Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Ensemble and global solutions remain in fair agreement in depicting an upper-lvl low lingering around the Florida west coast through the rest of today, then gradually migrating northeast tomorrow. It will continue to influence the area with a flow pattern very favorable for deep moisture to keep streaming across SoFlo. MFL 12Z sounding data confirms PWATs above 2 inches (2.18), and model soundings keep values in the 2.1-2.4" through the short term.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours, with best chances along sea breeze boundaries. Subsequent outflow boundary collisions from early thunderstorms may also produce additional convection that could last into the evening hours, especially along the east coast. 500mb temps remain in the -7C to - 8C, so a few strong storms can't be ruled out. The greater concern remains in the potential for slow-moving, or even stationary downpours, resulting in localized flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected, and up to 4" in isolated cases. This may result in urban flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. WPC continues to keep the east coast metro areas under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the rest of today and Tuesday.

Similar forecast scenario for Tuesday, except for the departure of the aforementioned low, which will help in warming up by one or two degrees the temperatures aloft. This may help in having less stronger storms, but still expecting widespread coverage in the afternoon (max POPs in the 70% range).

Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 70s, then afternoon highs on Tuesday will again reach the upper 80s to around 90.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Mid to late week an upper level low moves into the eastern US and then lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. A frontal boundary will slide south across the state on Thursday and settle either over far southern FL or across the Straits Friday and remain there through the upcoming weekend. Some drier air will likely filter at least down to the lake region late in the week, but will struggle to make it all the way through South FL. This is reflected in the PoPs for late in the week into the weekend with the highest PoPs over the far southern peninsula and lower chance PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall it will remain a wet and unsettled period across South FL, with at least isolated instances of urban flooding remaining possible each day.

Temperatures through the extended period remain near normal with highs each day generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

SE winds will become L/V after 00-01Z. Passing showers and storms could still bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR across the Atlantic terminals this evening, which will be handled with TEMPOS as necessary. Winds resume from the SE after 15-16Z, but remain weak, except for westerly breeze at APF with Gulf breezes. Another round of thunderstorms is likely Tuesday afternoon with PROB30 in place for all terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Gentle southerly flow is expected over the area waters today. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms expected each day this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 77 88 77 87 / 30 70 50 90 West Kendall 76 87 76 87 / 30 80 50 90 Opa-Locka 76 88 76 87 / 30 70 50 90 Homestead 76 88 76 88 / 40 70 60 90 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 76 87 / 40 70 50 90 N Ft Lauderdale 77 88 77 88 / 30 70 50 90 Pembroke Pines 76 88 76 87 / 30 70 50 90 West Palm Beach 75 88 76 88 / 30 80 40 80 Boca Raton 76 88 76 88 / 40 70 50 80 Naples 76 88 76 88 / 60 70 60 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.