Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

An amplifying mid level longwave trough will continue to dig down from the Great Lakes region into the Gulf coast states this afternoon and this trough will progress towards the Eastern Seaboard and Florida Peninsula tonight into Monday. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep through Northern and Central Florida tonight before eventually passing through South Florida on Monday morning.

Out ahead of this front, a rather light synoptic south to southwesterly wind regime will remain in place this afternoon and tonight across most of the region. With the sea breezes developing and pushing inland combined with ample lower level moisture advection taking place, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the interior and move towards the east coast metro areas this afternoon and this evening. While the latest ACARS data shows CAPE values between 1200-1300 J/kg at 17Z, these values will increase as the atmosphere continues to destabilize with plenty of daytime heating especially across the interior and east coast. The latest forecast model soundings show CAPE values ranging between 3000-3500 J/kg over the eastern half of South Florida later this afternoon. Because of this, one or two strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out containing gusty winds where boundary interactions take place along the east coast.
Factors that are working against strong thunderstorm development are rather poor lower to mid level lapse rates combined with plenty of mid to upper level dry air in place.

High temperatures this afternoon will once again approach record values as they rise into the upper 80s to around 90 across the interior and east coast due to the general south to southwesterly wind flow in place. Behind the front, northwesterly winds will rapidly increase on Monday afternoon across the region as a much drier and cooler air mass pushes into the area. High temperatures on Monday will generally range from the lower 70s west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 80s along and south of Alligator Alley.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

For Tuesday morning, models depict it be the coldest period of the incoming cold weather event with morning lows dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s around the Lake region, and mid-upper 40s elsewhere. Locations right along the coast may remain close to 50.
For the Tuesday afternoon highs, models continue on a modest cooling trend with low-mid 60s around the Lake region/interior areas, and upper 60s elsewhere.

Most concerning impact will be potential for wind chills to drop into the low-mid 30s over the northern half of SoFlo, and low 40s elsewhere. These values will continue to be adjusted as new guidance becomes available, so interests affected by cold temperatures should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in Miami.

Winds will likely peak in intensity, around 15 mph, during the late morning hours Tuesday then beginning to subside in the afternoon hours. The air mass gradually moderates from Wednesday and through the end of the work week as the west Atlantic ridge returns over the area. Decreasing winds veer to a more easterly flow while warming up the air mass. Afternoon highs climb back into the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday and Saturday.

POPs remain basically in single digits every day of the forecast period with benign weather prevailing.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Generally VFR prevails for the 00Z TAF period. Winds become light tonight with potential for a low ceiling cloud deck to form across the area. This is low in confidence and thus have just kept a BKN group in overnight. KAPF has a chance to see VIS reduced due to fog. For tomorrow, gusty NW winds arrive by early afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Winds will shift more south-southwesterly today but remain in the 5-10kt range ahead of an approaching front. Hazardous marine conditions are expected to quickly develop in the wake of the frontal passage starting Monday morning and continuing through the middle of the work week. Most of South Florida's coastal waters will be affected by the stronger winds.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all coastal waters of South Florida including lake Okeechobee. Latest model estimates show possible wave heights in the 10 to 14 feet range in the Atlantic waters on Tuesday, along with wind speeds in the 25-30 kt range with higher gusts.

BEACHES
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today at all beaches of Palm Beach county.

Rip current risk is expected to become high at all Atlantic beaches on Tuesday in the wake of a frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 73 83 49 68 / 10 20 0 0 West Kendall 71 83 47 67 / 10 20 0 0 Opa-Locka 73 83 49 69 / 20 20 0 0 Homestead 72 83 49 68 / 10 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 82 47 68 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 82 47 68 / 20 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 73 85 49 70 / 20 20 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 80 46 67 / 20 10 0 0 Boca Raton 72 82 47 69 / 20 10 0 0 Naples 71 77 45 64 / 20 20 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.