnal showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals thru the period. Calm or light/variable wind through mid-morning, with only a few high clouds expected. Once we mix a bit, the wind is expected to come up from the SE to S based on the location of the sfc high moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Moisture will be a bit more available today, so a few stratocu should be expected. As we lose daytime heating, the clouds should dissipate and wind should go light S or perhaps variable/calm once again.

Outlook: A return of more typical mid-summer humidity and diurnal convection returns Thursday into the weekend leading to possible restrictions each afternoon/early evening. Fog and/or low stratus may develop each morning, especially for areas that received rain the previous day.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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