Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Manor, VA
November 28, 2023 5:13 AM EST (10:13 UTC)
Sunrise 6:55AM Sunset 4:50PM Moonrise 5:42PM Moonset 8:25AM
ANZ636 York River- 400 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Through 7 am..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft, diminishing to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of rain after midnight.
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Through 7 am..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft, diminishing to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ600 400 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a dry cold front moves through this morning, ushering in the coldest airmass of the season for today into Wednesday. Temperatures moderate late week into the weekend with the next chance for rain arriving Friday and again Sunday into Monday.
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a dry cold front moves through this morning, ushering in the coldest airmass of the season for today into Wednesday. Temperatures moderate late week into the weekend with the next chance for rain arriving Friday and again Sunday into Monday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 280931 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 431 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
SYNOPSIS
A dry cold front moves through this morning, ushering in the coldest airmass of the season today into Wednesday. Temperatures moderate late week into the weekend with the next chance for rain arriving Friday and again Sunday into Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...
The latest analysis indicates ~1030mb sfc high pressure centered from the southern plains to the western Gulf of Mexico, with strong low pressure across eastern Canada. Aloft, a deep area of low pressure is anchored over Hudson Bay Canada, with the trough extending south through the Great Lakes and OH Valley and into the NE CONUS. Other than some high clouds streaming ENE into far southern VA and NE NC, skies are clear with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to the mid 30s for most of the FA. Winds are generally 5mph or less from the WSW out ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the NW. Temperatures through sunrise likely fall a few more degrees w/ lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
The cold front to our NW will move through the region later this morning, pushing off the coast during the afternoon. This will usher in another round of markedly colder and drier air.
Gusty W-NW develop late this morning through the aftn, ranging from 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph inland and up to 35 mph over the Eastern Shore and along the coast. Highs will struggle to reach 40F across the far north, with low- mid 40s across central portions of the area, and mid- upper 40s south.
The cold temperatures in combination with the breezy conditions will bring a "winter chill" to the area, with wind chills staying in the 30s during the afternoon hours. With shortwave energy passing through the region, expect SCT clouds to develop later this morning through the aftn,with a period of BKN cloud cover even likely over NE sections. Any remaining clouds should diminish after sunset with mainly clear skies tonight. The sfc high is progged to be ~1028mb tonight, centered from the Gulf coast states to the Carolinas and southern VA by 12Z/Wed. For much of the local area, this is not an ideal radiational cooling setup, with winds continuing through the evening and even towards daybreak into NE portions of the FA. As such, will forecast the coldest temperatures well inland and over rural areas of southern VA and NE NC, with somewhat warmer readings closer to the Bay and across the eastern shore. Nonetheless, this will be the coldest night so far this season, with lows ranging from 15-20F across the piedmont and rural interior VA/NE NC, to the low-mid 20s closer to the coast (and in the upper 20s at the immediate coast). Urban places like Richmond will tend to stay above 20F.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EST Tuesday...
Winds become SW ~10 mph Wednesday with gusts to 15-20 mph and highs in the mid 40s most places. This will once again keep wind chills cold (albeit not as cold as today) all day with afternoon wind chills in the upper 30s to around 40F. Lows Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be warmer compared to the previous night but still cold in the mid- upper 20s inland and upper 20s/lower 30s in urban areas and along the coast. High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern (centered just south of the local area) during the day on Thursday.
Temperatures moderate Thursday afternoon into the mid to upper 50s for much of the area due to southwest flow at the surface and ridging developing aloft. Partly-mostly sunny with just some high clouds. Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds Thu night and lows mostly in the 30s to around 40F.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 405 AM EST Tuesday...
The center of high pressure will be well offshore by Friday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure will be tracking ENE from the the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley by aftn. Rain chances increase from west to east during the day on Friday with the highest chances area wide likely during the afternoon/evening hours. The trough aloft looks to dampen with time as it reaches the Appalachians later Friday, so even with a period of likely PoPs Fri aftn into Fri evening, QPF amounts are not expected to be a lot, generally in the 0.10" to 0.25" range. It will be mild Friday with highs ranging from the lower 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. A cold front moves through the region Friday night, bringing an end to any remaining precipitation for most of the region, though the trend is for the front to stall just S of the CWA on Saturday which would keep a fair amount of clouds around. Raised low temperatures Fri night/Sat morning (lows upper 30s NW to the lower 50s SE). Will have ~20% PoPs over NE NC Sat closer to the front. Unsettled weather returns again Saturday night into Monday as another shortwave approaches. The operational GFS and ECMWF are quite different at this range and w/ a fairly progressive flow aloft, a lot of uncertainty prevails for this period. Will have chc PoPs all zones later Sat night through Sunday and into Monday along with mild conditions (lows Sat night in the 40s to around 50F with highs Sunday in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE). Highs Monday upper 50s NW to the 60s elsewhere.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 100 AM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions are expected through the 06z/28 TAF period.
