Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 3:18 AM   Moonset 6:48 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1020 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Overnight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 9 seconds and se 1 ft at 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sat night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1020 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will push offshore tonight and then remain centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KMHX 032340 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 740 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will push offshore tonight and then remain centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

- Hazardous weather unlikely overnight

High pressure remains anchored across the Mid-Atlantic at this time, with a wavy frontal boundary noted well to the south from Georgia east into the SW Atlantic. Beneath the high, PWATs have fallen below 1.50", which puts the moisture content of the airmass in the 25th percentile for this time of year. The seabreeze has made it about as far inland as Kinston and Greenville, but with the very dry airmass in place, no shower or thunderstorm activity is ongoing at this time. With the evening update, changes to the forecast were minimal.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to shift offshore overnight allowing winds to remain light and skies to become mostly clear. Weak lee troughing develops further inland as a weak cold front shifts across the Ohio River Valley, and winds will veer to a southerly direction overnight allowing Tds to slowly rise. Still, given the light winds inland and mostly clear skies, another round of effective radiational cooling will result in one final evening of relatively mild lows in the mid to upper 60s. Along the immediate coast, temperatures hover around 70.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 330 PM Wed... High pressure becomes centered offshore on Thursday allowing for south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph to persist across ENC. With the southerly winds in place, dewpoints will continue to creep up as weak moisture return continues as well. Diurnal cumulus field will develop once again in the late morning to early afternoon and overspread the entire CWA until the seabreeze can develop and push the cloud field further inland. Otherwise with increasing low level thicknesses temps will be slightly warmer on Thurs getting into the low to mid 90s inland and into the mid 80s along the OBX.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 245 AM Wed...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this weekend

Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S'wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore through the end of the week allowing SSW flow and deeper moisture to return to the area.

Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This could lead to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops Fri into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00z Friday/...
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

- VFR likely for most areas over the next 24 hrs (>80% chance)

- BR and sub-VFR conditions possible for OAJ overnight (40-60% chance)

High pressure will shift offshore overnight, with a light southeasterly flow allowing some shallow moisture advection to occur off the Atlantic. Clear skies plus light winds and some shallow moistening may allow a few hours of sub-VFR conditions in BR to develop. Guidance gives the highest chance at OAJ, and for this reason, I've introduced a period of MVFR conditions there. At this time, the risk of a deeper, more impactful fog, appears low (<10% chance). On Thursday, the light southeasterly flow will continue, with a bump up in winds with the advancing seabreeze in the afternoon. Once again, the risk of SHRA or TSRA looks low along the seabreeze (<10% chance). Of note, however, TSRA approaching from the west may make a run at the coastal plain of Eastern NC (ISO, PGV). If this were to occur, it's expected that they would arrive in a weakening fashion, and just beyond the current TAF cycle. For now, then, I'll keep with a VFR TAF for Thursday.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Wed... Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 345 PM Wed... No significant changes to the forecast as pleasant boating conditions continue over area waters as high pressure, centered off the coast, extends southward over the Carolinas. Ongoing 5 to 15 kt SE'rly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas will continue to persist over our waters through tonight with winds and seas changing little through Thursday.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Mostly benign boating conditions are forecast for the period. Light and variable winds to start off Thu, becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Typical summertime pattern late week into the weekend, with SSW winds 10-20 kt, strongest during the late afternoon and evening. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night. May continue to see longer period swells from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on wave heights.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:49 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:22 AM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:55 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:52 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,