Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 3:10 AM   Moonset 5:32 PM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 436 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - East winds near 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming choppy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday and Saturday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Sunday - Southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 436 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the western north atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes. Hurricane beryl is well south of the florida keys, and this will remain the case, but breezes will briefly freshen through tonight as beryl makes its closest approach to the keys. As beryl approaches the bay of campeche and the high shifts in the north atlantic, gentle breezes will veer to the southeast over the weekend.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of july 3 - .
50 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 34 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 30 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 6 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 7 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 5 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 2 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 030648 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 248 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Stout mid-level ridging (~594 dam) will continue to expand across the southeastern United States through the short term as surface highs build inland from the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. Easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail during this period, with near-climo moisture values in place on Wednesday (PWAT values between 1.7-1.9 inches). This regime will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over interior and southwestern FL during the late afternoon hours as the sea breezes develop and meet inland.

Drier mid-level air could filter in over the area on Thursday along Hurricane Beryl's northern flank as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula. This dry air intrusion could help inhibit widespread convective development across the region, with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage (PoPs ~50-60%) over the interior and southwest FL during the afternoon and evening.

Temperatures each day will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate East Coast to the low 90s across interior and southwest FL. The corresponding heat indices could climb into the 105-110 degree F range across southern-most portions of the peninsula during peak daytime heating hours; as a result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Miami-Dade, Broward, mainland Monroe and Collier counties starting at 10AM today through 8pm Thursday. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, providing little relief from the heat, with lows in the mid 70s over the interior and in the low 80s along the immediate coastlines.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The aforementioned ridging will hold over the area through Friday-Saturday, flattening out over the weekend as a mid-level trough develops over the Great Lakes region. This will support generally with easterly to southeasterly winds prevailing through the start of the weekend, becoming more southerly as we start the new week.

Chances for shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon will be driven by the sea breezes, with convection initiating over the local waters and the East Coast late each morning, shifting towards the interior and West Coast in the afternoon and early evening. Models suggest a surge of moisture could approach the region over the weekend, thus enhancing the chances for heavy rainfall and higher coverage on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain warm, with high temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most areas.
Heat index values may range between 105 and 110 during the late morning and afternoon hours. However, there is low confidence regarding persistence and thus continuous monitoring will need to determine the potential need for any heat-related products.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible near the east coast terminals through the early afternoon, with the threat of storms then shifting towards KAPF later this afternoon.
Winds will generally be easterly around 10 to 15kts during the day, except at KAPF where a shift to the W-NW is anticipated this afternoon (outside of any convective outflows).

MARINE
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters through the end of the week as ridging prevails. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop each afternoon, resulting in locally higher winds and seas.

BEACHES
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the east coast beaches through Thursday as moderate easterly (onshore) flow prevails.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 91 80 91 80 / 30 20 30 10 West Kendall 91 79 92 78 / 30 20 30 10 Opa-Locka 92 80 92 80 / 30 20 30 10 Homestead 90 80 90 80 / 30 30 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 80 / 30 20 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 81 90 81 / 30 20 30 10 Pembroke Pines 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 91 80 91 78 / 30 20 30 10 Boca Raton 91 80 91 79 / 30 20 30 10 Naples 93 78 94 79 / 60 50 60 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ069>075-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:37 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:53 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:37 PM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT     1.50 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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