NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Main concern for the near term period will be over the next several hours as cloud/rain debris from an upstream, remnant convective complex exits east of the region, allowing potential redevelopment of mainly showers with some embedded thunder just ahead of an approaching cold front. Recent day cloud phase distinction satellite imagery has revealed slightly more robust glaciating cloud tops just west of the I-75 corridor. However, the widespread cloud debris has kept the mid- levels fairly capped which will limit the overall storm intensity, regardless of the more impressive mid and upper-level dynamics at play.
Anticipate any remaining convective activity to subside following sunset as surface- based CAPE diminishes.

The cold front will eventually move east through the area later this evening and overnight, with a subsequent surface trough expected to linger across the Lower Great Lakes region on Saturday. This trough could kick off some additional isolated shower/thunderstorm chances in the afternoon hours, particularly across far NE OH and NW PA, though moisture will be much more limited. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average on Saturday, with highs in the lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Quiet weather for Sunday and Monday as high pressure begins overhead and drifts to the east. An upper trough and associated cold front begins moving out of the central U.S. and into the Great Lakes Monday night, with modest lift and moisture return ahead of the trough allowing low POPs for showers to begin encroaching from the west. Most of the area should remain rain-free all of Monday night but some activity may push into Northwest Ohio late. Highs on Sunday will surge well into the 80s, with highs on Monday near 90 or into the low 90s as 850mb temperatures surge to around +20C. Heat index values in the low to mid 90s are possible Monday afternoon.
Overnight lows will dip well into the 60s Sunday night but will struggle to cool below the upper 60s/lower 70s Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A trough is expected to work west to east across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday evening, pushing a weak cold front into the local area. Have POPs increasing to 40-60% Tuesday into Tuesday evening as a result. The airmass looks to become rather sultry once again, though poor mid-level lapse rates, the strongest forcing passing to our north, and potential for rather extensive cloud cover makes coverage of convection and any heavy rain/severe weather potential highly uncertain. Models have actually lost some agreement on the exact timing of the front and amount/placement of QPF, so POPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening have been lowered a bit from the prior cycle. While the front should shift to our south Tuesday night into Wednesday we will be beneath somewhat active flow aloft between ridging off the East Coast and troughing stretching form the upper Midwest to southeastern Canada. This type of pattern often yields intermittent chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms, so didn't carry a completely dry forecast for Wednesday or Thursday. However, the POPs are low and suspect those days will feature much more dry time than not with overall light QPF amounts. Deep-layer flow turns more south-southwesterly into Friday and will attempt to draw moisture (including some remnant moisture from Beryl) towards the region. Given this, have chance POPs returning to the forecast beginning Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be near to slightly above average for the extended. Humidity will be noticeable on Tuesday and perhaps Friday, though dew points shouldn't be too bad for Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. In this update, replaced all mention of vcts with vcsh as the thunderstorm threat continues to decrease. Much of the current radar returns are relatively light and are not posing any impact to vsbys. There could be some redevelopment behind this cloud/rain shield later this afternoon into the early evening, though confidence is low.
There could be some isolated non-VFR conditions associated with low cigs and/or vsbys from patchy fog tonight, particularly inland, though confidence was too low to include in this update.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest early this afternoon, 5 to 10 knots, with the exception of CLE/ERI where a lake breeze has shifted winds out of the northwest, 5 to 10 knots. South to southwest winds will gradually favor a more southwest to west direction through tonight into Saturday, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots by early Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night.

MARINE
Variable winds on the lake due to a lake breeze this afternoon will shift southerly this evening and then west-southwest late tonight into Saturday behind a cold front. Speeds will increase to around 15 knots late tonight into Saturday. Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet over the open waters of the central basin on Saturday. Waves in the nearshore waters currently do not necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for late tonight into Saturday though the rougher conditions will certainly be noticeable. Tranquil marine conditions are expected to return Saturday night and persist through much of next week. There is a low risk for a thunderstorm over the lake ahead of a cold front this evening. Otherwise, a few thunderstorms may be possible over the lake Tuesday into Tuesday night with the next cold front.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.