Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Tonight - Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - North wind 10 to 15 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - Southeast wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 959 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
weak to moderate south to southeast winds are expected tonight with winds increasing to moderate to strong tomorrow and tomorrow night with a medium chance of small craft advisory conditions. Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist Monday through early Wednesday morning. Small craft advisory conditions may occur at times each afternoon, generally over the southern bays and waters. Onshore flow then weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming weak to moderate Thursday through Friday.

FXUS64 KCRP 020514 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chances for rain overnight

Despite a clean radar at this time, there is a low to medium chance for redevelopment across the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads as the atmosphere continues to recover with daytime heating and their convective temperatures is reached. As for possible triggers, an outflow boundary moving towards the coast from the Gulf from this mornings storms could interact with the 4,000- 4,500 J/kg of CAPE to initiate thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm does develop, there is a Slight Risk of the storm becoming severe as per SPC Convective Outlook. After drying out this evening, there is another low chance for rain, this time the focus being across the Brush Country and Coastal Plains. Hi-res models are showing a decaying MCS from West Texas this evening pushing southeastward into the Brush Country around La Salle and pushing toward the coast.
Therefore, went with a 15-30% chance for measurable precipitation after midnight from the Brush Country to the Coastal Bend.

We will begin to dry out tomorrow and tomorrow night as the miserable heat returns to the forecast. Daytime highs tomorrow are expected to range from the lower 90s along the coast to near 102 degrees across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains with heat indices ranging from 103-109 degrees across the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads to 107-114 degrees from the southern Coastal Bend through the Coastal Plains and into the Brush Country.
Therefore, there is a medium to high chance that a heat advisory will be needed for tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately, overnight temperatures will remain mild with temperatures only expected to drop into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Please continue to practice heat safety and remain hydrated if working or spending time outdoors.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal flooding likely with water levels approaching the dunes early Wednesday and Thursday mornings

- Low to medium chance of major to extreme heat-related impacts daily Monday through Thursday

A mid-upper level ridge will be in place Monday, keeping conditions very warm. However, a shortwave will push through Monday night, bringing a low chance of showers and storms over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country where a cluster of storms over northeast Mexico has a low chance of persisting into the aforementioned area.

Heading through the middle of next week, the mid-level flow changes quite a bit with a closed low over the eastern Pacific deepening and moving northward into southern California near the end of the work week. This will cause a great weakness in the flow aloft with primarily ridging impacts in place in terms of rain-free and hot conditions. There is a low to medium (30-40%) chance of heat index values at least 110 Monday through Thursday. High temperatures ranging from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 over the Brush Country.

Last but not least, moderate to strong southeasterly flow in combination of the new moon astronomical high tide poses a high risk of minor coastal flooding along the Middle Texas Coast early Wednesday morning and early Thursday morning.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR CIGs have been slow to develop, but are still expected by 08Z across most of S TX. The main concern continues to be whether storms that have developed around the Big Bend area and NE Mexico, hold together long enough to reach S TX overnight. Have included mention of thunderstorms for LRD and COT beginning after 06Z and for the ALI, CRP and VCT TAF sites around 10Z or later.
Confidence is medium (25-40%) that storms will reach COT and lower (10-20%) across the remainder of S TX. SPC now has a marginal risk of severe storms across the northern half of S TX. By mid morning Sunday, conditions will improve to VFR levels once again.

MARINE
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Weak to moderate south to southeast winds are expected tonight with winds increasing to moderate to strong tomorrow and tomorrow night with a medium chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist Monday through early Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur at times each afternoon, generally over the southern bays and waters.
Onshore flow then weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming weak to moderate Thursday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 81 94 81 94 / 30 20 0 0 Victoria 77 94 79 93 / 10 20 0 0 Laredo 81 102 80 104 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 79 98 78 99 / 30 10 0 0 Rockport 82 91 83 91 / 20 10 0 0 Cotulla 80 102 79 104 / 40 0 0 10 Kingsville 80 95 80 96 / 20 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 92 83 91 / 20 20 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.

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