Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 4:02 PM   Moonset 1:25 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 324 Am Pdt Mon Jun 17 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 2 to 4 ft through Tuesday afternoon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.36 kt at 212 pm Monday. Seas 4 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 4.81 kt at 242 am Tuesday. Seas 4 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 2.36 kt at 304 pm Tuesday. Seas 4 ft.

PZZ200 324 Am Pdt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure offshore will persist through the week with increasing northerlies across the coastal waters.

FXUS66 KPQR 170335 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 835 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Updated aviation discussion and short term discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure maintains cool and showery conditions today, with a chance of thunderstorms across much of the area this afternoon and evening. A few showers linger into Monday then much warmer and drier weather returns Tuesday through the end of next week.

UPDATE
Sunday evening...Radar and surface weather observations across northwest OR and southwest WA as of 830 PM Sunday depicted decreasing showery activity. While scattered thunderstorms did develop between 3-7 PM, have seen little to no lightning activity since then as diurnal heating wanes. Given the surface-based nature of these storms, do not expect anymore thunderstorm activity for the rest of the night. That said, stronger showers Sunday evening will produce brief heavy downpours with rainfall rates up to 0.25 in/hr.
-TK

SHORT TERM
Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday...Radar imagery as of 2 PM PST shows showers pushing into western Oregon and SW Washington just east of the Coast Range and Willapa Hills. The center of the positively-tilted upper level trough that has been impacting the PacNW this weekend has moved into southern Washington today with the axis slowly approaching the coast from the eastern Pacific. Instability is building as the trough is impacting the region with SPC mesoanalysis indicating 250+ J/kg MUCAPE across the majority of NW Oregon and SW Washington with an area of 500+ J/kg MUCAPE west of the Coast Range. CAPE will continue to increase over the next few hours with thunderstorm chances into the early evening hours. Expect heavy rain, some lightning, small hail, and locally gusty winds with any strong cell or thunderstorm that forms. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday under the influence of the trough with inland highs in the mid to upper 60s and 50s along the coast.
Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be on the cooler side again with 40s in the lowlands.

The trough will finally move through eastern Oregon into the northern Rockies Monday. A few showers are possible throughout the day, mainly over the higher terrain, with temperatures similar or a few degrees warmer than today. By Tuesday, ensembles remain in good agreement that troughing begins weakening, bringing the return of dry weather everywhere with temperatures warming back to near normal for mid June, low 70s for the interior lowlands and 60s for the coast. -HEC

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...A significant warming trend remains on track for Wednesday through Friday of this week. Ensemble guidance continues indicating a Rex Block type pattern emerging by Wednesday over the West with an upper level ridge over western Canada and a trough over California.
Temperatures are forecast to rise into the 80s on Wednesday, with Thursday and Friday peaking as the warmest days. NBM indicates high confidence (80-95% chance) of temperatures over 80 degrees through Saturday for the interior lowlands.
Probabilities for temperatures reaching 90 degrees or higher have increased for Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, there's now a 50-60% chance for most of the Willamette Valley from Salem north and 20-45% chance south of Salem. Probabilities have also increased for 95+ degrees with a 20-30% probability for the general Portland/Vancouver metro area.

WPC 500mb clusters continue to indicate an approaching trough will push the upper ridge east into the central US with heights lowering over the PacNW on Saturday, which could lower temperatures by a few degrees to the low to mid 80s. By Sunday, clusters show enough agreement that heights will lower enough to bring temperatures back to near normal in the 70s. However, there is enough uncertainty in the specifics of the trough along with amount of moisture on whether any precipitation will be possible. Current NBM forecast has around a 15-20% probability for the coast and higher elevations, though accumulation seems to be limited at this time. -HEC

AVIATION
Widespread rain showers continuing to diminish through 06Z Monday across the airspace. However, isolated showers will persist through at least 15Z Monday over the Cascades and Coast ranges. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions but could see some backbuilding clouds moving eastward off the Cascades, resulting in a 20%-30% probability of MVFR CIGs between 12Z-18Z Monday for inland locations.

The coast will have around a 50-60% probability for MVFR conditions starting around 06Z-08Z Monday at KAST and spreading southward towards KONP through 10Z-12Z Monday. Through the same time period (06Z-12Z Monday), the coast will also have a 20%-30% probability for IFR/LIFR conditions.

Starting around 18Z-20Z Monday, any lowered conditions will start to improve to VFR across the airspace which is expected to persist through at least 06Z Tuesday.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Showers continue to diminish with VFR conditions. 20% probability of MVFR CIGs between 12Z-18Z Monday with backbuilding eastward off the Cascades. Any lowered flight conditions will start to dissipate around 18Z Monday with VFR expected to dominate through at least 06Z Tuesday. /42

MARINE
Seas around 5 to 7 ft at 9 to 11 seconds for the near future. Northwesterly winds currently strengthening to just under Small Craft Advisory criteria this evening, lasting through the night. A few gusts above SCA criteria may be possible at times.
Next chance at more impactful conditions will be Tuesday night, but uncertainty still remains high as it looks to be another marginal wind-driven event. Looking forward, marginal SCA winds look possible from Tuesday evening onward, with breezy marginal winds possible until at least the weekend. -JH/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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