Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 1:35 AM   Moonset 2:06 PM

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ANZ636 York River- 109 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Rest of tonight - W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. Sat - W winds 5 kt, becoming S late. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot late. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Sun - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning. Mon night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers.

ANZ600 109 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains overhead today before sliding offshore for Sunday. An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the first week of june.

FXUS61 KAKQ 010521 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 121 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds over the area tonight into Saturday with dry conditions expected. A weak low system will bring the chance for showers and a few storms late Sunday into Monday. Warm and more humid conditions are expected by the mid to late portion of next week with the potential for daily scattered showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Chilly start to the day.

- Continued dry and a bit warmer today.

The latest sfc analysis indicates ~1025 mb sfc high pressure centered over N NC. Temps as of 115 AM ranged from the upper 40s NW to the lower 50s SE with mid-upper 50s along the coast. High pressure lingers over the area today, gradually moving offshore this evening into tonight. Given high pressure overhead and clear skies, expect a chilly start to the day with morning lows in the mid 40s inland, lower 50s in urban areas, and mid- upper 50s closer to the coast. However, expect a pleasant warm- up into the lower 80s this afternoon with pleasantly low humidity and light winds. Thin cirrus gradually increase in coverage from W to E late this afternoon into tonight.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- There is a chance for showers and storms late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night into Monday.

The latest 12Z/31 models are in decent agreement with the upper ridge flattening and shifting off the coast on Sunday, as a weakening shortwave traverses across the region Sunday night/early Monday. Instability parameters are rather weak, but with some semblance of a cold pool aloft, will maintain 30-40% PoPs late Sun/Sun night across the north tapered to ~20% PoPs in the south. Partly/variably cloudy Sunday with highs around 80F NW to the mid 80s SE. Dew pts will be higher, but not exactly humid in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The models show increasing disagreement for Monday, with the NAM/GFS lingering precip and moisture while the ECWMF shows more a subsidence zone developing as the upper trough shifts off the coast. Given the upper level pattern, will go a bit drier than the NAM/GFS but will still have lingering slight chc PoPs (~20%) for most areas. Highs lower 80s near the coast to the mid 80s inland.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Turning more humid with daily chances for showers and storms mid to late week.

Aloft, weak upper ridging is expected Tuesday, gradually breaking down mid to late week as an anomalous upper trough moves from the upper midwest to the Great Lakes and NE/mid Atlantic. There remains a fair amount of model spread with respect to timing and and location of the main features, so uncertainty is still rather high as to how much moisture reaches the local area, especially Tue-Wed. Overall, will have PoPs lowest Tue, ramping up later Wed through Thu. The 12Z/31 ECMWF would suggest a drier forecast until Thu while the GFS shows at least chc PoPs Tue-Thu and dry Friday. The forecast will follow close to the NBM given the disagreement, favoring mainly 20% PoPs Tue, 30-50% later Wed/Thu, and ~30% Friday. Temperatures will be near to a little above average with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s through the period.

AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 115 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions and light and variable winds continue through the 06z taf period. High pressure centered over the area gradually moves offshore this afternoon. Clear skies outside of a few thin cirrus linger through the day before cirrus thickens overnight with BKN skies by Sun morning.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of Sun, with a low chance for showers/storms late Sun through Sun night (highest chance RIC-SBY). Mainly dry and VFR Mon and Tue with a minimal chance (20% or less) of afternoon/evening showers/storms. Unsettled weather returns from mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms.

MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

-High pressure will build over the region this weekend with light offshore flow expected.

-An area of low pressure will arrive late in the weekend into early next week with southerly flow increasing with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure that is centered over Eastern portions of the Ohio Valley this afternoon will continue to push into the area waters tonight and Saturday. This will continue the trend seen this afternoon of the weakening Northerly flow, which is currently around 15 kt on the Bay and southern coastal waters. As the high builds eastward, expect the westerly winds to drop back to 5 - 10 kt tonight and tomorrow. By Saturday night the area of high pressure will slide off the coast allowing the flow to turn back to the south ahead of an approaching low pressure system that arrives late in the weekend into Monday. This will kick the winds back up to the 10 - 15 kt range with some showers and thunderstorms expected.

Conditions should remain benign into the middle of next week as high pressure build southward through the Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and Wednesday. The flow will turn to a northerly or northeasterly flow, but with the pressure gradient relaxed, not anticipating wind above 15 kt. Overall for the period not anticipating any conditions that would require SCA headlines at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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York Point
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Sat -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:18 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:34 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Quarter Point
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Sat -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:12 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:23 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 PM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Quarter Point, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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