NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 920 AM Sunday...Key messages for today: 1) Not as hot as Friday and Saturday but it still will be very warm and humid.

2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through early this evening. The main threat will be locally heavy rains though an isolated damaging wind gust can't be ruled out.

The atmosphere will be primed today for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as a decaying frontal boundary sags south into NC. Ahead of this front, a tropical like airmass prevails with PW values >2". MUCAPES are forecast to be around 2500 J/kg which should support some vigorous updrafts. The only missing ingredient will be shear which is non existent. This means that the initial convection will be very pulsy with storms developing and decaying rather quickly. However, cell mergers will lead to more sustained and persistent multi-cell clusters which will increase the flood threat. Cold pools may also be strong enough for an isolated microburst or two as water loaded downdrafts occur in the strongest and most persistent convection.

The storms will initiate on local sea breeze/sound breeze/river breeze and differential heating boundaries around 17Z. The greatest coverage of storms should be along the inland moving sea breeze and areas north of the Pamlico River. Thus have expanded the area of likely PoPs a little further east across the northern Outer Banks and south along and east of Highway 17 where the sea breeze is expected to be located during peak heating. The steering flow is very weak thus storms are expected to be slow and erratic moving. Stronger storms will occur in cell mergers and interacting outflows where very rains are likely to occur leading to a localized flash flood threat. The CAMs are indicating the potential for rainfall amounts of 3-5" in the most persistent downpours.

Temps today are forecast to be slightly cooler than yesterday reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s with the highest Heat Index values topping out in the low 100s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and PoPS drastically decrease as a result. Coastal regions and areas offshore could see showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder tonight from the coastal trough just offshore. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland, upper 70s for beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week.
Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon through mid week.

A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees each afternoon through mid week.

AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Mon/...
As of 700 AM Sunday...Low ceilings didn't materialize this morning despite ample moisture. leaving us with generally VFR conditions outside of OAJ which is bouncing between MVFR/IFR vis this morning. Conditions should improve gradually this morning with the help of daytime heating. Rinse and repeat forecast today with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing in an otherwise VFR regime. Winds remain light through the day at around 5 kt, although some spotty gusts to 15 kt are possible immediately behind the seabreeze. Tonight brings another chance for fog development along and west of hwy 17, and low ceilings as we have ample low level moisture.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sunday... Winds are currently SW'rly persisting at 10-15 kts, and will continue to do so through this afternoon.
Seas are currently 2 to 4 ft, becoming 2 to 3 feet as we move further into this morning. The one caveat to this otherwise pleasant boating conditions will be the constant threat for isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with locally higher winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters late week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.