Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM   Moonset 3:19 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1247 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tue night - E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Wed - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1247 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead through the weekend. A backdoor front likely moves through the area late Monday, with high pressure building in behind it from the north through midweek. Thereafter high pressure will reestablish offshore through late next week with increasingly unsettled conditions possible.

FXUS62 KMHX 020122 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 922 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cooler and dry high pressure builds overhead through the weekend. A backdoor front likely moves through the area late Monday, with high pressure building in behind it from the north through midweek. Thereafter high pressure will reestablish offshore through late next week with increasingly unsettled conditions possible.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 920 PM Sat...Expansive ridging sits over the eastern seaboard this evening while surface high pressure gradually slides off the coast of the Carolinas overnight. Cirrus coverage continues to gradually increase as a plume of moisture associated with a barotropic low over the central MS River Valley, and attendant surface front draped south to the Gulf of Mexico, shifts eastward.

Forecast tonight is dry but increasingly cloudy as upper level moisture continues to increase, aiding in broken to near overcast skies. The increased coverage will inhibit the kind of radiational cooling we saw last night, although temps will be able to drop more rapidly this evening while coverage remains scattered/less opaque.

With the60 surface high shifting offshore, winds overnight become southerly to southwesterly encouraging low-level moistening. Consequently, overnight lows will be considerably more mild with lows ranging from the mid to upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s along the water.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As of 310 PM Sat...Heights fall tomorrow as central CONUS low pressure lifts towards the Great Lakes, breaking down the ridge.
Surface high pressure will remain in control tomorrow while shifting further offshore. Low-level thicknesses increase modestly, and nudged highs up a couple degrees from the previous forecast (mid 80s, low 80s OBX). A minority of CAMs are hinting at a few showers developing along the sea breeze in the afternoon, but think surface subsidence will win out and kept PoPs below mentionable.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM Sat...Pleasant and below normal conditions continue Sunday. Then conditions become more unsettled Monday ahead of a backdoor cold front which will move through the area Monday night and bring slightly cooler conditions through Wednesday.
Scattered precip chances continue Tuesday, and then increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday through late week as moist southerly flow increases.

Monday and Tuesday...Moisture will continue to spread into the area early Monday morning from the top down, and may produce some isolated showers through daybreak. Moisture advection continues Monday as PWATs surge above 1.5", and expect a decent coverage (~40%) of showers and thunderstorms with building instability and the development of sea/sound breezes.

A backdoor cold front will move through the forecast area overnight Monday into Tuesday morning and bring a more stable and slightly cooler airmass to the coast. Onshore flow will keep coastal areas mostly in the 70s, but further inland temps will climb into the low to mid 80s, and encourage some scattered afternoon thunderstorm development.

Wednesday through Friday...Moisture looks to quickly surge back into the forecast area Wednesday as the high pressure to the north breaks down. Southerly flow will return late in the day, and will then continue through late week as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Continued moisture advection will bring PWATs up to 1.5-2" late next week, and there is a signal for unsettled conditions ahead of a potent upper level trough. Temperatures will climb to near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s each day, and lows mostly in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 605 PM Sat...The probability of IFR flight conditions over the next 24 hours is very low...less than 10%.

VFR conditions with light winds are forecast to prevail across all terminals through Sunday as high pressure continues to influence the weather. Cirri will be gradually increasing from the west as moisture plume ahead of a weak barotropic low over the central MS River Valley shifts eastward. Deepest moisture is confined in the mid and high levels and only impact overnight will be the introduction of cigs above 12 kft. The clouds will should play spoiler to any threat of fog at the terminals overnight by inhibiting radiational cooling. By tomorrow morning, the Cirrus should move well east but increasing low- level moisture with southerly return flow will aid in eventual diurnal cu development Sun afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Mostly VFR conditions are expected Sunday with high pressure overhead. More unsettled conditions are possible Monday through Wednesday which could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 920 PM Sun...Benign boating conditions expected through the period as sprawling high pressure shifts offshore but remains in control over area waters over the next 24 hours.
Light winds currently over the region this evening, with speeds at 10 kts or less. As the high moves further out to sea, winds overnight veer predominantly south to southwesterly around 10 kt and remain so into Sun afternoon. Increasing thermal gradient tomorrow afternoon will increase winds late in the day to 10-15 kt, especially for soundside waters and offshore waters north of Cape Hatteras.

Currently observed seas of 2-3 feet will hold steady through the period.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Good boating conditions expected through the period. High pressure continues over the waters Sunday and Monday, and then a backdoor front moves through early Tuesday and keep light onshore flow into Wednesday.

Winds will be mostly S 5-15 kts Sunday, and then turn to the SSW Monday at 10-15 kts. Backdoor front moves through the waters early Tuesday with winds becoming NNE behind it at 5-15 kts.
Flow then become E to SE Wednesday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the period.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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