Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM   Moonset 6:32 PM

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LEZ144 Expires:202407030215;;328423 Fzus51 Kcle 021954 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 354 pm edt Tue jul 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-030215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 354 pm edt Tue jul 2 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 75 degrees, off cleveland 71 degrees, and off erie 71 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 030733 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid conditions are expected today along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This boundary will then remain in the area on the Fourth of July. Embedded mid level disturbances will interact with this boundary, resulting in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A stronger weather system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio region Friday into Friday night, continuing the threat for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front was located from the western Great Lakes, southwest across the middle Mississippi River Valley, then into the southern Plains. This front will make its way southeast toward our region today. For this morning into early afternoon, we should see a mix of high clouds (spilling in from the west from upstream convection) and scattered cumuliform clouds. Winds will increase from the south and southwest between 10 and 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. This low level flow will bring higher dewpoints into the region. In fact, dewpoints are forecast to peak this afternoon into the lower to mid 70s. This will combine with forecast highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. As a result, heat indicies will range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. Where heat indicies are expected to approach 100 or above, a Heat Advisory has been issued, which is mainly along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elsewhere, mid and upper 90s heat indices are expected, and this will be mentioned in the HWO. With the heat and humidity, the airmass will become unstable with moderate instability forecast. This will be occurring in an environment with weak to low end moderate deep layer shear. The big question of the day will be how showers and thunderstorms will be triggered. Well, perusing the various CAMs and models, it appears that either an outflow boundary/MCV will rotate east into our area by late afternoon, or perhaps a low level prefrontal trof in advance of the cold front. This forcing should be enough to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in an uncapped sounding regime. There is some uncertainty on how fast convective initiation will start, ranging from 2 pm to 5 pm or later. As a result, have taken a blended/broad brush approach for this afternoon. We will likely see multicellular clusters or small bowing segments of convection. With pwats 2+ inches, pcpn loading in the strongest updrafts will likely lead to some strong to damaging winds as the the cores descend back to the surface. In addition, there should be some DCAPE values between 500 and 900 negative J/kg for wet microburst potential. Poor mid level lapse rates and overall thin CAPE soundings indicate that large hail is not a big concern. Heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to localized flooding. Will mention the strong to damaging winds and localized flooding in the HWO. As we head into tonight, the cold front will eventually move into our northern CWFA where it will become quasi-stationary. Ongoing convection will undergo a weakening trend as instability wanes some and overall forcing weakens. It will be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
Quasi-frontal boundary will remain across our northern forecast area on Thursday. In a very moist airmass (pwats still 2+ inches), a mid level disturbance (perhaps convectively induced)
is forecast to ripple west to east across our region during the day. This feature will couple with a modest 850 mb low level jet to result in the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across our southern two thirds CWFA. With marginal low end moderate instability, can not rule out isolated strong to severe convection. Strong to damaging winds will continue to be the main concern. In addition, heavy rainfall will still be a concern as well, which may result in localized flooding. Will mention these threats in the HWO. Clouds and the threat for additional pcpn will keep highs in the lower to mid 80s. So a little cooler but still humid.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weather will be unsettled to start the period as a cluster of showers and thunderstorms forming under a disturbed westerly mid level flow is likely to be affecting much of the area on Thursday night. Threat for thunderstorms continues through Friday when a cold front trailing Canadian low pressure pushes through from the west. Strong to severe storms and heavy rain cannot be ruled out from an environment containing ample moisture, instability, and winds aloft.

For Saturday and Sunday, high pressure is expected to provide tranquil weather. The threat for showers and storms returns Monday and Tuesday as moisture and lift increase ahead of an upper trough and weak surface boundary.

Temperatures should remain relatively consistent and close to normal, with highs generally in the 80s each day, and lows mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected overnight as a mixture of a FEW-SCT cumliform clouds mix with high level convective debris blow off from storms upstream in the middle Mississippi River Valley.
Southerly winds will increase some overnight to 10 to 12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible by 12Z. There will be a brief period of LLWS at KDAY/KILN/KCVG/KLUK where south/southwest winds of 40 knots at 2000 feet will be possible by a transient low level jet.

For today, LLWS threat will end around 12Z. Otherwise, focus will be on the potential for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will approach our region from the northwest late in the day. It will become hot and humid ahead of this front, leading to moderate instability. Convection allowing models show varying convective initiation timing and coverage, so a blended approach will have to be used at this time. It appears that showers/storms will become induced by either a remnant outflow boundary/mid level weak disturbance or subtle prefrontal trof convergence. Have showers/storms developing in the 18Z to 00Z time frame. Given very moist airmass, MVFR ceilings and IFR or less visibilities will be possible in the stronger storms. For now, will put some MVFR visibilities in the terminals with predominant showers with a VCTS/CB until timing can be better pinpointed. Gusty south/southwest winds between 20 and 25 knots will continue into the afternoon, then diminish between 22Z and 00Z.

For tonight, showers/storms should gradually decrease in coverage overnight as the cold front pushing into our northern forecast area weakens and becomes more diffuse. The recent rainfall, if it comes to pass, may help to develop some MVFR ceilings and visibilities late tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Thursday morning.
Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ053>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

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