NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 255 PM Sunday...Key messages for tonight and Monday: 1) Normal temps and summer humidity Monday with scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through early this evening. The main threat will be locally heavy rains though an isolated damaging wind gust can't be ruled out.

The atmosphere is primed today for continued development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as a decaying frontal boundary sags south into NC. Ahead of this front, a tropical like airmass prevails with PW values >2". MUCAPES are around 2500 J/kg which is supporting some vigorous updrafts.
The only missing ingredient will be shear which is virtually non existent. This means that most of todays convection will be very pulsy with storms developing and decaying rather quickly.
However, cell mergers will lead to more sustained and persistent multi-cell clusters which will increase the flood threat. Cold pools may also be strong enough for an isolated microburst or two as water loaded downdrafts occur in the strongest and most persistent convection.

The storms initiated on local sea breeze/sound breeze/river breezes and differential heating boundaries. The greatest coverage of storms should be along the inland moving sea breeze and areas north of the Pamlico River. Will continue the likely PoPs through 00Z. The steering flow is very weak thus storms are expected to be slow and erratic moving. Stronger storms will occur in cell mergers and interacting outflows where very rains are likely to occur leading to a localized flash flood threat.
The CAMs are indicating the potential for localized rainfall amounts of 3-5" in the most persistent downpours.

The showers and storms will weaken by 00Z with the loss of heating and should end most locations by 3 or 4Z. The exception will be along the immediate coast late as the land cools and the warm shelf waters become a source of lift leading to widely scattered showers possibly impacting the immediate coast.

Temps tonight are forecast to be sultry in the low to mid 70s and light southerly coastal breezes.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
As of 255 PM Sunday...The pattern for much of the upcoming week will feature typical summer heat and humidity along with primarily diurnally driven showers and storms. Monday the coverage of these showers and storms should be less than what occurred over the weekend and should form mainly in vicinity of the sea breeze boundaries in the afternoon. Storms should remain sub severe with MUCAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg and very weak shear. Some locally heavy rains will be possible as storm movements should remain slow. Highs again will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week.
Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon through mid week.

A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees each afternoon through mid week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Mon/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...The consensus of guidance is for mainly VFR conditions with light southerly winds through Mon outside of scattered afternoon to early evening showers and thunderstorms.
Some MVFR ceilings could briefly form over the northern coastal plain early Mon morning thus have forecast this at PGV 11-14Z.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...Good boating conditions outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Mon.
Winds are currently SW at 10-15 kts, and will persist through Mon. Seas will remain 2-3 ft. Thunderstorms will have locally higher winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters late week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.