Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farnam, NE
July 3, 2024 5:18 AM CDT (10:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 9:20 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM Moonset 6:46 PM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 030908 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 408 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms may contain large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado also possible. Additional strong thunderstorms are possible late this evening and overnight.
- Areas of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding this afternoon into tonight.
- Chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day on Independence Day, mainly north central NE. Dry and sunny on Friday.
- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday and Sunday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Zonal flow aloft will extend across the Central Plains today ahead of an upper trough located from central Montana southward into Utah. This will develop a surface trough of low pressure across the leeside of Colorado and southeast Wyoming, with a warm front extending east across north central Nebraska.
Dewpoints will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s today across the area with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. Isolated thunderstorms will begin to develop ahead of this surface trough and near the warm front soon after 18Z, with an increase in coverage to scattered and numerous by mid to late afternoon. The latest CAMs consensus is for isolated supercells to congeal into a line or clusters of storms by 21Z and spread eastward during the late afternoon into the early evening hours.
The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has a Slight Risk across a large part of western Nebraska which includes all areas west of a Springview through Burwell line. Very large hail 2 inches or greater in diameter is possible near and west of Highway 83, with damaging winds 75 mph or greater possible, especially near and south of Highway 2. Deep layer shear will be sufficient at 35-45kts prior to storm initiation. MUCAPEs will reach near 2000J/kg, and elongated hodographs are expected due to strong speed shear above 700 mb. Discrete supercells will be capable of very large hail and an isolated tornado, mainly near and west of Highway 83. As storms congeal late afternoon through early evening, the transition to a greater damaging wind threat, with some large hail. Most of the CAMS show a line of storms existing the eastern zones by 01Z-02Z. Heavy rainfall is likely with all storms. A MArginal Risk for excessive rainfall extends across Nebraska. Agree with the previous forecasters discussion that, the expected steering winds will be perpendicular to any line segments of storms which do develop. This should ensure storm motion is quick enough to lessen flooding potential. Storm total rainfall of 1-2 inches is forecast north of Highways 2 and 91.
Still, areas across the eastern portions of north central Nebraska which recently have had flooding would be more prone to localized flash flooding, with a lesser concern elsewhere.
Late evening and overnight, the upper trough and cold front will push through, giving a second round of showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms may be strong an contain hail and gusty winds, along with additional rainfall.
On Independence Day, the upper trough will move into the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. This will bring a chance for showers and a few storms, mainly to north central Nebraska.
Southwest Nebraska should remain dry. Dry conditions all areas during the evening and overnight.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Sunny Friday with below normal highs from 75 to 85 with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday into Sunday with northwest flow aloft and disturbances crossing the region. Mid 80s to low 90s Saturday cool to the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. Highs in the 80s return Monday with 80s to low 90s by Tuesday. Dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Winds will generally be light and variable overnight then become gusty out of the south by late morning with sustained winds around 10kts and gust of 15 to 20 kts. Thunderstorm chances increase heading into the afternoon with thunderstorms possibly developing by early afternoon across northern Nebraska, then moving south into the Sandhills and southwest and central Nebraska by late afternoon and evening. Could see gusty, erratic, as the thunderstorms move through, along with chances for hail and potential visibility impacts with heavy rainfall.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 408 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms may contain large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado also possible. Additional strong thunderstorms are possible late this evening and overnight.
- Areas of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding this afternoon into tonight.
- Chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day on Independence Day, mainly north central NE. Dry and sunny on Friday.
- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday and Sunday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Zonal flow aloft will extend across the Central Plains today ahead of an upper trough located from central Montana southward into Utah. This will develop a surface trough of low pressure across the leeside of Colorado and southeast Wyoming, with a warm front extending east across north central Nebraska.
Dewpoints will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s today across the area with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. Isolated thunderstorms will begin to develop ahead of this surface trough and near the warm front soon after 18Z, with an increase in coverage to scattered and numerous by mid to late afternoon. The latest CAMs consensus is for isolated supercells to congeal into a line or clusters of storms by 21Z and spread eastward during the late afternoon into the early evening hours.
The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has a Slight Risk across a large part of western Nebraska which includes all areas west of a Springview through Burwell line. Very large hail 2 inches or greater in diameter is possible near and west of Highway 83, with damaging winds 75 mph or greater possible, especially near and south of Highway 2. Deep layer shear will be sufficient at 35-45kts prior to storm initiation. MUCAPEs will reach near 2000J/kg, and elongated hodographs are expected due to strong speed shear above 700 mb. Discrete supercells will be capable of very large hail and an isolated tornado, mainly near and west of Highway 83. As storms congeal late afternoon through early evening, the transition to a greater damaging wind threat, with some large hail. Most of the CAMS show a line of storms existing the eastern zones by 01Z-02Z. Heavy rainfall is likely with all storms. A MArginal Risk for excessive rainfall extends across Nebraska. Agree with the previous forecasters discussion that, the expected steering winds will be perpendicular to any line segments of storms which do develop. This should ensure storm motion is quick enough to lessen flooding potential. Storm total rainfall of 1-2 inches is forecast north of Highways 2 and 91.
Still, areas across the eastern portions of north central Nebraska which recently have had flooding would be more prone to localized flash flooding, with a lesser concern elsewhere.
Late evening and overnight, the upper trough and cold front will push through, giving a second round of showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms may be strong an contain hail and gusty winds, along with additional rainfall.
On Independence Day, the upper trough will move into the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. This will bring a chance for showers and a few storms, mainly to north central Nebraska.
Southwest Nebraska should remain dry. Dry conditions all areas during the evening and overnight.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Sunny Friday with below normal highs from 75 to 85 with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday into Sunday with northwest flow aloft and disturbances crossing the region. Mid 80s to low 90s Saturday cool to the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. Highs in the 80s return Monday with 80s to low 90s by Tuesday. Dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Winds will generally be light and variable overnight then become gusty out of the south by late morning with sustained winds around 10kts and gust of 15 to 20 kts. Thunderstorm chances increase heading into the afternoon with thunderstorms possibly developing by early afternoon across northern Nebraska, then moving south into the Sandhills and southwest and central Nebraska by late afternoon and evening. Could see gusty, erratic, as the thunderstorms move through, along with chances for hail and potential visibility impacts with heavy rainfall.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KLXN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLXN
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLXN
Wind History graph: LXN
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North Platte, NE,
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