Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Muskegon Heights, MI
July 3, 2024 4:33 PM EDT (20:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:08 AM Sunset 9:30 PM Moonrise 2:35 AM Moonset 6:58 PM |
LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 405 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Through early evening - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering west 5 to 10 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Independence day - Northwest winds around 5 knots backing west, then veering northwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering east after midnight. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots veering southwest. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night - West winds around 20 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 031854 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and Partly Cloudy Independence Day
- Showers and Storms Likely Friday
- Unsettled Pattern Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
- Warm and Partly Cloudy Independence Day
Not much change to this part of the forecast. Dry weather is expected with rain chances creeping into far southwest Lower Michigan beginning well after dark on July 4, so little to no disruptions to nighttime fireworks are expected at this time.
Dewpoints should be in the lower 60s during the day, resulting in apparent temperature/heat index readings in the mid 80s, which is near or slightly below expected highs in the upper 80s for areas away from the lake.
- Showers and Storms Likely Friday
The primary timeframe to watch for impacts will be late Friday morning into the afternoon. Synoptically, a positively tilted trough approaches the area causing a surface low to deepen as it passes to our northwest. The dynamics are decent with a 50 knot westerly mid- level jet and 30 knot southwesterly low-level jet setting up across lower Michigan.
Ample moisture will be in place and dewpoints climb near 70 with PWAT values exceeding 1.5 inches. The key to severe potential will be the extent of morning convection ahead of the front. Current trends support an earlier frontal passage (late morning into early afternoon) supporting less instability, as well as more showers and storms ahead of the front. These outcomes would limit potential for strong storms even with decent deep layer shear. However, if we can get some instability to build (which won't be difficult given the high dewpoints), ample moisture and the strong kinematics mean some gusty winds from water loaded downdrafts cannot be ruled out. This will need to be monitored closely over the next day or two to see if trends more towards a severe weather risk. Regardless of any severe weather potential, showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely as the front moves through so will keep the high PoPs in place for Friday.
- Unsettled Pattern Next Week
The shortwave and associated surface low take their time to exit west Michigan so rain showers continue into Saturday. A brief break comes in late Saturday into early Sunday as high pressure pushes through the state.
The overall pattern remains quite unsettled Sunday into mid next week. A longwave trough sets up across the eastern half of the CONUS while strong ridging sets up across the western half. The general expectation in these kinds of patterns is for shortwaves to rotate through the larger scale flow pattern; bringing occasional chances for showers and storms. However, at this range, exact timing of any precipitation is uncertain as it depends on how the upper-low evolves in terms of its strength and position. Even though several chances of rain are possible, dry weather will be predominant much of the time. The other good news is that while temps will be slightly cooler, significant drops in temperature are not expected due to the low amount of change in the predominant airmass temperature.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 113 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Primarily VFR expected after 18z as cloud bases rise, though isolated MVFR pockets cannot be ruled out through 21z. Ceilings then become indefinite as high pressure overnight causes only SCT cirrus. There are signals for for at MKG early Thursday as better moisture arrives in combination with flow off the lake but confidence is to low to add restrictions so went with VCFG to highlight the best window. BKN clouds above 10kft arrive along I94 mid morning Thursday however any showers remain south of the terminals. Westerly winds around 10 knots expected today calming tonight to at or below 5 knots and remaining there through the rest of the TAF window.
MARINE
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Main concern in the very short term is persistent and localized shallow marine fog being noted by some of our webcams in the Holland to South Haven vicinity. Expectation is that this will scour out later today based on visible satellite trends. Fog could return again tonight, but if it does, it's not expected to be widespread enough to warrant headlines. The immediate lakeshore could see some rapid changes though.
Otherwise, winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory criteria through the period.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and Partly Cloudy Independence Day
- Showers and Storms Likely Friday
- Unsettled Pattern Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
- Warm and Partly Cloudy Independence Day
Not much change to this part of the forecast. Dry weather is expected with rain chances creeping into far southwest Lower Michigan beginning well after dark on July 4, so little to no disruptions to nighttime fireworks are expected at this time.
Dewpoints should be in the lower 60s during the day, resulting in apparent temperature/heat index readings in the mid 80s, which is near or slightly below expected highs in the upper 80s for areas away from the lake.
- Showers and Storms Likely Friday
The primary timeframe to watch for impacts will be late Friday morning into the afternoon. Synoptically, a positively tilted trough approaches the area causing a surface low to deepen as it passes to our northwest. The dynamics are decent with a 50 knot westerly mid- level jet and 30 knot southwesterly low-level jet setting up across lower Michigan.
Ample moisture will be in place and dewpoints climb near 70 with PWAT values exceeding 1.5 inches. The key to severe potential will be the extent of morning convection ahead of the front. Current trends support an earlier frontal passage (late morning into early afternoon) supporting less instability, as well as more showers and storms ahead of the front. These outcomes would limit potential for strong storms even with decent deep layer shear. However, if we can get some instability to build (which won't be difficult given the high dewpoints), ample moisture and the strong kinematics mean some gusty winds from water loaded downdrafts cannot be ruled out. This will need to be monitored closely over the next day or two to see if trends more towards a severe weather risk. Regardless of any severe weather potential, showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely as the front moves through so will keep the high PoPs in place for Friday.
- Unsettled Pattern Next Week
The shortwave and associated surface low take their time to exit west Michigan so rain showers continue into Saturday. A brief break comes in late Saturday into early Sunday as high pressure pushes through the state.
The overall pattern remains quite unsettled Sunday into mid next week. A longwave trough sets up across the eastern half of the CONUS while strong ridging sets up across the western half. The general expectation in these kinds of patterns is for shortwaves to rotate through the larger scale flow pattern; bringing occasional chances for showers and storms. However, at this range, exact timing of any precipitation is uncertain as it depends on how the upper-low evolves in terms of its strength and position. Even though several chances of rain are possible, dry weather will be predominant much of the time. The other good news is that while temps will be slightly cooler, significant drops in temperature are not expected due to the low amount of change in the predominant airmass temperature.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 113 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Primarily VFR expected after 18z as cloud bases rise, though isolated MVFR pockets cannot be ruled out through 21z. Ceilings then become indefinite as high pressure overnight causes only SCT cirrus. There are signals for for at MKG early Thursday as better moisture arrives in combination with flow off the lake but confidence is to low to add restrictions so went with VCFG to highlight the best window. BKN clouds above 10kft arrive along I94 mid morning Thursday however any showers remain south of the terminals. Westerly winds around 10 knots expected today calming tonight to at or below 5 knots and remaining there through the rest of the TAF window.
MARINE
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Main concern in the very short term is persistent and localized shallow marine fog being noted by some of our webcams in the Holland to South Haven vicinity. Expectation is that this will scour out later today based on visible satellite trends. Fog could return again tonight, but if it does, it's not expected to be widespread enough to warrant headlines. The immediate lakeshore could see some rapid changes though.
Otherwise, winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory criteria through the period.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 7 mi | 24 min | S 6G | 65°F | 29.91 | 65°F | ||
| 45161 | 9 mi | 24 min | 2 ft | |||||
| 45029 | 23 mi | 24 min | S 7.8G | 66°F | 65°F | 1 ft | 29.91 | 66°F |
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 32 mi | 46 min | S 8.9G | 61°F | 68°F | 29.91 | 61°F |
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMKG
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMKG
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMKG
Wind History graph: MKG
(wind in knots)
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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