Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 12:31 PM   Moonset 12:25 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 647 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late this evening, then becoming sw after midnight, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se with some gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Isolated showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Isolated showers and tstms in the evening. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 13 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 13 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Mon night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tue night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Wed - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Wed night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 647 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - An area of low pressure moves northeast well off the carolina coast today. A cold front then pushes through Saturday morning. High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 141842 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 242 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure moves northeast well off the Carolina Coast today. A cold front then pushes through Saturday morning. High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 215 PM Friday...

- Quiet weather expected through tonight

Low pressure will continue to pull away from the coast this afternoon, with the risk of showers ending along the Outer Banks (mainly the Cape Hatteras area). In the wake of the low, the low- level flow will quickly become southerly ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the NW. Despite the dry boundary layer this afternoon (some areas of ENC have seen dewpoints drop into the 50s), I expect temps to end up milder than last night due to the moistening southerly flow. Additionally, a modest increase in mid- level moisture should support partly to mostly cloudy skies, which should also help to keep temps from falling as low as last night. With the increasing moisture, some guidance is hinting at the potential for a few overnight showers. I'm not seeing much in the way of forcing, and moisture return looks modest, so for now I opted to continue with a dry forecast through tonight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 215 PM Friday...

- Early day cold front passage

- Isolated thunderstorms possible along the Crystal Coast Saturday afternoon (10-20% chance)

A mid-level shortwave will shift offshore during the day Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing south through ENC. Short-term guidance has remained fairly consistent with the timing of the front, pushing it off the Crystal Coast by mid- morning. Despite the northerly flow behind the front, it appears that the more notable boundary layer drying will be delayed by a few hours. Heating of the residually-moist boundary layer may support several hours of modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1500 j/kg). Forcing will be waning, but perhaps enough forcing can develop along the seabreeze to support a few thunderstorms popping up around Onslow, Jones, Craven, and Carteret Counties before the drier air arrives. Given the lack of appreciable forcing, the risk of deep, sustained convection appears low, as does the risk of severe weather. It still appears to warrant some low-end pops, though, so no real change to the forecast there. Low-level thicknesses don't change much behind the front, and I expect temperatures Saturday to be fairly close to what we're seeing this afternoon (80s along the coast, 90s inland).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 340 AM Friday...

Key Points:

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Behind the cold front, ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s.
Unsure how this boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up, but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but fortunately winds should remain light during this period with the high. 0Z model guidance does suggest the potential of a weak coastal trof that may approach our area by mid to late week.
Too far out to do more than chance pops at this time, which also match climo for this time of year.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Saturday/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

- VFR conditions expected through Saturday morning

A cold front is forecast to move through Eastern NC Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, the winds will flip from NE/E to S/SW through tonight. This will allow weak moisture return to occur, along with a period of SCT/BKN mid-level clouds. The risk of SHRA appears low through tonight (<10% chance). A few SHRA or TSRA may develop on Saturday, but the greatest chance looks to be focused just beyond the current TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected through the long term.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

- Elevated winds and seas continue into Saturday

- Low end thunderstorm risk near the Crystal Coast Saturday

Based on satellite imagery and buoy obs, a 1010mb surface low is located about 140 miles southeast of Cape Lookout at this time. Despite the nearby proximity of the low, buoy obs show seas are mostly in the 2-4 ft range across the coastal waters, and winds are in the 10-20kt range. Based on these observations, and given that the low is pulling away from the area, we still do not expect to see widespread, or long-lasting, SCA conditions today, and we'll continue with no headlines.

In the wake of the low, winds will quickly flip around to a southerly direction ahead of a cold front that will be approaching the waters from the NW late tonight. A period of 10-15kt southwesterly winds is expected ahead of the front, followed by a period of 10-20kt northeasterly winds behind the front as it moves through during the day Saturday. Both ahead of, and behind, the front, seas of 2-4 ft are expected. Over the far outer edges of the central waters (ie. 15-20nm from shore), a brief period of seas of 4- 5 ft will be possible through this evening, especially with the northeast wind opposing the Gulf Stream. At this time, no headlines are planned through Saturday.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Next week pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205.
MARINE...None.

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Spooner Creek
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Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:05 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:42 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:44 PM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

Fort Macon
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:02 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:16 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:57 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Macon, USCG Station, North Carolina, Tide feet

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