Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Timber, MT
July 2, 2024 11:46 PM MDT (05:46 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 9:18 PM Moonrise 1:26 AM Moonset 5:37 PM |
FXUS65 KBYZ 030234 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 834 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
UPDATE
Quick update to the forecast for latest model trends of overnight convection potential. Most convection will diminish as the sun sets this evening, and have already seen a marked downtrend in convective strength over the past few hours. That said there is enough energy floating around that an isolated shower or thunderstorm threat could continue into the early morning hours, mainly over northeast zones or along the southern state line areas. Winds will also weaken as the surface inversion sets in with sunset. Rest of the forecast is in pretty good shape with lows tonight mainly in the 50s for the lower elevations. 30s and even some lower 20s forecast fo area mountains tonight. Those planning travel over the Beartooth Pass tonight through tomorrow morning should be alert for a dusting of snow and potential slick spots until the sun melts things off around 9-10am. Chambers
DISCUSSION
Through Wednesday Night...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were moving northwest to southeast over the area this afternoon with the region situated under unstable northwest flow aloft. The strongest thunderstorms are capable of producing wind gusts up to 40 mph and small hail. Expect the shower/thunderstorm activity to gradually decrease during the evening hours.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase (40-75%) again on Wednesday as a trough and associated cold front drop south and east through the area. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to range from the upper 60s over the west to the 70s elsewhere. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible over the far southeast and down into northern Wyoming with strong winds and large hail the main threats. As the trough shifts east into the Dakotas and begins to wrap up, moisture and energy over the area will keep shower and thunderstorm chances continuing into Wednesday night.
Latest probabilities of receiving 0.25 inches or more of rainfall Wed-Wed night range from 10-50%, highest over the southeast. Snow levels drop towards 10,000 feet as well, with some light snow accumulations possible in the southern mountains. STP
Thursday through Tuesday...
SREF and Clusters agreed on wave moving out of the forecast area on Thursday with NW flow moving in behind the wave through Friday.
MLCAPEs were running around 500 J/kg over the E half of the area with no significant shear. Moisture will wrap around over the area behind the departing system on Thu. with 30-50% PoPs E of KBIL in the morning and more widespread PoPs during the afternoon, ranging from 20-30% in KLVM to KBIL to 40-70% E and S of KBIL. Highest PoPs will be over Fallon and Carter Counties. Thunderstorms are not expected to be strong based on the above. Probability of 0.25 inches or greater of precipitation was 10-15% E of KBIL on Thursday. Dry conditions are still expected for Thursday night for Fourth of July celebrations. Highs on Thu. will be in the 70s which is below normal for this time of year. A drier airmass will preclude precipitation for Friday and it will be warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s.
NW flow continues for the weekend. Backdoor cold front drops into the area on Saturday with a slight chance of precipitation over the far E and mountains in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Other than a slight chance of precipitation over the SW mountains Sunday afternoon, remainder of forecast period will be dry. A strong upper ridge moves into the region, but Clusters disagreed on placement of the upper ridge axis. For example, on Monday, Cluster 1 had the axis well off the to the W, while Cluster 4 had it moving into the Dakotas. This uncertainty could have forecast implications, so will need to watch for better model agreement. For now, had highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday. Arthur
AVIATION
In general, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period with W-NW winds gusting 15-25 knots decreasing this evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area will decrease this evening, with most activity ending by 03z.
