Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 12:51 PM   Moonset 12:45 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 141758 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 158 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A dry and weak cold front will track across the forecast area overnight before a hot upper ridge builds into the region from the west this weekend. The upper ridge will linger over the Southeast through much of next week keeping the heat around. Isolated diurnal ridgetop showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, with better chances across the mountains on Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Current GOES-16 loop indicates deepening updrafts across the NC mtn ridgetops, but not enuf to produce any precip. The upper vort lobe crossing the area is weaker per the latest RAP compared to the outlook yesterday and soundings show low-end sbCAPE as temps rise abv normal levels conjoined with high sfc dewpts. Still expect some showery development across the mtns this afternoon, but negative large scale forcing assoc with deep subs and meager mlvl LRs will curtail sigfnt tstm development, esp east where a downsloping componenet helps dry out the sfc layer.

A weakly forced cold front will reach the NC mtns by midnight, but not expecting much fanfare outside a increasing the chance for sct showers as mlCIN increases. Expect the front to continue pushing south of the FA Sat as stg hipres ridges in from the north and northeast. This pattern will initiate a llvl e/ly component which may develop upslope showers and couple general tstms across the escarpment upslope regions by the afternoon. Otherwise, Sat looks mostly dry with highs reaching arnd 90 F east of the mtns and mid to upper 80s across the mtn valleys.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

1) Hot Conditions Continue through the Period

2) Diurnal Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Each Day in the Mountains

As of 130 PM EDT Friday: Strong upper ridging will continue building into the Southeast Saturday night, ending up centered over the Carolinas Sunday into Monday night. At the sfc, high pressure will gradually track eastward across the Northeast Saturday night before pushing offshore into the western Atlantic on Sunday. The center of the sfc high will linger in the western Atlantic while gradually nudging eastward Sunday night into Monday night. The southern/southwestern periphery of the sfc high will extend into the Southeast through the period. Winds will gradually turn S/SE'ly on Sunday, and will lingering through Monday, allowing for an influx of Atlantic moisture. Thus, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase through the period. Have PoPs ranging from 25%- 40% across the mountains each afternoon. The severe threat looks to remain low and mainly general thunderstorms are expected each day.
Lows each night will remain around 4-8 degrees above climo. Highs will remain around 3-6 degrees above climo, with temps rebounding into the upper 80s/lower 90s in the mountain valleys and east of the mountains each afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Messages:

1) Hot Conditions Continue through the Period

2) Drier Conditions Return through the Period

As of 130 PM EDT Friday: The hot upper anticyclone will linger over the East Coast through at least Thursday. The GFS and Canadian show the anticyclone gradually breaking down Thursday night into Friday while the ECMWF keeps the anticyclone intact. Regardless of how the anticyclone evolves towards the end of the workweek, hot temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s will continue in the mountain valleys and east of the mountains through the period. The sfc high in the western Atlantic will gradually sink southward through the period, with the southwester/western periphery continuing to extend into the Southeast. This will allow flow to turn more E/ESE across the forecast area. Latest global model guidance continues to generally agree that drier conditions can be expected Tuesday through Friday. Thus, went with dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday area-wide, with PoPs capped to slight chance (15%-24%) across the mountains Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. Lows will remain around 3-5 degrees above climo, with highs remaining around 3-6 degrees above climo through the period.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conds across all TAF sites thru the period. High pressure will continue to work in from the northwest this afternoon and build east thru Sat. This will keep winds aligned generally w/ly to nw/ly this evening with a shift before daybreak to ne/ly to se/ly as ridging commences down the east coast. Precip chances are confined to the mtns but remain too small for a TAF mention. No great fog threat overnight as well, but the mtn valleys have a some chance. Confidence in fog coverage is too low to include a restriction at KAVL, however.

Outlook: Weak sfc high pressure will linger over the area into the weekend, with minimal chances for convection and associated flight restrictions. More moist, SLY flow returns early next week and will likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each day.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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