Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 2:44 AM   Moonset 6:54 PM

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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 352 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Tonight - Variable winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest overnight. Partly cloudy this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Variable winds around 5 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.Thursday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 54 degrees and at michigan city is 66 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 031825 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 225 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Along and south of US 24 today, there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few strong to severe storms between now and 8 PM EDT. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain are the main threats.

- Additional chances for showers/thunderstorms persist through Friday.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon/evening on the 4th of July and again during the day on Friday. Warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s.

- Dry conditions and near normal temperatures for the weekend.
Near normal temperatures look to stick around for much of next week (highs mid 80s, lows mid 60s) with sporadic, low chances for rain/storms. The best chances for rain/storms will be on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Warm and humid conditions have returned as a warm front lifted north through the area overnight. A weak cold front is currently entering our area, with showers/storms possibly developing out ahead of it this afternoon and early evening. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) along and south of US 24. A few storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain as the primary threats. Storm coverage should be isolated to scattered at best. I would not be surprised if SPC chooses to pull the Marginal Risk entirely from our area as there is very low confidence in storms reaching severe criteria. Model guidance continues to trend with less instability (500-1000 MLCAPE) this afternoon, and low/mid level lapse rates are sub- par amidst only 20 to 30 knots of 0-6 km shear to work with. If the RAP is correct, there also could be an EML to work with this afternoon that caps any storm development.

There are additional chances for rain/storms for the Fourth of July and again Friday. As a surface low lifts northeast across Missouri Thursday evening, the attendant warm front will lift north through our area. This could result in some rain/storm chances for Thursday evening, although I've kept the highest chances (30-40%) confined to along and south of US 30 for now. These PoPs will likely need adjusting in subsequent forecast updates as we get more certainty as to how far north the warm front gets. Should the boundary stall across our area, this would lead to lingering showers/clouds overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Friday's rain/storm chances are conditional to what happens Thursday; should any clearing occur Friday morning, there would be chances for rain/storms to redevelop again late morning through the afternoon on Friday along a cold front. I would not be surprised if SPC adds us into a Marginal Risk on Friday given the favorable parameters for severe weather, especially on the NAM and NAMNST. Soundings midday Friday from the NAMNST depict an unstable environment with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 40 kts of shear, and moderately steep low and mid level lapse rates.

For the weekend, dry conditions, comfortable humidity, and cooler temperatures return! Saturday will be the cooler day of the weekend with highs in the mid 70s. Next week, the latest CPC outlook has near normal temperatures favored (which would mean highs in the low 80s, lows in the mid 60s), which is somewhat unusual for mid July. There has been a pretty consistent signal in model guidance the past few days that next week will be near normal for temperatures with sporadic, low chances for rain/storms.
There are no consistent signals for high heat to return until possibly 10 to 14 days from now.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A weak surface cool front will continue to make its way across northeast Indiana this evening. Locations in vicinity of this front have experienced MVFR cigs around 2k feet for much of the afternoon, and expecting continued improvements in these cigs with peak diurnal mixing. A few showers appear to be developing along this frontal boundary across far NW Indiana, but would expect focus to remain south of KSBN. A more concentrated area of scattered shower/isolated storm coverage extends from KIND to KMIE to KAOH in pre-frontal zone. This area is along a better instability gradient and may continue to be a focal point for showers and storms into this evening. KFWA may be situated between these two preferred areas of forcing, but some scattered showers are possible at KFWA from 20Z-00Z as weak cold front drops into northeast Indiana. Instability will be more limited at KFWA in comparison to east central Indiana, and confidence in thunder coverage is low. Low confidence also persists in how long isolated shower potential will continue into this evening, but potential should wane after 00Z. Some patchy fog and stratus may develop tonight, but greater potential appears to be south of KFWA.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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