Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 545 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

A mid/upper-level trough remains positioned across the eastern CONUS, with its attendant surface boundary draped southward along the U.S. East Coast and into the northern Gulf. Meanwhile, deep- layer ridging prevails across South Florida, with water vapor satellite imagery depicting a dry airmass overspreading the region.
Recent MFL and ACARS soundings indicate PWAT values near seasonal averages, between 1.2-1.3 inches, with the majority of the available moisture confined below 850 mb. This, combined with weak surface flow and limited large-scale forcing, will maintain minimal rain chances (<10% PoPs) across the region heading into the weekend.

The mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward into the western Atlantic on Saturday, while the associated surface boundary weakens as it approaches South Florida. Model guidance remains in good agreement bringing only a modest increase in moisture and rain chances to the region ahead of this frontal passage. Mostly dry conditions are expected area-wide, with isolated to widely scattered showers possible across Southeast Florida late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to lower 70s along the coasts to the upper 60s across interior locations. Afternoon highs on Saturday will generally reach the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

The dry weather pattern remains in guidance on Sunday as high pressure briefly descends upon the area in the wake of a relatively dry FROPA. Some lingering moisture may be enough for a few coastal showers to develop in the afternoon hours, but so far NBM keeps max POPs around 10-15% right along the east coast.

For early next week, high pressure will have broad control of the region, keeping low POPs in place and winds veering from N/NW to a more NE flow by Tuesday. Meanwhile, global models show a short wave trough feature developing over the SE CONUS, and gradually pushing into northern Florida around the late Tuesday-early Wednesday timeframe. The timing of this feature will continue to be adjusted.
In the mean time, will keep following NBM's scenario, having this feature bringing a modest air mass modification for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Low-lvl moisture intrusion from the Atlantic may be enough to push POPs into the 20-30% range. This scenario will also be adjusted as new guidance becomes available.

The latest trend in guidance is also to bring a more pronounced temperature gradient as overall northerly flow develops in the wake of the FROPA. Afternoon highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s by early next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
L/V winds overnight will increase out of the NNW late morning at east coast sites, before shifting out of the NNE at 5-10 kt after 17Z as a sea-breeze develops. At KAPF, L/V winds overnight will increase out of the NNW after 16Z.

MARINE
Issued at 341 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Marine conditions will remain generally benign with a light to moderate NE flow in place today. Weather conditions should remain generally dry over the marine zones, with maybe an isolated shower or two in the afternoon hours. The drier trend is expected to prevail through the rest of the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 72 86 73 84 / 0 10 20 10 West Kendall 72 87 73 85 / 0 10 20 20 Opa-Locka 72 87 72 85 / 0 0 10 10 Homestead 72 86 73 84 / 0 10 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 85 72 82 / 0 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 85 72 83 / 0 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 71 87 71 85 / 0 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 71 85 71 83 / 0 10 10 10 Boca Raton 72 84 72 82 / 0 10 20 10 Naples 72 84 69 83 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.