Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Union, WV
June 2, 2024 4:06 PM EDT (20:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 2:17 AM Moonset 3:36 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 021850 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States tonight and Monday. Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the region through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic region. A brief break in the wet weather pattern is expected behind the front on Friday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Key message:
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible tonight and Monday
Short wave over the Tennessee Valley will move slowly across east tonight. Low level winds will remain out of the southwest ahead of this feature then turn to the west and northwest. Will keep scattered showers in the forecast until the short wave trough moves through early Monday morning. The best coverage of precipitation will be this afternoon between 19Z/3PM and 00Z/8PM. Challenging to determine the probability of precipitation on Monday once the trough passes.
Precipitable water values have climbed just above an inch and surface dew points were in the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon.
Satellite images were showing a few breaks in the clouds. Locations that get the most heating may have CAPES around 500 J/kg and enough instability maintain isolated thunderstorms today and again Monday afternoon. Will keep patchy fog in the forecast overnight with the near surface air mass moist due to the rainfall today.
Mild dew points and cloud cover will hold minimum temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Expecting more sunshine then today on Monday afternoon and with a downslope component to the surface and low level wind, the foothills and piedmont will warm into the lower 80s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1205 PM EDT SUNDAY...
Key Points:
1. Temperatures will be above normal during this time period.
2. Precipitation chances will gradually increase through the period with Wednesday night seeing the greatest coverage with the arrival of a cold front.
A look at the 2 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows an upper ridge over the region Monday night. This ridge holds fast for Tuesday, but with a shortwave trough moving into the western Great Lakes region by Tuesday evening. For Wednesday, the east coast ridge weakens with its axis shifting east.
The western Great Lakes shortwave trough pivots such that it becomes negatively tilted with its axis reaching into parts of the Tennessee Valley. At the surface for Monday night, low pressure is expected to located over MT, with an associated cold front extending south along the lee of the Rockies. A weak surface high will be over the mid- Atlantic region. Tuesday into Wednesday, the high over the mid- Atlantic region is expected to shift into the western Atlantic while the low move east into central Ontario. By Wednesday evening, its associated cold front will be around the Mississippi River Valley region.
Output from the 2 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures around +16C across the area Tuesday through Thursday. Precipitable water values are expected to gradually increase through the Monday through Wednesday time period. On Monday, values are expected to range from 1.00 to 1.25 inch, and reach around 1.50 inch by Wednesday. This value will touch the low end of the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year climatology.
The above weather scenario points towards increasing chances of showers and storms in advance of an approaching cold front. On Tuesday, this activity will be primarily during the peak heating of the day and across the mountains. For Wednesday, coverage will continue to increase in coverage and time of occurrence.
Late Wednesday night look for very good coverage across the area, especially in the west, as a cold front crosses the area.
Temperatures across the region will average above normal for this time of year.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Points:
1. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Friday through the weekend.
2. Daily chances of at least showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two with coverage best over the mountains.
A look at the 2 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows for Thursday a negatively tilted shortwave trough inching eastward, such that its trough reaches the southern Appalachians. For Friday, not much movement is expected for the trough, however it is expected to deepen, and almost cut off from the northern flow across northern Canada. By Saturday, the trough is expected to expand in scope, with its orientation not changing all that much. However, its geographical range is expected to reach more of that of a longwave trough. A similarly persistent ridge is expected to be located over the Rockies. For Sunday, little change is expected in the overall synoptic pattern across CONUS. At the surface on Thursday, surface low pressure will be near James Bay with its associated cold front crossing our region during the morning. A reinforcing 850mb front will cross Thursday evening/night. Friday through Sunday, the surface low is expected to remain situated near the Ontario/Quebec border, with a ensemble averaging keeping a lee side trough/front over eastern VA south into SC.
Output from the 2 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures cooling a bit from mid-week, down to around +12C to +14C by Friday. Values remain around +12C to +14C through the weekend. Precipitable Water values are expected to gradually trend lower heading into the weekend. Expected values on Thursday to be in the 1.25 to 1.50 range. Friday through Sunday, values around 1.00 inch will be more common.
Look for a cooler period and one that will see daily chances of at least showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, a general pattern of upper level troughiness takes up residency over the area. However, on average, coverage should be greatest over the mountains each day.
While coverage of the precipitation will not be continuous through this entire time period, confidence in the timing of the periods of greater coverage versus lesser coverage of precipitation is low at this time.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Short wave over the Tennessee Valley will move slowly across east tonight. Low level winds will remain out of the southwest ahead of this feature then turn to the west and northwest. Will keep scattered showers in the forecast until the short wave trough moves through early Monday morning. The best coverage of precipitation will be this afternoon between 19Z/3PM and 00Z/8PM. Challenging to determine the probability of precipitation on Monday once the trough passes.
Precipitable water values have climbed just above an inch and surface dew points were in the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon.
Satellite images were showing a few breaks in the clouds. Locations that get the most heating may have CAPES around 500 J/kg and enough instability maintain isolated thunderstorms today and again Monday afternoon. Will keep patchy MVFR to IFR fog in the forecast overnight with the near surface air mass moist due to the rainfall today.
Ceilings will continue to gradually lower this afternoon and evening, eventually becoming IFR across much of the mountains overnight, then improving back to VFR throughout the morning Monday.
Average confidence for ceiling and wind.
Below average confidence for visibility and the location/timing of any thunderstorms.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Mostly VFR, but ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA could result in periodic restrictions through the period. Some BR is also possible, especially in valley locations through Tuesday.
Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower)
on Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.
Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR conditions behind the front.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States tonight and Monday. Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the region through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic region. A brief break in the wet weather pattern is expected behind the front on Friday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Key message:
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible tonight and Monday
Short wave over the Tennessee Valley will move slowly across east tonight. Low level winds will remain out of the southwest ahead of this feature then turn to the west and northwest. Will keep scattered showers in the forecast until the short wave trough moves through early Monday morning. The best coverage of precipitation will be this afternoon between 19Z/3PM and 00Z/8PM. Challenging to determine the probability of precipitation on Monday once the trough passes.
Precipitable water values have climbed just above an inch and surface dew points were in the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon.
Satellite images were showing a few breaks in the clouds. Locations that get the most heating may have CAPES around 500 J/kg and enough instability maintain isolated thunderstorms today and again Monday afternoon. Will keep patchy fog in the forecast overnight with the near surface air mass moist due to the rainfall today.
Mild dew points and cloud cover will hold minimum temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Expecting more sunshine then today on Monday afternoon and with a downslope component to the surface and low level wind, the foothills and piedmont will warm into the lower 80s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1205 PM EDT SUNDAY...
Key Points:
1. Temperatures will be above normal during this time period.
2. Precipitation chances will gradually increase through the period with Wednesday night seeing the greatest coverage with the arrival of a cold front.
A look at the 2 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows an upper ridge over the region Monday night. This ridge holds fast for Tuesday, but with a shortwave trough moving into the western Great Lakes region by Tuesday evening. For Wednesday, the east coast ridge weakens with its axis shifting east.
The western Great Lakes shortwave trough pivots such that it becomes negatively tilted with its axis reaching into parts of the Tennessee Valley. At the surface for Monday night, low pressure is expected to located over MT, with an associated cold front extending south along the lee of the Rockies. A weak surface high will be over the mid- Atlantic region. Tuesday into Wednesday, the high over the mid- Atlantic region is expected to shift into the western Atlantic while the low move east into central Ontario. By Wednesday evening, its associated cold front will be around the Mississippi River Valley region.
Output from the 2 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures around +16C across the area Tuesday through Thursday. Precipitable water values are expected to gradually increase through the Monday through Wednesday time period. On Monday, values are expected to range from 1.00 to 1.25 inch, and reach around 1.50 inch by Wednesday. This value will touch the low end of the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year climatology.
The above weather scenario points towards increasing chances of showers and storms in advance of an approaching cold front. On Tuesday, this activity will be primarily during the peak heating of the day and across the mountains. For Wednesday, coverage will continue to increase in coverage and time of occurrence.
Late Wednesday night look for very good coverage across the area, especially in the west, as a cold front crosses the area.
Temperatures across the region will average above normal for this time of year.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Points:
1. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Friday through the weekend.
2. Daily chances of at least showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two with coverage best over the mountains.
A look at the 2 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows for Thursday a negatively tilted shortwave trough inching eastward, such that its trough reaches the southern Appalachians. For Friday, not much movement is expected for the trough, however it is expected to deepen, and almost cut off from the northern flow across northern Canada. By Saturday, the trough is expected to expand in scope, with its orientation not changing all that much. However, its geographical range is expected to reach more of that of a longwave trough. A similarly persistent ridge is expected to be located over the Rockies. For Sunday, little change is expected in the overall synoptic pattern across CONUS. At the surface on Thursday, surface low pressure will be near James Bay with its associated cold front crossing our region during the morning. A reinforcing 850mb front will cross Thursday evening/night. Friday through Sunday, the surface low is expected to remain situated near the Ontario/Quebec border, with a ensemble averaging keeping a lee side trough/front over eastern VA south into SC.
Output from the 2 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures cooling a bit from mid-week, down to around +12C to +14C by Friday. Values remain around +12C to +14C through the weekend. Precipitable Water values are expected to gradually trend lower heading into the weekend. Expected values on Thursday to be in the 1.25 to 1.50 range. Friday through Sunday, values around 1.00 inch will be more common.
Look for a cooler period and one that will see daily chances of at least showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, a general pattern of upper level troughiness takes up residency over the area. However, on average, coverage should be greatest over the mountains each day.
While coverage of the precipitation will not be continuous through this entire time period, confidence in the timing of the periods of greater coverage versus lesser coverage of precipitation is low at this time.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Short wave over the Tennessee Valley will move slowly across east tonight. Low level winds will remain out of the southwest ahead of this feature then turn to the west and northwest. Will keep scattered showers in the forecast until the short wave trough moves through early Monday morning. The best coverage of precipitation will be this afternoon between 19Z/3PM and 00Z/8PM. Challenging to determine the probability of precipitation on Monday once the trough passes.
Precipitable water values have climbed just above an inch and surface dew points were in the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon.
Satellite images were showing a few breaks in the clouds. Locations that get the most heating may have CAPES around 500 J/kg and enough instability maintain isolated thunderstorms today and again Monday afternoon. Will keep patchy MVFR to IFR fog in the forecast overnight with the near surface air mass moist due to the rainfall today.
Ceilings will continue to gradually lower this afternoon and evening, eventually becoming IFR across much of the mountains overnight, then improving back to VFR throughout the morning Monday.
Average confidence for ceiling and wind.
Below average confidence for visibility and the location/timing of any thunderstorms.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Mostly VFR, but ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA could result in periodic restrictions through the period. Some BR is also possible, especially in valley locations through Tuesday.
Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower)
on Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.
Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR conditions behind the front.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWB GREENBRIER VALLEY,WV | 17 sm | 15 min | NNE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 70°F | 63°F | 78% | 30.07 |
Blacksburg, VA,
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