Additional showers and thunderstorms develop over the area tomorrow as another disturbance works through the region. Mountain obscurations will be possible with any associated showers and thunderstorms. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 054/077 054/076 053/085 057/083 055/083 057/090 059/090 14/T 53/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/U LVM 047/073 044/074 046/082 051/083 050/083 052/088 054/090 14/T 52/T 11/U 01/U 01/U 00/U 00/U HDN 051/078 051/076 049/084 054/083 051/083 052/090 055/091 35/T 54/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/U MLS 053/077 055/075 054/082 057/081 055/083 056/087 059/088 44/T 55/T 11/U 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 053/077 053/074 053/082 057/082 055/081 055/088 058/088 26/T 55/T 11/U 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U BHK 051/078 051/073 052/080 054/078 052/080 052/083 055/085 44/T 46/T 11/U 12/T 11/U 00/U 00/U SHR 049/075 046/073 046/080 051/081 050/081 050/088 054/088 26/T 54/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 834 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
UPDATE
Quick update to the forecast for latest model trends of overnight convection potential. Most convection will diminish as the sun sets this evening, and have already seen a marked downtrend in convective strength over the past few hours. That said there is enough energy floating around that an isolated shower or thunderstorm threat could continue into the early morning hours, mainly over northeast zones or along the southern state line areas. Winds will also weaken as the surface inversion sets in with sunset. Rest of the forecast is in pretty good shape with lows tonight mainly in the 50s for the lower elevations. 30s and even some lower 20s forecast fo area mountains tonight. Those planning travel over the Beartooth Pass tonight through tomorrow morning should be alert for a dusting of snow and potential slick spots until the sun melts things off around 9-10am. Chambers
DISCUSSION
Through Wednesday Night...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were moving northwest to southeast over the area this afternoon with the region situated under unstable northwest flow aloft. The strongest thunderstorms are capable of producing wind gusts up to 40 mph and small hail. Expect the shower/thunderstorm activity to gradually decrease during the evening hours.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase (40-75%) again on Wednesday as a trough and associated cold front drop south and east through the area. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to range from the upper 60s over the west to the 70s elsewhere. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible over the far southeast and down into northern Wyoming with strong winds and large hail the main threats. As the trough shifts east into the Dakotas and begins to wrap up, moisture and energy over the area will keep shower and thunderstorm chances continuing into Wednesday night.
Latest probabilities of receiving 0.25 inches or more of rainfall Wed-Wed night range from 10-50%, highest over the southeast. Snow levels drop towards 10,000 feet as well, with some light snow accumulations possible in the southern mountains. STP
Thursday through Tuesday...
SREF and Clusters agreed on wave moving out of the forecast area on Thursday with NW flow moving in behind the wave through Friday.
MLCAPEs were running around 500 J/kg over the E half of the area with no significant shear. Moisture will wrap around over the area behind the departing system on Thu. with 30-50% PoPs E of KBIL in the morning and more widespread PoPs during the afternoon, ranging from 20-30% in KLVM to KBIL to 40-70% E and S of KBIL. Highest PoPs will be over Fallon and Carter Counties. Thunderstorms are not expected to be strong based on the above. Probability of 0.25 inches or greater of precipitation was 10-15% E of KBIL on Thursday. Dry conditions are still expected for Thursday night for Fourth of July celebrations. Highs on Thu. will be in the 70s which is below normal for this time of year. A drier airmass will preclude precipitation for Friday and it will be warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s.
NW flow continues for the weekend. Backdoor cold front drops into the area on Saturday with a slight chance of precipitation over the far E and mountains in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Other than a slight chance of precipitation over the SW mountains Sunday afternoon, remainder of forecast period will be dry. A strong upper ridge moves into the region, but Clusters disagreed on placement of the upper ridge axis. For example, on Monday, Cluster 1 had the axis well off the to the W, while Cluster 4 had it moving into the Dakotas. This uncertainty could have forecast implications, so will need to watch for better model agreement. For now, had highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday. Arthur
AVIATION
In general, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period with W-NW winds gusting 15-25 knots decreasing this evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area will decrease this evening, with most activity ending by 03z.
Additional showers and thunderstorms develop over the area tomorrow as another disturbance works through the region. Mountain obscurations will be possible with any associated showers and thunderstorms. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 054/077 054/076 053/085 057/083 055/083 057/090 059/090 14/T 53/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/U LVM 047/073 044/074 046/082 051/083 050/083 052/088 054/090 14/T 52/T 11/U 01/U 01/U 00/U 00/U HDN 051/078 051/076 049/084 054/083 051/083 052/090 055/091 35/T 54/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/U MLS 053/077 055/075 054/082 057/081 055/083 056/087 059/088 44/T 55/T 11/U 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 053/077 053/074 053/082 057/082 055/081 055/088 058/088 26/T 55/T 11/U 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U BHK 051/078 051/073 052/080 054/078 052/080 052/083 055/085 44/T 46/T 11/U 12/T 11/U 00/U 00/U SHR 049/075 046/073 046/080 051/081 050/081 050/088 054/088 26/T 54/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KLVM
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLVM
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLVM
Wind History graph: LVM
(wind in knots)
Billings, MT,
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