NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 PM Friday...High pressure remains centered offshore this afternoon and will move little through tonight while thermal trough centered across the Piedmont eventually weakens and dissipates. As expected, gusty S'rly winds along the coast and seabreeze have developed this afternoon with winds gusting to 20-30 mph at times. Oppressive heat and humidity have also spread across much of ENC this afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland combining with humidity making it feel closer to 105-110F in places. The ongoing heat advisory continues with a heat advisory issued for Sat as well.
Otherwise, widespread diurnal Cu field has once again set up out ahead of the seabreeze with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity noted along the Coastal Plain. An isolated storm or two could become strong in nature as SBCAPE values have increased to around 1500-3000 J/kg and with DCAPE values around 7-900 J/kg, could see the potential for a gust around 40-50 mph in the strongest storms. Expect continued iso/widely scattered shower/tstm activity through the rest of the afternoon before precip chances end after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

As we get into tonight not much change in the forecast as we don't get much relief from the heat and humidity with light S'rly flow continuing to pump a warm and moist airmass N'wards. Lows get into in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...Not much change in the upper or low level patterns on Sat across the area as upper ridging will remain over the Southeast and an upper level low begins to approach from the east. Expect the seabreeze to get going once again in the afternoon while a thermal trough looks to get set up across the Piedmont. The biggest change in the forecast is the approach of a cold front from the west which will be located near the Appalachians on Sat. This thermal trough and front will finally provide some increased lift across ENC tomorrow. Combined with increasing instability with SBCAPE values around 1500-3000 J/kg and ample moisture with PWATs around 2+ inches across ENC expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be slightly more widespread along the seabreeze and thermal trough Sat afternoon and evening. As a result have SChc to Chc PoP's (and even some likely PoP's towards the evening hours) across the area for Sat afternoon starting after about 11AM. While storms will be more pulse in nature, a few storms could produce some stronger wind gusts given the strong instability and heavy rain given the high PWATs across the area. Once again, as we get towards sunset precip chances begin to dwindle with the loss of daytime heating.

Another hot and oppressively humid day is forecast across ENC on Saturday with heat advisory in place across much of ENC outside of the coastal locations and OBX. Temps get as high as the mid to upper 90s across our inland areas with upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and OBX. Combined with the humidity it will feel like its 105-110F away from the coast and closer to 95-105 along the coast and OBX. Much like on Friday make sure to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and try to limit strenuous outdoor activity during the daytime.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 250 AM Fri...

A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this weekend into next week. Expect convective chances to be near or slightly above climo, with better chances for more widespread coverage mid to late next week. Another front will approach the area late next week, possibly stalling over the area as weak waves develop along it. Still too much uncertainty this far out, so will continue to cap pops at chance through the period.
At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". Temps beyond Sat look to be near climo, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Sat/...
As of 115 PM Friday...Expecting primarily VFR conditions through the TAF period with an isolated threat for seeing ceilings/vis fall below VFR this afternoon and early evening as isolated showers and thunderstorms develop along the seabreeze.
With the threat for iso showers and storms in place have kept in VCTS for all terminals, though threat does look to remain primarily along and west of Hwy 17. As we get into tonight and Saturday expecting VFR conditions to persist before our next threat for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon.

Otherwise, expect gusty conditions for OBX and immediate coast with a thermal gradient setting up from hot conditions over land and (relatively) cooler waters off OBX. Southerly gusts up to 30mph are possible from 1PM to 10PM Friday. Will also see gusty winds behind the seabreeze as well with gusts up to 20-25 mph at times. Winds ease tonight and remain light through Sat morning coming from a S'rly direction.

LONG TERM /Saturday afternoon through Wednesday/...
As of 250 AM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct shower/tstm chances, mainly diurnal, return this weekend and early next week, which could bring periods of sub- VFR.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Gusty winds as a result of a thermal trough across the Piedmont has tightened the pressure gradient slightly as this trough interacts with ridging offshore. As it stands now southerly winds to 15-20G25-30kts across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke/Albemarle Sounds, Alligator River, and northern Coastal waters are ongoing so the SCA remains in place into tonight. Winds will ease later tonight around 11PM closer to 10-20 kts which will end the ongoing SCA's. Elsewhere across our waters 10-20 kt S'rly winds will continue to persist into Sat. 3-5 ft seas are noted this afternoon and will change little through Saturday. As we get into SAt the thermal trough looks to set up once again resulting in a threat for SCA's across the same waters that have them up now.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 250 AM Fri...Typical summertime pattern expected through the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Sat, strongest during the late afternoon and evening. There is potential for a brief period of 25 kt gusts Sat eve, which could bring short duration marginal SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15 kt Sun through Tue. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period. Expect longer period swells to diminish this weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ029-044>046- 079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 135-150-230-231.