Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:19 AM   Moonset 3:28 PM

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FXUS64 KSHV 021715 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak upper ridging is currently overhead of the Ark-La-Tex this morning as dense overcast is holding steady through the region.
Area ASOS/AWOS sites have been reporting between 2-3 deg F lower than the advertised forecast, and given the influence of the morning coverage, have elected to lower afternoon maxT's a few degrees. The main question for today, once again, is the convective evolution this afternoon/evening.

Hi-res guidance this morning, and mesoanalysis suggests a progressive northward moisture surge through the late morning and afternoon that would support convective initiation along outflow response, mainly across Louisiana and Texas. Storm location and coverage confidence is low at this time given the back and forth presentation in the CAMs. That being said, storm maturity will remain to be seen, but for now, a Marginal risk is present across portions of Deep East Texas. This will need to be closely monitored through the day.

RK

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Quiet Sunday morning going with fair skies north of I-20 and anvil cirrus over the south from distant central TX thunderstorms.
Air temperatures are coolish in the wake of last evening's heavy rainfall with mostly mid to upper 60s and a few sites around 70 degrees. Many sites remain calm with patchy fog in a 1 to 3 mile restriction at the worst over NE TX, where skies have mostly clear longest. Radar is likewise quiet, but a few small showers are sliding east across Toledo Bend this hour. We will likely see a batch of morning low clouds for several hours.

The short term models all agree we will see a push from the SW today across east TX and our Parishes south of I-20. The boundary laid down recently separates higher 70 dew points that will spread inland with heating. Our KSHV 88D VAD wind profiler is showing SW flow 20-30KT up to near 8kft, before swinging around much lighter NE flow. So this sea breeze look will lift inland late this morning and through this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has a Marginal Risk up to Tyler and over to about Alexandria for their day 1 outlook. This will wind down with the setting sun, but coverage up into NE TX near Texarkana will make a run for Ruston and Monroe with just a bit more QPF.

Just quick passing rains today and nothing really widespread heavy. Skies will thin out again this evening with morning lows looking a little warmer with more lower 70s around. The GFS is looking at another nocturnal push down the OK/TX Red River valley, that will edge into our I-30 corridor before daybreak on Monday.
This activity will continue eastward over S AR before falling apart mid to late morning. The NAM is very similar early, but with nothing much in the heat of the day, while the GFS and ECMWF continue with TX/LA afternoon coverage until sunset.

Overall, less organizational push compared to what has been the case for us lately in the parading MCSs. The WPC has sparse small change amounts with tenths and quarters of an inch here and there.
There are a few tiny areas with a half to maybe inch in a few bullseyes, bringing up a Marginal Risk matching up closely with the SPC outlook. Meanwhile, both today and tomorrow will see afternoon highs very close to average for early June in the upper 80s. /24/

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As we continue into the new work week things finally appear to see less rain storms affecting our forecasts and just more June sunshine with more lower 90s spreading around with plenty of humidity. And we can expect the morning lows to continue warming midweek with less nocturnal convective activity and just some diurnal coverage. The SPC has another Marginal Risk for Monday's nocturnal push and then we are general for Tuesday into Wednesday.
Nothing yet in the days 4-8 with low confidence at this time. The medium range models look at one last weak push perhaps early on Wednesday for at least our I-30 corridor. Then we wait with just isolated activity for Thursday to ramp up again on Friday with a weak frontal passage. A 1017mb high pressure area will push into the middle MS River Valley and that appears to have a nice dry weekend in store for us next attempt along with a little less humidity and highs back to upper 80s in many cases. /24/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Very difficult 18z TAF package as upstream convection is not a given to move into our airspace this evening into the overnight hours despite the trend lately of upstream convection holding together. Starting the package with borderline MVFR/low VFR ceilings that will eventually become low VFR areawide. While we will likely see isolated to scattered afternoon convection today across NE TX into N LA, held off on mentioning VCTS until 00z and continued that into midnight as the timing of convection is the biggest discrepancies with the lastest model guidance. Did bring back MVFR/IFR ceilings late tonight towards sunrise Monday morning across most terminals without any VCTS but even that is not a given based on a variety of CAMS which suggest otherwise.

13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 88 74 91 76 / 20 20 20 10 MLU 88 71 90 73 / 20 10 20 10 DEQ 88 69 87 70 / 10 20 40 20 TXK 89 72 90 72 / 10 10 30 20 ELD 87 70 89 71 / 10 10 20 10 TYR 87 73 89 74 / 30 20 30 20 GGG 87 73 89 73 / 20 20 30 20 LFK 89 74 89 74 / 30 20 20 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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