Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harbor Beach, MI
July 3, 2024 5:19 AM EDT (09:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 9:13 PM Moonrise 2:18 AM Moonset 6:46 PM |
LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 402 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 030728 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 328 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Chance of a few light showers early this across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb region. An isolated non-severe thunderstorm is also possible this morning.
- Warm and humid on Wednesday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms, now shifting over the remainder of the area tied to frontal passage. An isolated strong storm can't be completey ruled out during the afternoon, capable of producing strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.
- Typical heat and humidity for the 4th of July holiday. Rain chances looking to hold just south of the state border.
- Wider spread showers and embedded thunderstorms possible Friday.
DISCUSSION
SE MI is residing within the warm sector of a low pressure lifting into the northern Great Lakes this morning which has led to dewpoints creeping back into the 60s. This moisture advection continues through the afternoon as the theta-e plume draped along the Mississippi is partially drawn into the region pushing Td's near or just above 70F, particularly south of M-59. Rain chances initially are confined to the Saginaw Valley-Thumb area as decaying convective remnants currently over northern IL/southern Lake Mi lift northeast early this morning. An additional window for a couple (thunder)showers comes late morning-early afternoon for these areas as the "cold" frontal boundary starts to sag into southern lower MI.
System relative flow has a large parallel component to the SW-NE oriented front greatly reducing low level convergence along it with the end result expected to be a fairly sparse coverage of widely scattered showers. Earlier timing also puts an upper bound on potential CAPE available (likely around 500 J/kg at best) keeping any thunder more isolated in nature. These chances shift south and east through the rest of the afternoon, reaching the Detroit Metro area after ~19Z. Even with the later/slightly more favorable timing, CAMs continue to struggle to generate much in the way of convection in advance of the boundary likely owing to ample cloud cover that will be in place reducing insolation and subsequent greater instability. Should frequent/large enough breaks in this cloud occur however, it wouldn't take long to fully realize the ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE potential that the area is residing beneath. There is just enough bulk shear (25-30kts) that could support an isolated stronger cell with damaging wind gusts being the potential hazard (again assuming we see enough breaks to get initiation). Overall chances of this are low however with better potential focused to our east as noted in the new Day 1 SPC outlook.
Frontal boundary pushes east of the region late evening, after ~23Z ending any further rain chances. Only marginally cooler air follows this front (850mb temps only fall by 1-3C) with the main impact instead shunted the theta-e plume and associated upper 60-lower 70 dewpoints back into Ohio and Indiana. Short range model solutions still suggest this frontal boundary holds south enough of the state border to keep additional convective development likewise confined south of the CWA as a series of shortwaves ride along it daytime Thursday. This outcome offers lesser cloud cover and more sun pushing highs back into the mid to upper 80s, despite the very modest cooling aloft. Worth noting there is some signal for diffuse ripples of vorticity embedded within the upper jet that is progged to be directly over lower MI to spark a brief isolated showers late afternoon-evening. That said, low confidence in this scenario so have opted to keep dry forecast (sub 15% PoPs) running in this update.
Active pattern doesn't relent for the late week period as another surface low develops over the north-central Plains before lifting towards the Straits Friday into Saturday. Respectable moisture transport accompanies this system as it wraps in lingering Gulf moisture from the mid-Mississippi pushing PW values over 1.5" and surface dewpoints near 70f again. Occluding front looks to lift through SE MI centered around the afternoon hours, which in combination with aforementioned moisture-rich environment, should widespread coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms.
MARINE
A cold front will move over the Great Lakes this morning and afternoon which will veer wind direction to the west-southwest by the afternoon. There will be a window between 4AM-4PM today where gust potential will near 25 knots across the Saginaw Bay with the southwest flow, but will preclude the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory as model soundings exhibit a stable profile, lowering confidence of 25 knot gust potential for any 3+ hour window. There will be a low chance for a shower or storm along the front. High pressure will fill back in tomorrow, bringing light winds through the day.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1232 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
AVIATION...
Extensive mid level cloud will mark the overnight period, as Southeast Michigan maintains position downstream of an area of convection migrating through the lake Michigan corridor. Expectation remains for this activity to outpace the trailing frontal boundary, leaving simply pockets of light showers with a gradual decline in cloud base heading into the late morning period. Potential for a chaotic coverage of showers to emerge with daytime heating as a weak frontal passage attempts to engage a gradually moistening and destabilizing environment. This occurs within some reduction in cloud base, potential resulting a brief period of MVFR to lower VFR.
An isolated thunderstorm occurrence remains plausible in this environment, but unworthy of a defined mention at this stage. There remains the low likelihood that a deeper shower or storm may develop during the early afternoon hours across the Detroit airspace - especially if any prolonged breaks in the cloud cover arise. A strengthening wind off the surface maintains a period of low level wind shear through mid morning. Increasing boundary layer depth with time then turns this higher wind magnitude into gusty southwest conditions through the remainder of the day.
For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a low chance for a thunderstorm as a front washes through this afternoon.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning, moderate this afternoon.
* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 328 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Chance of a few light showers early this across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb region. An isolated non-severe thunderstorm is also possible this morning.
- Warm and humid on Wednesday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms, now shifting over the remainder of the area tied to frontal passage. An isolated strong storm can't be completey ruled out during the afternoon, capable of producing strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.
- Typical heat and humidity for the 4th of July holiday. Rain chances looking to hold just south of the state border.
- Wider spread showers and embedded thunderstorms possible Friday.
DISCUSSION
SE MI is residing within the warm sector of a low pressure lifting into the northern Great Lakes this morning which has led to dewpoints creeping back into the 60s. This moisture advection continues through the afternoon as the theta-e plume draped along the Mississippi is partially drawn into the region pushing Td's near or just above 70F, particularly south of M-59. Rain chances initially are confined to the Saginaw Valley-Thumb area as decaying convective remnants currently over northern IL/southern Lake Mi lift northeast early this morning. An additional window for a couple (thunder)showers comes late morning-early afternoon for these areas as the "cold" frontal boundary starts to sag into southern lower MI.
System relative flow has a large parallel component to the SW-NE oriented front greatly reducing low level convergence along it with the end result expected to be a fairly sparse coverage of widely scattered showers. Earlier timing also puts an upper bound on potential CAPE available (likely around 500 J/kg at best) keeping any thunder more isolated in nature. These chances shift south and east through the rest of the afternoon, reaching the Detroit Metro area after ~19Z. Even with the later/slightly more favorable timing, CAMs continue to struggle to generate much in the way of convection in advance of the boundary likely owing to ample cloud cover that will be in place reducing insolation and subsequent greater instability. Should frequent/large enough breaks in this cloud occur however, it wouldn't take long to fully realize the ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE potential that the area is residing beneath. There is just enough bulk shear (25-30kts) that could support an isolated stronger cell with damaging wind gusts being the potential hazard (again assuming we see enough breaks to get initiation). Overall chances of this are low however with better potential focused to our east as noted in the new Day 1 SPC outlook.
Frontal boundary pushes east of the region late evening, after ~23Z ending any further rain chances. Only marginally cooler air follows this front (850mb temps only fall by 1-3C) with the main impact instead shunted the theta-e plume and associated upper 60-lower 70 dewpoints back into Ohio and Indiana. Short range model solutions still suggest this frontal boundary holds south enough of the state border to keep additional convective development likewise confined south of the CWA as a series of shortwaves ride along it daytime Thursday. This outcome offers lesser cloud cover and more sun pushing highs back into the mid to upper 80s, despite the very modest cooling aloft. Worth noting there is some signal for diffuse ripples of vorticity embedded within the upper jet that is progged to be directly over lower MI to spark a brief isolated showers late afternoon-evening. That said, low confidence in this scenario so have opted to keep dry forecast (sub 15% PoPs) running in this update.
Active pattern doesn't relent for the late week period as another surface low develops over the north-central Plains before lifting towards the Straits Friday into Saturday. Respectable moisture transport accompanies this system as it wraps in lingering Gulf moisture from the mid-Mississippi pushing PW values over 1.5" and surface dewpoints near 70f again. Occluding front looks to lift through SE MI centered around the afternoon hours, which in combination with aforementioned moisture-rich environment, should widespread coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms.
MARINE
A cold front will move over the Great Lakes this morning and afternoon which will veer wind direction to the west-southwest by the afternoon. There will be a window between 4AM-4PM today where gust potential will near 25 knots across the Saginaw Bay with the southwest flow, but will preclude the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory as model soundings exhibit a stable profile, lowering confidence of 25 knot gust potential for any 3+ hour window. There will be a low chance for a shower or storm along the front. High pressure will fill back in tomorrow, bringing light winds through the day.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1232 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
AVIATION...
Extensive mid level cloud will mark the overnight period, as Southeast Michigan maintains position downstream of an area of convection migrating through the lake Michigan corridor. Expectation remains for this activity to outpace the trailing frontal boundary, leaving simply pockets of light showers with a gradual decline in cloud base heading into the late morning period. Potential for a chaotic coverage of showers to emerge with daytime heating as a weak frontal passage attempts to engage a gradually moistening and destabilizing environment. This occurs within some reduction in cloud base, potential resulting a brief period of MVFR to lower VFR.
An isolated thunderstorm occurrence remains plausible in this environment, but unworthy of a defined mention at this stage. There remains the low likelihood that a deeper shower or storm may develop during the early afternoon hours across the Detroit airspace - especially if any prolonged breaks in the cloud cover arise. A strengthening wind off the surface maintains a period of low level wind shear through mid morning. Increasing boundary layer depth with time then turns this higher wind magnitude into gusty southwest conditions through the remainder of the day.
For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a low chance for a thunderstorm as a front washes through this afternoon.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning, moderate this afternoon.
* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KP58
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KP58
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KP58
Wind History graph: P58
(wind in knots)
Detroit, MI,
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