Mainly clear/SKC sky prevails early this morning with W to NW winds generally 5-10kt or less. A strong trough aloft will pass across the region late this morning/early aftn and this will allow SCT clouds at 5-8kt ft (probably going BKN for a few hrs at SBY). It will be rather windy starting later this morning with W or WSW winds, with the winds peaking from 17-21Z when they shift to the WNW and gust to 25-30 kt at all the main terminals. Diminishing winds from the NW this evening and mainly SKC.
Outlook: High pressure becomes centered S of the region Wed through Thursday, bringing dry WX and VFR conditions. Winds shift around to the SW and will average around 10 kt both days.
The next chance for rain (and flight restrictions) will be Friday, then drying out Saturday.
MARINE
As of 425 AM EST Tuesday...
Early this morning, a dry cold front was pushing into the mtns, while sfc high pressure was centered over the midwest/cntrl Plains. Winds were generally W 5-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft.
A strong upper-level disturbance and associated cold front will usher in the coldest air of the season for today into Wed morning. This strong cold advection, in combination with deep mixing, will lead to a period of strong SCA conditions, with W then NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt possible across most of the local waters. SCAs are in effect for all marine zones for this event into early Wed morning (except the nrn coastal water zones; see forthcoming discussion). The one exception is over the nrn coastal water zones where the tightest pressure gradient will reside. Winds of 20-30 kt and gusts 35-40 kt are expected here (highest out 20 nm) and the Gale Warning for these zones remains in effect from later this morning into tonight. A SCA will be needed after the Gale Warning drops off, due to lingering 15-25 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas. Given the offshore component to the wind continuing, seas will only increase to 4-6 ft N and 4-5 ft S despite the strong winds. Waves in the Bay increase to 3-4 ft, with 2-3 ft in the Rivers and Currituck Sound.
Winds diminish to 10-15 kt for Wed and turn to the SW by the aftn. SW winds then increase to 15-20 kt over the Bay and ~20 kt over the coastal waters Wed evening into early Thu morning as another upper-level disturbance slides through the area.
Another round of SCAs may be possible for at least the Ches Bay during this period. Sub SCA conditions then expected for Thu through Sat.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-638-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ633- 635>637-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 431 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
SYNOPSIS
A dry cold front moves through this morning, ushering in the coldest airmass of the season today into Wednesday. Temperatures moderate late week into the weekend with the next chance for rain arriving Friday and again Sunday into Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...
The latest analysis indicates ~1030mb sfc high pressure centered from the southern plains to the western Gulf of Mexico, with strong low pressure across eastern Canada. Aloft, a deep area of low pressure is anchored over Hudson Bay Canada, with the trough extending south through the Great Lakes and OH Valley and into the NE CONUS. Other than some high clouds streaming ENE into far southern VA and NE NC, skies are clear with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to the mid 30s for most of the FA. Winds are generally 5mph or less from the WSW out ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the NW. Temperatures through sunrise likely fall a few more degrees w/ lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
The cold front to our NW will move through the region later this morning, pushing off the coast during the afternoon. This will usher in another round of markedly colder and drier air.
Gusty W-NW develop late this morning through the aftn, ranging from 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph inland and up to 35 mph over the Eastern Shore and along the coast. Highs will struggle to reach 40F across the far north, with low- mid 40s across central portions of the area, and mid- upper 40s south.
The cold temperatures in combination with the breezy conditions will bring a "winter chill" to the area, with wind chills staying in the 30s during the afternoon hours. With shortwave energy passing through the region, expect SCT clouds to develop later this morning through the aftn,with a period of BKN cloud cover even likely over NE sections. Any remaining clouds should diminish after sunset with mainly clear skies tonight. The sfc high is progged to be ~1028mb tonight, centered from the Gulf coast states to the Carolinas and southern VA by 12Z/Wed. For much of the local area, this is not an ideal radiational cooling setup, with winds continuing through the evening and even towards daybreak into NE portions of the FA. As such, will forecast the coldest temperatures well inland and over rural areas of southern VA and NE NC, with somewhat warmer readings closer to the Bay and across the eastern shore. Nonetheless, this will be the coldest night so far this season, with lows ranging from 15-20F across the piedmont and rural interior VA/NE NC, to the low-mid 20s closer to the coast (and in the upper 20s at the immediate coast). Urban places like Richmond will tend to stay above 20F.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EST Tuesday...
Winds become SW ~10 mph Wednesday with gusts to 15-20 mph and highs in the mid 40s most places. This will once again keep wind chills cold (albeit not as cold as today) all day with afternoon wind chills in the upper 30s to around 40F. Lows Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be warmer compared to the previous night but still cold in the mid- upper 20s inland and upper 20s/lower 30s in urban areas and along the coast. High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern (centered just south of the local area) during the day on Thursday.
Temperatures moderate Thursday afternoon into the mid to upper 50s for much of the area due to southwest flow at the surface and ridging developing aloft. Partly-mostly sunny with just some high clouds. Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds Thu night and lows mostly in the 30s to around 40F.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 405 AM EST Tuesday...
