Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 9:43 AM

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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 1030 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024
Rest of today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late. Tonight - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1030 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure restrengthens offshore today, with another cold front crossing into the region Thursday. High pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late week and into the weekend with another front Sunday night or Monday.

FXUS62 KMHX 261430 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1030 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure restrengthens offshore today, with another cold front crossing into the region Thursday. High pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late week and into the weekend with another front approaching late Sunday.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 1030 AM Wed...Big story is still the heat today, with highs in the mid/upr 90s interior, with heat indices between 100-105 for several hours this afternoon. In addition to the heat, have added an iso (20%) thunder mention for wrn zones, as some indication enough moisture is available to spark off a storm or two late in the day into early this evening. No other changes to ongoing fcst.

Prev disc
As of 640 AM Wed
Key message for today:

It will be hot and humid with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s inland.

High pressure will extend from the Atlantic into the Carolinas today producing a southerly flow of hot and humid air across the area. Subsidence is again expected to preclude convective development today though an isolated late day sea breeze thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out. The FV3 and HRRR CAM's were the most aggressive in developing diurnal convection while most other models were devoid of precipitation. Thus will continue to keep mention out of the forecast but will monitor trends in observations and models with inclusion possible in subsequent forecast updates contingent on trends the near term.

The big story today will be the heat and humidity. Southerly flow and strong heating will produce highs in the mid to upper 90s inland. Currently dewpoints are in the 70s but convective mixing during peak heating is expected to mix dewpoints down into the upper 60s resulting in max Heat Index values of 100-104 degrees which is just below Advisory Criteria. Thus will hold off issuing a Heat Advisory. Nonetheless, it still will be hot and humid and people should take precautions today when outdoors to protect against the heat.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 305 AM Wed...Moisture will begin streaming into eastern NC late tonight ahead of an approaching weak cold front. This will result in a very low chance for a shower or thunderstorm from the northern Outer Banks to the northern coastal plain after midnight. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and warm temps. Could see areas of low stratus clouds late. Low level mixing should be sufficient to preclude fog as the gradient increases ahead of the approaching front.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM Wed...Heat and humidity continue through this weekend with high pressure ridging into the area. Heat related impacts will be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with the most oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front will bring likely chances for rain and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Then more scattered diurnal activity is expected Friday through Sunday, with better chances arriving late Sunday and into Monday as another front moves in.

Thursday and Friday...Another cold front will move into the region on Thursday, with a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected (60-70% chance) from the afternoon into the evening hours. With these storms there will be a risk of some isolated severe weather, mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts and large hail due to favorable instability parameters (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPEs), and at least modest deep layer shear (~20 kts). There remains some uncertainty related to the strength of wind shear in the area, and a greater severe risk may materialize if shear is stronger.

Precip chances will continue Thursday night as the front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday morning. Behind this front a marginally cooler/drier airmass will try to build in but will not be very successful, and humid conditions will persist Friday. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible Friday afternoon with the highest chances over the coastal plain.

Another threat for Thursday will be oppressive heat and humidity, especially across the southern half of the forecast area where temps will reach the mid 90s with very high humidity levels (dewpoints mid to upper 70s), which will create heat indices 105-110 for a few hours in the afternoon before storms move through. Farther north highs will be limited by clouds and precip from the approaching front, with highs mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching 100 to 105. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Friday behind the front, but with humidity sticking around, heat indices will again top 100 degrees and could be as high as 105 degrees.

Saturday through Tuesday...Heat and humidity will increase again this weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. There will be the potential for excessive heat Saturday and Sunday as high temps soar into the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along the coast, which will lead to heat indices reaching 105 to 110 degrees both days.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday and Sunday, with increasing rain chances coming late Sunday and into Monday as another cold front moves through the region. Behind this front early next week the heat and humidity looks to break finally with near normal conditions expected.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 640 AM Wed...With high pressure in control, we are looking at mainly a VFR TAF again through tonight. However, moist low levels and radiational cooling will lead to patchy fog and areas of low stratus clouds which will result in MVFR to IFR conditions in the 8-12Z time frames early this morning and again early Thursday morning, though fog chances tonight will be minimal due to sufficient low level mixing. Southerly winds will gust to around 20 kt late this afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Any fog and/or stratus will rapidly dissipate after 13Z.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...There will be potential for sub-VFR conditions Thursday afternoon through Thursday night as a cold front moves through the area and brings scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could have strong winds and large hail. Convective activity will then become more scattered and daytime focused Friday and Saturday, with some periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. Another cold front will arrive late Sunday and bring an increased chance of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1030 AM Wed...Have issued short duration SCA for northern sounds/rivers/coastal waters north of Hatteras, as tightened gradient in sswrly flow will bring 25-28 kt gusts, esp for favored areas where funneling occurs (Croatan Sound/Oregon Inlet/Alligator River) in this wind regime in the summer. Winds ramp up after 6 pm and decrease back below SCA after 2 am.

Prev disc
As of 640 AM Wed
Winds and seas will be increasing later today and tonight as the gradient increases ahead of a weak cold front approaching the waters. S winds around 10 kt this morning will become SW this afternoon and increase to 10-15 kt and 15-20 kt tonight. There will be occasional gusts to 25 kt this evening. The wave models are in a good agreement that seas will continue 2-3 ft today and increase to 3-4 ft tonight. With conditions now expected to remain below advisory criteria will hold off on issuing a SCA.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Decent boating conditions expected through the weekend with high pressure over the area aside from Thursday when a cold front moves through.

Winds will be SW 5-15 kts ahead of the front Thursday morning.
As the front crosses the waters later Thursday winds will likely become variable as convective outflow boundaries crisscross the area. Eventually light N/NE will develop Thursday night behind the front, and then become easterly at 5-10 kts Friday. Winds will then turn to the SE at 10-15 kts Saturday, and will increase to SSW 10-20 kts Sunday ahead of another front. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-135-150-152-230-231.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Wed -- 12:29 AM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:04 PM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:27 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Spooner Creek
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Wed -- 01:23 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:58 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

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