Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024

The long term period will start off with a day of transition, as deep mid-level troughing pushing across the central and eastern US will send a frontal boundary through the FL Peninsula. The most likely timing for the front to start moving across South FL is late afternoon to evening on Wednesday, so most of the day will be dry and warm in the pre-frontal southerly wind regime. There will be enough moisture and forcing to support scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two with the frontal passage, but most areas will see less than one-quarter inch of rain. Breezy northerly winds along with a dry and cool airmass will move in behind the front for the end of the work week into the weekend.

While morning lows on Thursday (and maybe Friday) will be cooler than usual, and especially across the western half of South Florida where the Lake won`t affect the CAA regime, lows are not expected to fall into the tail (or extremes cold) end of the local model or observed climatology. The coldest morning will be Thursday, with lows somewhere in the low 40s across Hendry and Glades counties, warming the further south and east you go, up to near 60 along the extreme southeast coast of Florida. Thereafter, flow becomes more easterly and loses the colder continental influence and advects in more moisture thus moderating temperatures.

Wind speed forecasts from the GEFS/GEPS/ECENS systems are generally in the top 1% of climatology for this time of year following the frontal passage. So, for late Wednesday, and then Thursday-Friday, the potential exists for sustained winds 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph and potentially even higher along the immediate east coast.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024

VFR through the period with easterly to southeasterly wind flow.

MARINE
Issued at 229 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024

Generally fair marine conditions early this week with east- southeast flow around 10-15 knots or less across the local waters.
Seas will range from 1 to 3 feet across the Atlantic waters, and 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters. Conditions will deteriorate mid to late week with another frontal passage.

BEACHES
Issued at 229 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024

The high risk for rip currents continue along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida with prevailing onshore flow. The rip current risk will remain elevated through at least the middle of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 80 70 81 72 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 80 65 82 68 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 80 68 82 70 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 80 68 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 70 80 72 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 79 70 81 72 / 10 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 82 68 84 71 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 80 68 82 70 / 10 0 0 10 Boca Raton 80 70 82 71 / 10 0 0 10 Naples 80 63 81 67 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.