Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
December 7, 2023 10:36 PM EST (03:36 UTC)
Sunrise 6:53AM Sunset 5:32PM Moonrise 1:51AM Moonset 1:58PM
GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 433 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots, becoming east. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west to northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas subsiding to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest to north winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north to northeast. Seas building to 2 to 3 feet, except building to 3 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Monday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to near 20 knots. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet, except building to 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming rough. Isolated showers.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..Northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots, becoming east. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west to northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas subsiding to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest to north winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north to northeast. Seas building to 2 to 3 feet, except building to 3 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Monday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to near 20 knots. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet, except building to 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming rough. Isolated showers.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..Northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.
GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 433 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will gradually veer from the northeast to the southeast tonight through Saturday night, as high pressure over the southeast moves eastward into the western north atlantic. Another cold front will approach the florida keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night, with slackening breezes and a bout of unsettled weather possible ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northeast breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday and Tuesday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 05...
56 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 20 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 15 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 17 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 20 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 12 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 9 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 2 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will gradually veer from the northeast to the southeast tonight through Saturday night, as high pressure over the southeast moves eastward into the western north atlantic. Another cold front will approach the florida keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night, with slackening breezes and a bout of unsettled weather possible ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northeast breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday and Tuesday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 05...
56 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 20 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 15 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 17 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 20 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 12 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 9 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 2 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 080058 AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 758 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 730 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Less cooler temps this afternoon and early evening with highs back in the mid-upper 70s across the area. As a ridge migrates over the region towards the west Atlantic, expect winds to continue to gradually shift to the E/SE through Friday afternoon.
This will mark the onset of a warming trend that will see afternoon temps climb back into the 80s for the weekend.
But the air mass is not going to modify quickly enough tonight, with overnight lows still dropping into the mid-upper 50s inland, and low-mid 60s near the coasts. Evening update will only touch on those lows, just a dregree cooler from previous package, but in general, the forecast remains on track and no other adjustments are required attm.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Not much to discuss in terms of local weather impacts through the short term forecast period. An extremely dry parcel of air remains over the Southern Florida peninsula this afternoon with 850mb RHs reading less than 10% on the most recent MFL sounding. This significant dry air coupled with a lack of synoptic and even mesoscale forcing will lead to a dry remainder of today and a dry Friday to close out the week. With a return to easterly flow expected tomorrow, a few weak isolated showers will be possible for easternmost areas, but these will be extremely short-lived and weak in nature. The vast majority of the area will remain dry on Friday with only a trace of rainfall expected for areas that may experience a shower.
As high pressure propagates eastward through the day today, surface flow will veer more easterly by the evening hours today which should act to moderate the low temperatures this evening and subsequently, high temperatures for Friday as well as we lose the northerly component to the wind. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 60s along the coasts with mid 50s for interior areas. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
A mid level ridge of high pressure will continue to push eastward on Saturday as a deepening mid level trough amplifies as it moves through the Great Plains. While the mid level ridge will still remain close enough to provide mainly dry conditions to the region on Saturday, just enough moisture advection will be taking place to support an isolated shower or two over the Atlantic waters and east coast. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
On Sunday, the deepening mid level trough will continue to push into the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a strong frontal boundary will move through the Southeast and into Northern and Central Florida as the day progresses. Out ahead of this front, winds across the region will shift to the south southwest and chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase as well. Uncertainty still remains high with the exact details as the latest ensemble guidance has slowed the eastward progression of the mid level trough and surface frontal boundary. This would put the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the best dynamics and instability still look to remain well up to the north, the potential for a strong thunderstorm or two containing gusty winds and heavy downpours remains in place. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Sunday will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
With the guidance favoring a slower motion of the frontal boundary, the actual passage of the front looks to be during the overnight and early morning hours of Monday before potentially stalling out over the Florida Straits. Cold air advection looks to be limited across South Florida as winds quickly veer to more of a north northeast direction Monday into Tuesday with high pressure building in from the north. Uncertainty in the forecast remains high during the early to middle portion of next week due to guidance remaining in disagreement in regards to the strength of the high building in from the north. A stronger high pressure would build further south possibly allowing for some drier air to build in during this time frame. A weaker area of high pressure would keep the stalled frontal boundary to the south closer to the region, keeping moisture values higher along with the chances of showers. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models gradually increasing the shower chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures on Monday look to range from the upper 60s west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 70s across the east coast. With the winds becoming northeasterly, a gradual moderating trend will take place for Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to veer ENE through the TAF period, with speeds back in the 10-12kt range after 15Z.
MARINE
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Hazardous marine conditions today will gradually subside as winds reduce and turn out of the northeast with time. Despite this decrease in wind intensity, hazardous marine conditions may linger over the Atlantic waters this morning, with wave heights ranging from 5 to 8 feet. Winds will continue to shift from the east by Friday and southeast by the weekend. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out later in the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.
