NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 1010 AM Mon...No big changes to fcst. Have fine-tuned where axis of heavier rain and storms shall fall later this afternoon. Looks like a decent area of convergence will set up acrs the coastal plain counties, per latest meso analysis indicating decent moisture flux here, esp as sunshine makes a return. In tandem, have dec pops to just slight chance ctrl/srn OBX down to Crystal Coast, as sea breeze should keep activity inland. May have to add Duplin to suite of flood watches, and will monitor trends thorugh the next few hours.

Prev disc
As of 700 AM Monday

- Potential for marginally severe thunderstorms and flooding today

Within the broad southwesterly flow regime aloft exists at least a couple of embedded shortwaves/MCVs impacting the Southeast U.S. early this morning. The most notable is a wave ejecting out of Georgia, which is proving an area of diffluent flow aloft over the Carolinas. Within this diffluent flow, multiple areas of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, the heaviest of which is currently along the NC coastline from Wilmington north through Morehead City. I expect this morning convection to persist for several more hours before weakening as the associated lift moves away from the area.

Attention then turns to this afternoon as residual boundaries and the seabreeze combine with increased large-scale lift from the GA wave, likely producing another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. I expect this next round will tend to be focused across the Coastal Plain and Albemarle Sound vicinity.
With this activity, there will be a modest increase in the flow aloft thanks to the GA wave, supporting deep layer shear of 25-30kt. The increased shear will enhance the storm organization potential, opening the door to a few marginally severe thunderstorms (main hazard being gusty/damaging winds). Despite the ongoing convection this morning, I currently don't expect a significant impact on the afternoon/evening convection, but we'll continue to closely monitor trends in case this were to change. Lastly, short-term guidance suggests some modest low- level shear/helicity in the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound/Northern OBX. If this materializes, this could support a brief tornado risk, although the gusty/damaging wind risk appears to be the greatest hazard.

Regarding the flooding risk, today's rain will fall on saturated soils. Of note, rainfall for July is running 200%+ of normal for much of ENC, and FFG values are relatively low for this time of year. Of note, 1 hr FFG are as low as 2", or so, for portions of the area, especially north of HWY 70. For this reason, and with high rainfall rates again expected, it shouldn't take much for at least a few instances of flooding/flash flooding. With this forecast update, we'll hoist a Flood Watch for a portion of the area, where ensemble guidance shows the greatest risk of higher rainfall rates overlapped with where the lowest FFG values are. Some adjustments to the watch may be needed as the convective evolution becomes more clear.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM Monday...

- Break in thunderstorms possible tonight

While convection is expected to be ongoing this evening tied to a shortwave lifting through the Carolinas, it appears there will be a relative minimum in lift overnight, which I suspect will translate to a lower risk of convection compared to the past few nights. With this in mind, I lowered the chance of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight period. However, given the continued moist and unstable airmass in place, I felt it was prudent to leave at least an isolated/scattered mention in place (as opposed to going completely dry).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 AM Mon...An unsettled pattern is forecast across the area with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across ENC into this weekend as very moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak front(s) persists over/near eastern NC through the period. Any shower or thunderstorm that impacts ENC through this week will have a threat for torrential downpours. As we get into the end of the weekend and early next week high pressure building in from the north may finally bring lower precip chances.

Tuesday through Sunday...Overall the ongoing unsettled pattern is forecast to continue across ENC over the next several days. A very moist airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary, and weak shortwaves emanating out of the Great Lakes- Central US mid level trough will lead to an above climo chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. The showers and storms will have the potential to produce torrential downpours as PW values will remain around 2" or higher through the period and model soundings suggest ample moisture throughout the warm layer. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by late this week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. Biggest change in the forecast was to lower PoP's Tuesday morning down to 30-50% given the latest Hi-Res guidance showing a direr trend in precip for that time period. Otherwise much like the last few nights have capped PoP's to high end chance to likely (40-70%) each day from Wed through Sat with the highest PoP's being on Thurs/Fri. Even with capping the PoP values, we are still well above climo (30-40%) for this time of year. As we get into Sunday, high pressure may try to build in from the north which would allow some drier air to finally work its way into ENC late this weekend and lower precip chances, however given how far out this is, will have to monitor trends in the coming days.
High temps will run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be slightly above normal through the period.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through 12z Tuesday/...
As of 700 AM Monday...

- Periods of TSRA to impact ENC over the next 24 hours

SHRA and TSRA will impact coastal areas this morning with low CIGs , gusty winds to 35kt, and reduced VIS. After a brief lull, it appears the risk of TSRA will then shift inland to the coastal plain, and the Albemarle Sound vicinity, through the day. This next round of TSRA will have an increased risk of 40kt+ and sub-VFR conditions. Moving into tonight, it appears there will be enough of a lull in lift to keep the TSRA risk lower compared to the past few nights. However, with a moist and unstable airmass still in place, the risk isn't zero.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon... No real changes since the previous update as the pattern will change little through the end of the week.
Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers and storms will continue into the end of the week with occasional sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

- Marginal SCA conditions possible this afternoon/evening (30-50% chance)

- Periods of thunderstorms to impact the waters through this evening

An upper level wave will lift out of Georgia this morning, and move through the Carolinas later today. It's expected that this wave will lead to another increased risk of showers and thunderstorms from this morning through this evening.
Additionally, a tightening pressure and thermal gradient looks to be supportive of a short period of 20-25kt southwesterly wind gusts and elevated seas of 3-5 ft. This puts some of our waters close to SCA criteria. Confidence in several hours of SCA conditions is moderate (30-50% chance), so for now we'll hold off on any marine headlines. However, confidence was high enough to increase winds some, especially late this afternoon into this evening.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...We start the long term period out with 5-15 kt SW'rly winds with 20 kt gusts across our waters and 3-5 ft seas across the coastal zones. May see an uptick closer to 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25 kts at times Tue and Wed afternoon/evening as a thermal gradient sets up across the area, but given NBM probs of SCA force gusts remaining below 30% across all waters each day, SCA's appear to be unlikely right now for either Tue or Wed afternoon. As we get into Thurs, winds ease slightly closer to 10-15 kts with winds easing further on Fri and becoming more W'rly out ahead of an approaching front.
Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through Wed before lowering down to 2-4 ft. Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas.

HYDROLOGY
As of 330 AM Monday...

The area will remain in a high PWAT airmass for much of the upcoming work week. The areas at greatest risk of flooding will change from day to day, but in general, much of the area will have at least some risk for excessive rainfall/flooding at times for the next several days.

For today, in particular, a Flood Watch has been issued to cover areas along and north of HWY 70 where FFG values are the lowest and where ensemble guidance shows the highest probabilities of excessive rainfall.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081- 091-092-094-193-194-203.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205.
MARINE...None.