UPDATE
No changes to the forecast this morning. Neighbors and I collaborated that there will be no need for a Heat Advisory today.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure that extends up and down the entire eastern seaboard. The old frontal boundary in SC Lowcountry is still hanging on, but has made a slight northward push into the Sea Islands of Beaufort County, SC. Meanwhile, the anticyclone continues to spin over the Deep South.

Surface high pressure moves offshore today, which increases the onshore flow across the area. Subsidence keeps rain chances at bay, with a stout inversion noted at around 700mb. The bad news is that heat and humidity is on the rise, and heat indices will hit the triple digits today for the first time since last weekend. We don't quite hit Heat Advisory criteria (heat index of 105-109 degrees for 2+ hours), but it doesn't necessarily matter. Keep up the water intake, wear light clothing, and limit the outdoor activities. Stay frosty.

Lows tonight in the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Some of the typical cool spots may try to dip down into the upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Highlights: *Unseasonably hot and humid through the period with Heat Advisories likely and possibly also Excessive Heat Warnings

Confidence: *Moderate to High

Details:

Main concern this period is the excessive heat and humidity as an unusually warm air mass under deep high pressure prevails. This will generally keep rain chances limited until possibly Saturday afternoon across inland areas where moisture/forcing will be a bit more favorable. Fortunately, the severe storm threat appears pretty low given the lack of deep layer shear. However, minor flooding is probably more of a threat given the potential of heavy rainfall given the plentiful moisture (PWAT >2") and weak deep layer flow.

Temps should be above normal through the period with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s and lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Heat indices should peak mostly below Excessive Heat Warning criteria (110 degrees) Friday with Heat Advisories most likely away from the immediate coast. On Saturday heat indices should be similar despite possibly lower temps since dewpoints should be a bit higher.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Highlights: *Dangerous heat/humidity possible through the period

Confidence: *Moderate

Details:

An upper low offshore early in the week could help weaken the upper ridge a bit but generally looks like the ridge will remain in place.
At the surface, an approaching cold front should lose steam as it heads our way early in the week but could help increase rain chances a bit. Although can't rule out a few severe storms through the period, the bigger concern will likely continue to be the heavy rain and minor flood potential. Models currently suggest some decent rain potential this period, especially inland where drought conditions are the worse. Although temps will be greatly dependent on the rain/cloud coverage we should have at least a slight risk for Heat Advisory potential each day, especially away from the immediate coastal areas.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR through the period. Winds will become light and somewhat variable tonight, with a SW component coming to dominate Friday.
There is one or two pieces of model guidance that depict short-lived showers tonight at ILM roughly 09-12Z but they are not the accepted solution at this time.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of flight restrictions this weekend and into early next week as chances for convection return.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Southeasterly winds become SSW by tonight.
Sustained speeds at 5-10kts to start, and then kick up to 10-15kts this afternoon and evening. Seas linger at 1-3ft, with an easterly swell at 6-7 seconds, and then long period southeasterly swells at 12-14 seconds (from Hurricane Beryl).

Friday through Monday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with a cold front likely stalling out inland early next week. Although winds will be elevated at times, mainly each afternoon due to the sea breeze, they should mostly stay 20 kt or less. Seas will stay 4 ft or less with wave periods diminishing through the period as the SE swells subside. Thus, not expecting any Small Craft Advisories.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.