BEACHES
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least the end of the week. This elevated threat may persist into the weekend as winds retain their onshore component.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 67 78 71 81 / 0 10 10 0 West Kendall 63 79 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 79 69 82 / 0 10 10 0 Homestead 65 79 70 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 67 78 71 81 / 0 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 67 78 71 81 / 0 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 65 79 68 82 / 0 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 64 77 68 80 / 0 10 20 10 Boca Raton 66 78 70 82 / 0 10 20 10 Naples 60 79 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 758 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 730 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Less cooler temps this afternoon and early evening with highs back in the mid-upper 70s across the area. As a ridge migrates over the region towards the west Atlantic, expect winds to continue to gradually shift to the E/SE through Friday afternoon.
This will mark the onset of a warming trend that will see afternoon temps climb back into the 80s for the weekend.
But the air mass is not going to modify quickly enough tonight, with overnight lows still dropping into the mid-upper 50s inland, and low-mid 60s near the coasts. Evening update will only touch on those lows, just a dregree cooler from previous package, but in general, the forecast remains on track and no other adjustments are required attm.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Not much to discuss in terms of local weather impacts through the short term forecast period. An extremely dry parcel of air remains over the Southern Florida peninsula this afternoon with 850mb RHs reading less than 10% on the most recent MFL sounding. This significant dry air coupled with a lack of synoptic and even mesoscale forcing will lead to a dry remainder of today and a dry Friday to close out the week. With a return to easterly flow expected tomorrow, a few weak isolated showers will be possible for easternmost areas, but these will be extremely short-lived and weak in nature. The vast majority of the area will remain dry on Friday with only a trace of rainfall expected for areas that may experience a shower.
As high pressure propagates eastward through the day today, surface flow will veer more easterly by the evening hours today which should act to moderate the low temperatures this evening and subsequently, high temperatures for Friday as well as we lose the northerly component to the wind. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 60s along the coasts with mid 50s for interior areas. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
A mid level ridge of high pressure will continue to push eastward on Saturday as a deepening mid level trough amplifies as it moves through the Great Plains. While the mid level ridge will still remain close enough to provide mainly dry conditions to the region on Saturday, just enough moisture advection will be taking place to support an isolated shower or two over the Atlantic waters and east coast. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
On Sunday, the deepening mid level trough will continue to push into the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a strong frontal boundary will move through the Southeast and into Northern and Central Florida as the day progresses. Out ahead of this front, winds across the region will shift to the south southwest and chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase as well. Uncertainty still remains high with the exact details as the latest ensemble guidance has slowed the eastward progression of the mid level trough and surface frontal boundary. This would put the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the best dynamics and instability still look to remain well up to the north, the potential for a strong thunderstorm or two containing gusty winds and heavy downpours remains in place. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Sunday will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
With the guidance favoring a slower motion of the frontal boundary, the actual passage of the front looks to be during the overnight and early morning hours of Monday before potentially stalling out over the Florida Straits. Cold air advection looks to be limited across South Florida as winds quickly veer to more of a north northeast direction Monday into Tuesday with high pressure building in from the north. Uncertainty in the forecast remains high during the early to middle portion of next week due to guidance remaining in disagreement in regards to the strength of the high building in from the north. A stronger high pressure would build further south possibly allowing for some drier air to build in during this time frame. A weaker area of high pressure would keep the stalled frontal boundary to the south closer to the region, keeping moisture values higher along with the chances of showers. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models gradually increasing the shower chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures on Monday look to range from the upper 60s west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 70s across the east coast. With the winds becoming northeasterly, a gradual moderating trend will take place for Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to veer ENE through the TAF period, with speeds back in the 10-12kt range after 15Z.
MARINE
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Hazardous marine conditions today will gradually subside as winds reduce and turn out of the northeast with time. Despite this decrease in wind intensity, hazardous marine conditions may linger over the Atlantic waters this morning, with wave heights ranging from 5 to 8 feet. Winds will continue to shift from the east by Friday and southeast by the weekend. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out later in the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.
BEACHES
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least the end of the week. This elevated threat may persist into the weekend as winds retain their onshore component.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 67 78 71 81 / 0 10 10 0 West Kendall 63 79 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 79 69 82 / 0 10 10 0 Homestead 65 79 70 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 67 78 71 81 / 0 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 67 78 71 81 / 0 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 65 79 68 82 / 0 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 64 77 68 80 / 0 10 20 10 Boca Raton 66 78 70 82 / 0 10 20 10 Naples 60 79 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LONF1 - Long Key, FL | 21 mi | 36 min | N 9.9G | 70°F | 30.12 | 63°F | ||
| VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL | 37 mi | 48 min | NE 11G | 70°F | 71°F | |||
| SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL | 40 mi | 36 min | E 14G | 74°F | 30.11 | 60°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from MTH
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 04:30 AM EST 1.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 10:42 AM EST 0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:37 PM EST 1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 11:06 PM EST 0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 04:30 AM EST 1.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 10:42 AM EST 0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:37 PM EST 1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 11:06 PM EST 0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Long Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:51 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 04:46 AM EST 0.81 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:40 AM EST -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:55 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:59 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST 0.69 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:51 PM EST -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:51 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 04:46 AM EST 0.81 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:40 AM EST -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:55 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:59 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST 0.69 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:51 PM EST -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.6 |
| 1 am |
| -0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| -0.1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.6 |
| 10 am |
| -0.8 |
| 11 am |
| -0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -1 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.1 |
Miami, FL,
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