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FXUS64 KJAN 030626 AAC AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 126 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today through Next Tuesday: A broad area of high pressure will continue to dominate the South Central States through Wednesday.
Northerly flow will continue through this afternoon allowing the dry air mass to stay in the northern/north central portions of the CWA before quickly being overtaken by the southern stream of moisture from the east/southeast. This will allow PWs to jump to right around 2in by overnight areawide with the south/southeast increasing to the 2.25- 2.5in range. While unlikely, this will allow for the possibility to see some pop up showers or storms in the far southeast this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise expect a nice night with mostly clear skies and low temperatures well above climo by 5-10 degrees.

Tomorrow high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain for the remainder of the period. We can expect the surface ridge to continue to allow an influx of deep moisture into the area through next week. This will result in increase humidly and chances for showers and storms throughout each afternoon of the period. Storm coverage will be be greatest in the southeast gradually decreasing to the northwest. This will be due to a stalled boundary dropping into Northern MS.

While this will be a wet period, it will also be a hot one. High temperatures each day will remain in the mid-high 90s and heat indices in excess of 105-110 degrees leading dangerous heat stress condition. Thus there will be need for heat products areawide throughout the week with much of the area under an "Excessive Heat Warning" Wednesday and potential to continue into Thursday. Areas not under an "Excessive Heat Warning" will likely continue to be included in a "Heat Advisory." By Friday the rain will have provided enough relief to cool temps slightly with only a "Heat Advisory" likely for some areas of northwest MS and southeast AR. Due to this potential, a "Significant" was added both Wednesday and Thursday in the HWO graphics, while "Elevated" southeast of the Natchez Trace both days. By this weekend the stalled boundary will bring greater chances for areawide rainfall each day through Tuesday. This will likely us a break from most heat stress and heat related products from the weekend into early next week as high temps will dip into the lower 90s to upper 80s. /KP/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

There is some chance for BR and low stratus to produce MVFR conditions near KHBG and KPIB before 12Z to 15Z today, but main impacts to the TAF sites will be possible SHRA and TSRA generally between about 19Z today to 01Z Thursday. Gusty and erratic winds could occur near any storms, but otherwise expect south- southeasterly winds around 5-10 kts through the period. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 76 94 77 93 / 10 50 10 60 Meridian 75 95 75 94 / 10 50 10 80 Vicksburg 77 95 77 94 / 0 30 10 50 Hattiesburg 77 96 77 96 / 10 50 10 50 Natchez 77 93 76 94 / 0 30 0 40 Greenville 79 96 79 94 / 0 20 20 60 Greenwood 78 95 78 93 / 0 30 20 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-054-059- 060.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ039-045-046-050>052-055>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

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