Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 3:18 AM   Moonset 6:48 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 316 Am Edt Thu Jul 4 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 9 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 3 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri night - S winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sat - S winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 316 Am Edt Thu Jul 4 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will remain centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KMHX 040646 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 246 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will push offshore tonight and then remain centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 130 AM Thursday...
THIS MORNING: High pressure continues slowly drifting offshore, dominating the weather conditions through the morning. Winds are generally calm inland and some high cloud cover streaming in from the north/northeast. Coverage is expected to increase along and west of hwy 17 through the early morning hours before decreasing again mid-morning. The cloud cover, paired with a dry atmospheric column will inhibit any impactful fog formation this morning. However, with the winds being calm patchy, shallow non-impactful fog is possible from 4am-8am as Tds trend higher with the return flow from the high. Lows in the mid- upper 60s inland, low 70s for beaches.

TODAY: Warm day on tap with highs in the low-mid 90s inland, 80s for beaches. Dry forecast and light south winds with the high pressure centered to our east. This southerly flow will also usher in more moisture, with Heat Indices near 100 degrees inland. Diurnal cumulus field will develop once again in the late morning to early afternoon and overspread the entire CWA until the seabreeze can develop and push the cloud field further inland. An area of weak isentropic lift along a pre frontal trough will be to our west by 6PM Thursday.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 145 AM Thursday...Prefrontal trough moves through the region overnight. Instability will be meager at best when the greatest forcing moves through, and despite PWATs over 2", it is likely any showers and thunderstorms moving in from our west dissipate entirely before reaching the western portions of the CWA For this reason, I decided to keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast, outside of western Martin County and NW Pitt County where there is a small chance of enough instability for showers and storms to persist shortly after sunset as the trough moves through. Unfortunately this trough will not do much to alleviate the drought conditions occuring in the coastal plain.
Lows are a bit higher, in the low-mid 70s inland and mid 70s for beaches.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 245 AM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this weekend - Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven, return this weekend into next week

Our most impactful weather likely occurs Friday into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead, while at the surface, high pressure will remain anchored offshore allowing SSW flow and deeper moisture to return to the area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This will likely lead to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg for many areas, esp Fri and Sat.

A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this weekend into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.
At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat.



AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

- VFR likely for most areas over the next 24 hrs (>80% chance)

- BR and sub-VFR conditions possible for OAJ overnight (40% chance)

High pressure will shift offshore overnight, with a light southeasterly flow allowing some shallow moisture advection to occur off the Atlantic. Light winds and some shallow moistening may allow a few hours of sub-VFR conditions in BR to develop, although high clouds streaming in from the north could inhibit BR. Guidance isn't depicting any fog potential from OAJ, but considering the drop to IFR observed Wednesday morning and Tds higher today in the morning compared to yesterday, put a tempo MVFR group for OAJ between 9-12Z. Any fog that does develop will likely be shallow in nature. Light south-southeasterly flow will continue through the day Thursday, with a bump up in winds with the advancing seabreeze in the afternoon. Once again, the risk of SHRA or TSRA looks low along the seabreeze (<10% chance). Of note, however, TSRA approaching from the west along a pre-frontal trough may make a run at the coastal plain of Eastern NC (ISO, PGV). Current expectation is for the showers and Tstorms to dissipate before reaching TAF terminals, so kept mentions of rain or thunder out of the TAFs with this update.
There will be an increase in cloud cover however Thursday night along the trough, although current expectation is for ceilings to be VFR.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend and early next week, which could bring periods of sub-VFR.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...Pleasant boating conditions continue over area waters as high pressure, centered off the coast, extends southward over the Carolinas. Ongoing 5 to 15 kt S/SE'rly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas will continue to persist over our waters through Thursday. Thursday night winds veer to become SW'rly, but remain 5-15kts.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Typical summertime pattern expected through the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Fri into Sat, strongest during the late afternoon and evening. There is potential for a brief period of 25 kt gusts late Fri afternoon and Fri night, which could bring SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15 kt Sun and Mon. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night into Sat.
May continue to see longer period swells from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on wave heights.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:27 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:49 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:44 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,