Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Surface high pressure over South Florida will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next few days, leading to dry and stable conditions across the region. Ridging aloft actually flattens a little bit today as a shortwave trough crosses through the Great Lakes, bringing a stalling cold front over north Florida. The 18z MFL sounding shows a pretty similar environment to yesterday, with mid-level dry air and subsidence contributing to a pretty stout cap at 750 mb. As a result, no rain is expected across the region, despite PWATs of 1.3 to 1.4 inches. High pressure will also allow for light and variable winds and mostly clear skies overnight, resulting in effective radiational cooling. There is still some uncertainty among guidance, but there is a signal for patchy fog to develop along the Everglades and southwest Florida during the early morning hours on Friday. For now, there is low confidence for any significant visibility impacts, but the main ares that would get affected would be the western parts of Tamiami Trail and Alligator Alley.

The mid-level ridge axis that is currently over the Gulf, will shift eastward towards the Caribbean and the Strait of Florida. This will allow for 500 mb heights to raise slightly over the region, up to around the 75th percentile for this time of year. Dry mid level air and surface high pressure will continue to control the pattern over South Florida on Friday, leading to another sunny afternoon. High temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s across the region.
As a result, there is a moderate Heat Risk (level 2 of 4) across interior portions of South Florida and eastern metro areas.
Sensitive individuals will be most at risk without proper hydration or prolonged outdoor exposure. Overall, winds will be 5 to 10 kts and out of the southwest, keeping the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the eastern coastlines.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The synoptic pattern across the eastern CONUS begins to change as deep longwave troughing digs into the Deep South. Lobes of vorticity associated with this wave will swing down from the Midwest and south towards the Gulf. This, along with the subtropical jet rounding the base of the trough, will promote favorable ascent for frontogenesis.
As a result, a cold front will swing south through north Florida on Saturday. Ensemble cluster analysis still indicates that there are some key timing difference among solutions resolving the speed and strength of the front as it makes its way into central Florida. Most of these difference have to do with the evolution of the parent upper low over Quebec and how it ejects east. However, guidance is starting to zero in on the main window for when the front starts to enter South Florida to be late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The one outlier seems to be the NAM deterministic model, showing the front moving through on late Sunday.

But before getting into the nitty-gritty details regarding the frontal induced weather for the end of the weekend, the more pertinent concern for Saturday is actually the heat. As the front slides southward, pressure gradients will increase across the region, inducing a stronger southerly flow over the area. Warm and moist advection from southerly to southwesterly winds will increase dewpoints and temperatures throughout SoFlo. Surface high pressure will stay strong ahead of the front in southwest Florida, keeping dry and stable air aloft for another day of mostly sunny skies. This will allow for efficient daytime heating, creating heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Widespread moderate Heat Risk (level 2 of 4) will be present across most of South Florida. East coast metro areas within the urban heat island may see high temperatures climb to near record for this time of year, close to the mid 90s. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic Heat Risk, shows up to an 80% chance for localized Major Heat Risk (level 3 of 4) in northern metro Dade county and southern metro Broward. Inadequate hydration or proper cooling may lead to heat illness for anyone outside for long periods of time.

By late Saturday night into Sunday, winds will begin to shift westerly and then northerly as the front begins to swing through the region. The bottom line up front: widespread rainfall is expected across the region for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Exact placement of heaviest rainfall amounts is still uncertain, but ensemble QPF clusters have trended upward for rainfall amounts. Many areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with localized heavier amounts of 2 to 4 inches. A faster propagating solution, as described by some of the clusters, would lead to a 'drier' and quicker system with less rainfall. But a slower system could allow for prolonged moisture convergence and heavier rainfall. Some reasonable worst case scenarios indicate that widespread amounts of 3 inches may be possible. As a result, there is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for parts for South Florida on Sunday.
Pooling water in low lying areas and localized urban flooding will be the main concerns. While more favorable farther north, a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Better dynamics from the right entrance region of the subtropical jet in north Florida and increased shear could be enough to allow for storms to grow stronger. Strong winds would be the main concern, but with 500 mb temperatures near -11 C closer to the Lake counties, hail may also be a possibility.

The front looks to stall in the vicinity of our region through the early part of the week, keeping a deeply moist airmass over the area. With PWATs near 1.8 inches, low to moderate chances for showers should remain through at least Tuesday. However, less favorable forcing and dynamics should keep the threat of heavy flooding rainfall at little to none for Tuesday. After that, high pressure ridging looks to once again begin building over the Gulf, lowering chances of rain and increasing temperatures areawide.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 802 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Light and variable winds overnight will veer to an onshore component along both coasts tomorrow afternoon with dry and VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals throughout the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Winds will veer to a southwesterly direction across the Gulf waters and out of a southerly direction across the nearshore Atlantic waters today where an afternoon wind surge could result in a brief duration of small craft exercise caution conditions (SCEC) across the northern Atlantic waters. A similar wind flow regime will play out on Friday before winds enhance further in strength, remaining out of a southerly to southwesterly direction during the upcoming weekend. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2 to 4 feet through the rest of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. The arrival of a frontal boundary in the vicinity of South Florida during the second half of the weekend into next week could result in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the local waters which could bring locally hazardous winds and waves during that time frame.

BEACHES
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will persist across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the rest of the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A nocturnal inversion present across the majority of inland South Florida at daybreak will erode over the remainder of the morning hours as winds gradually enhance out of southwesterly direction.
While wind speeds will remain relatively light, enhanced fire behavior remains possible this afternoon as a combination of dry fuels (Fire Potential Forecast of 4) and relative humidity values (mid 30s to low 40s) near critical thresholds is forecast for inland locations once again. A similar evolution is forecast on Friday, with an additional window of enhanced fire behavior during the afternoon hours. Closer to the coast, onshore winds will moderate the airmass slightly precluding lower relative humidity values.

CLIMATE
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today's Forecasted High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 88 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 87 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 89

Today's 90th Percentile High Temperature Values: (1 in 10 Chance)
Miami (KMIA): 92 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 89 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 91

Today's Record Maximum High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 96 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 97 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 99

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 70 89 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 66 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 70 91 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 69 89 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 88 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 88 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 71 92 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 89 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 70 88 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 70 87 71 88 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.