Sunrise 5:06 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 7:26 PM

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FXUS61 KBTV 030808 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 408 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through today. A frontal boundary will bring increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this evening and overnight but, at this time, the Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...A surface warm front will lift across our area today, and warmer and more humid air will settle over the region. The air near the surface is still quite dry though, so don't expect any showers with this frontal passage.
Winds will increase from the south southwest today, especially during the afternoon. Winds will gust to about 30 mph, especially in the St Lawrence and Champlain valleys. Winds will die down around sunset with loss of daytime heating and any surface based instability. Sustained winds will remain around 10 to 15 mph though. High temperatures today will be about 5 degrees above seasonal normals for early July, topping out in the 80s areawide, warmest in the Champlain valley. During the overnight hours we will have light rain showers spread across the north country associated with a cold frontal passage.
Showers will be showery in nature. Surface front will weaken as it moves eastward across the area with loss of daytime heating.
Lack of strong forcing and instability means not a lot of severe threat, or even thunder beyond just a slight chance. Brief heavy downpours will be possible due to high pwats. Minimum temperatures will continue to be mild with lows ranging through the 60s, some locations in the St Lawrence valley will not go below 70. Drier weather will return on Thursday behind departing cold front, though temperatures will still be quite warm. High temperatures will range through the 80s once again. The forecast is for mainly dry weather for July 4th.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...In the wake of the aforementioned weak cold front passage, brief high pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions expected to end the work week. Little airmass changed is expected with the frontal passage, and late Friday a mainly dry warm front will swing into the region associated with low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes. All in all, while dry conditions will generally prevail through the period, humidity will remain moderately high with dewpoints in the 60s, and 925mb temps around +20-22C continuing to support highs in the mid/upper 80s with a few spot 90s possible.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...We continue to monitor the potential for heavy rain from thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday night as low pressure tracking northeast from the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the forecast area.
The 00Z suite of guidance indicates a faster arrival of the front Friday night into Saturday morning which limits the potential for strong storms, but also shows a slight northward push of 2" PWATs so the threat of heavy rain remains. Overall, ensembles continue to support the best dynamics north of the region and deepest moisture south, so we may end up okay in the middle with more moderate rain and general thunder. Time will tell.

Sunday into Monday drier conditions generally prevail though some lingering showers are possible Sunday as the system lifts north through Quebec. Weak ridging develops once again ahead of another trough digging into the Great Lakes which will renew chances for showers and thunderstorms again going into midweek.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06Z Thursday...Pervasive VFR continues with high clouds edging in west to east overnight. Winds will become gusty out of the south this afternoon. Gusts 20-25kts will likely be common for BTV/PBG/MSS. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through the period until 21Z for MSS when the first showers will be moving east out of Canada. Only other concern will be a brief period of LLWS after 00z.

Outlook...

Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Winds will pick up today behind a surface warm front lifting north through the region and flow becoming southerly behind the boundary. Winds will gust to about 35 kts on the lake, especially this evening.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Louiseville
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Wed -- 02:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.62 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT     0.71 meters High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:31 PM EDT     0.65 meters Low Tide
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Louiseville, Quebec, Tide feet

Sorel
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Wed -- 01:27 AM EDT     0.66 meters High Tide
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.64 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 03:29 PM EDT     0.68 meters High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.65 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet

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