Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Timber, MT
July 3, 2024 3:18 AM MDT (09:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 9:18 PM Moonrise 2:02 AM Moonset 6:51 PM |
FXUS65 KBYZ 030739 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 139 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
DISCUSSION
Through Thursday Night...
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms continue this morning, mainly in the southern zones and mountains. An approaching trough will bring a cold front through the region today, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to 40-70%. A strong thunderstorm or two is possible in southeast MT and northeast WY.
Stronger storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts. Highs today will be upper 60s to 70s today, with the cooler temps out west. The trough will progress into the Dakotas this evening, leaving some moisture behind. As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours with the probabilities between 15-50%, highest east of Billings. The latest NBM QPF probability of 0.25" or greater is still 10-50%, highest in the far east. Snow levels over the Absaroka/Beartooth mtns will drop down to ~9,500 overnight, snow showers and light accumulations are possible.
Thursday, northwest flow and weak energy will settle over the Northern Rockies. The chance for showers and weak thunderstorms is 20-70% (lowest west of Billings), Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. The chance for precipitation will decrease by mid- afternoon, as the last pieces of energy depart the region. Dry conditions are expected Thursday night for Independence Day celebrations. High temperatures will be in the 70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Matos
Friday through Wednesday...
Friday begins with Montana being well sandwiched between a prominent upper ridge hovering over the west coast, and a brod upper trough sitting over the Midwest. This entire period could see weak shortwaves passing through the eastern part of Montana that each time brings with it a small chance for showers and storms, but moisture will be limited with these and the shear is weak, leading to any showers or storms that form to be relatively lackluster. Saturday currently has the highest chance to see some precipitation, but only relatively speaking, as Southeast MT only has a 20% chance for precipitation that afternoon and evening.
The bigger story likely sits on the horizon of this period as we look at the second half of next week. Confidence is very high by the second half of week to see the ridge over the west coast finally move inland and hover over the Rockie's. This will bring about very hot temperatures, with at least a small chance for temperatures to reach 100F Wednesday through Saturday. Enjoy the cooler temperatures while you can over the next week.
Vertz
AVIATION
A few scattered showers and weak thunderstorms continue south of KBIL this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop this morning and into the afternoon as another disturbance works through the region. A few thunderstorms could be strong near KSHR, the strongest storms will be capable of producing strong winds and hail as large as quarters. Mountain obscurations will be possible with any associated showers and thunderstorms.
TS POTENTIAL TIMES TODAY:
KBIL: 19z-00z (30% chance)
KLVM: 18z-06z (40% chance)
KMLS: 18z-06z (40% chance)
KSHR: 18z-06z (60% chance, risk of strong wind & hail)
Matos
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 076 053/076 052/084 058/082 055/083 056/091 059/093 4/T 33/T 01/U 12/T 10/U 00/U 00/U LVM 072 045/075 046/081 051/082 048/082 051/089 054/091 4/T 32/T 01/U 02/T 10/U 00/U 00/U HDN 077 051/076 049/084 052/082 050/083 052/091 055/094 4/T 44/T 11/U 22/T 10/U 00/U 00/U MLS 076 055/075 054/081 057/081 056/083 056/088 058/091 3/T 45/T 11/U 22/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 075 053/074 053/081 057/081 054/081 055/088 058/091 5/T 45/T 11/U 22/T 10/U 00/U 00/U BHK 076 052/074 052/079 054/078 052/079 053/084 056/087 3/T 47/T 11/U 22/T 01/U 00/U 00/U SHR 073 047/074 046/081 050/082 049/080 050/088 053/091 6/T 44/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 139 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
DISCUSSION
Through Thursday Night...
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms continue this morning, mainly in the southern zones and mountains. An approaching trough will bring a cold front through the region today, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to 40-70%. A strong thunderstorm or two is possible in southeast MT and northeast WY.
Stronger storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts. Highs today will be upper 60s to 70s today, with the cooler temps out west. The trough will progress into the Dakotas this evening, leaving some moisture behind. As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours with the probabilities between 15-50%, highest east of Billings. The latest NBM QPF probability of 0.25" or greater is still 10-50%, highest in the far east. Snow levels over the Absaroka/Beartooth mtns will drop down to ~9,500 overnight, snow showers and light accumulations are possible.
Thursday, northwest flow and weak energy will settle over the Northern Rockies. The chance for showers and weak thunderstorms is 20-70% (lowest west of Billings), Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. The chance for precipitation will decrease by mid- afternoon, as the last pieces of energy depart the region. Dry conditions are expected Thursday night for Independence Day celebrations. High temperatures will be in the 70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Matos
Friday through Wednesday...
Friday begins with Montana being well sandwiched between a prominent upper ridge hovering over the west coast, and a brod upper trough sitting over the Midwest. This entire period could see weak shortwaves passing through the eastern part of Montana that each time brings with it a small chance for showers and storms, but moisture will be limited with these and the shear is weak, leading to any showers or storms that form to be relatively lackluster. Saturday currently has the highest chance to see some precipitation, but only relatively speaking, as Southeast MT only has a 20% chance for precipitation that afternoon and evening.
The bigger story likely sits on the horizon of this period as we look at the second half of next week. Confidence is very high by the second half of week to see the ridge over the west coast finally move inland and hover over the Rockie's. This will bring about very hot temperatures, with at least a small chance for temperatures to reach 100F Wednesday through Saturday. Enjoy the cooler temperatures while you can over the next week.
Vertz
AVIATION
A few scattered showers and weak thunderstorms continue south of KBIL this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop this morning and into the afternoon as another disturbance works through the region. A few thunderstorms could be strong near KSHR, the strongest storms will be capable of producing strong winds and hail as large as quarters. Mountain obscurations will be possible with any associated showers and thunderstorms.
TS POTENTIAL TIMES TODAY:
KBIL: 19z-00z (30% chance)
KLVM: 18z-06z (40% chance)
KMLS: 18z-06z (40% chance)
KSHR: 18z-06z (60% chance, risk of strong wind & hail)
Matos
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 076 053/076 052/084 058/082 055/083 056/091 059/093 4/T 33/T 01/U 12/T 10/U 00/U 00/U LVM 072 045/075 046/081 051/082 048/082 051/089 054/091 4/T 32/T 01/U 02/T 10/U 00/U 00/U HDN 077 051/076 049/084 052/082 050/083 052/091 055/094 4/T 44/T 11/U 22/T 10/U 00/U 00/U MLS 076 055/075 054/081 057/081 056/083 056/088 058/091 3/T 45/T 11/U 22/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 075 053/074 053/081 057/081 054/081 055/088 058/091 5/T 45/T 11/U 22/T 10/U 00/U 00/U BHK 076 052/074 052/079 054/078 052/079 053/084 056/087 3/T 47/T 11/U 22/T 01/U 00/U 00/U SHR 073 047/074 046/081 050/082 049/080 050/088 053/091 6/T 44/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KLVM
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLVM
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLVM
Wind History graph: LVM
(wind in knots)
Billings, MT,
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