The center of high pressure will be well offshore by Friday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure will be tracking ENE from the the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley by aftn. Rain chances increase from west to east during the day on Friday with the highest chances area wide likely during the afternoon/evening hours. The trough aloft looks to dampen with time as it reaches the Appalachians later Friday, so even with a period of likely PoPs Fri aftn into Fri evening, QPF amounts are not expected to be a lot, generally in the 0.10" to 0.25" range. It will be mild Friday with highs ranging from the lower 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. A cold front moves through the region Friday night, bringing an end to any remaining precipitation for most of the region, though the trend is for the front to stall just S of the CWA on Saturday which would keep a fair amount of clouds around. Raised low temperatures Fri night/Sat morning (lows upper 30s NW to the lower 50s SE). Will have ~20% PoPs over NE NC Sat closer to the front. Unsettled weather returns again Saturday night into Monday as another shortwave approaches. The operational GFS and ECMWF are quite different at this range and w/ a fairly progressive flow aloft, a lot of uncertainty prevails for this period. Will have chc PoPs all zones later Sat night through Sunday and into Monday along with mild conditions (lows Sat night in the 40s to around 50F with highs Sunday in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE). Highs Monday upper 50s NW to the 60s elsewhere.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 100 AM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions are expected through the 06z/28 TAF period.
Mainly clear/SKC sky prevails early this morning with W to NW winds generally 5-10kt or less. A strong trough aloft will pass across the region late this morning/early aftn and this will allow SCT clouds at 5-8kt ft (probably going BKN for a few hrs at SBY). It will be rather windy starting later this morning with W or WSW winds, with the winds peaking from 17-21Z when they shift to the WNW and gust to 25-30 kt at all the main terminals. Diminishing winds from the NW this evening and mainly SKC.
Outlook: High pressure becomes centered S of the region Wed through Thursday, bringing dry WX and VFR conditions. Winds shift around to the SW and will average around 10 kt both days.
The next chance for rain (and flight restrictions) will be Friday, then drying out Saturday.
MARINE
As of 425 AM EST Tuesday...
Early this morning, a dry cold front was pushing into the mtns, while sfc high pressure was centered over the midwest/cntrl Plains. Winds were generally W 5-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft.
A strong upper-level disturbance and associated cold front will usher in the coldest air of the season for today into Wed morning. This strong cold advection, in combination with deep mixing, will lead to a period of strong SCA conditions, with W then NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt possible across most of the local waters. SCAs are in effect for all marine zones for this event into early Wed morning (except the nrn coastal water zones; see forthcoming discussion). The one exception is over the nrn coastal water zones where the tightest pressure gradient will reside. Winds of 20-30 kt and gusts 35-40 kt are expected here (highest out 20 nm) and the Gale Warning for these zones remains in effect from later this morning into tonight. A SCA will be needed after the Gale Warning drops off, due to lingering 15-25 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas. Given the offshore component to the wind continuing, seas will only increase to 4-6 ft N and 4-5 ft S despite the strong winds. Waves in the Bay increase to 3-4 ft, with 2-3 ft in the Rivers and Currituck Sound.
Winds diminish to 10-15 kt for Wed and turn to the SW by the aftn. SW winds then increase to 15-20 kt over the Bay and ~20 kt over the coastal waters Wed evening into early Thu morning as another upper-level disturbance slides through the area.
Another round of SCAs may be possible for at least the Ches Bay during this period. Sub SCA conditions then expected for Thu through Sat.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-638-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ633- 635>637-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA | 6 sm | 19 min | SW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 27°F | 86% | 29.99 | |
| KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA | 7 sm | 78 min | WSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 27°F | 80% | 29.99 | |
| KFAF FELKER AAF,VA | 11 sm | 18 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 23°F | 60% | 29.95 | |
| KNGU NORFOLK NS (CHAMBERS FLD),VA | 17 sm | 14 min | WSW 08 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 37°F | 27°F | 65% | 30.00 | |
| KORF NORFOLK INTL,VA | 22 sm | 22 min | SW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 34°F | 28°F | 80% | 29.99 |
Wind History from PHF
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EST -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST 2.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:03 PM EST -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:41 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 09:43 PM EST 2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EST -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST 2.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:03 PM EST -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:41 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 09:43 PM EST 2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0 |
| 3 am |
| -0.2 |
| 4 am |
| -0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.6 |
| 9 am |
| 3 |
| 10 am |
| 2.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Messick Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:57 AM EST -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST 2.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:57 PM EST -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:41 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 09:24 PM EST 2.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:57 AM EST -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST 2.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:57 PM EST -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:41 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 09:24 PM EST 2.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Messick Point, Back River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| -0 |
| 3 am |
| -0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 2.7 |
| 9 am |
| 2.9 |
| 10 am |
| 2.8 |
| 11 am |
| 2.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Wakefield, VA,
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