Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Copper Harbor, MI
July 3, 2024 4:29 PM EDT (20:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 9:47 PM Moonrise 2:22 AM Moonset 7:28 PM |
LSZ244 /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-240625t0845z/ 407 Am Edt Tue Jun 25 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Eagle river to manitou island mi - . Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Manitou island to point isabelle mi - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4637 8665 4643 8677 4640 8690 4648 8702 4644 8724 4649 8742 4663 8755 4742 8733 4735 8601 time - .mot - .loc 0807z 264deg 42kt 4735 8701 4661 8738
the affected areas were - . Eagle river to manitou island mi - . Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Manitou island to point isabelle mi - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4637 8665 4643 8677 4640 8690 4648 8702 4644 8724 4649 8742 4663 8755 4742 8733 4735 8601 time - .mot - .loc 0807z 264deg 42kt 4735 8701 4661 8738
LSZ200
No data
No data
FXUS63 KMQT 031921 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 321 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Breezy westerly winds through the early evening with gusts up to 20mph common area-wide, and higher gusts to 30-35mph possible across the Keweenaw.
- Pop-up showers/thunderstorms (20-30% chance) will be possible into the evening.
- Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior western Upper Michigan on Independence Day.
- Widespread moderate rain expected late Thursday night into Friday evening. Some thunder possible.
- While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return for Sunday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
RAP analysis shows mainly zonal flow setting up over the area this afternoon as a closed low continues to move through northern Ontario, towards Hudson Bay. Over the Great Lakes, skies have been able to turn sunny with large-scale subsidence indicated in water vapor imagery. However, with diurnal mixing, plenty of agitated cumulus has popped off over the UP. This remains fairly well capped over the west, but cooler cloud tops are apparent in the eastern UP.
This hints at a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and storms across the central and eastern UP as we head through the late afternoon and evening hours. Given only a few hundred j/kg of CAPE over the area, no severe weather is expected. Though any rain totals should be light for the most part, areas where multiple storms can move through could see QPF in excess of a quarter inch. This is most likely in Luce county, where the highest cloud tops are already developing (perhaps some lake breeze convergence?).
Otherwise, temperatures are turning much warmer than yesterday, with most of the area already well into the 70s and lower 80s. The exception is in the eastern UP, where areas along Lake Michigan continue to struggle to get out of the 60s courtesy of onshore flow.
Meanwhile, winds remain on the breezy side, with gusts up to 20mph common across the western half of the UP. Higher gusts in excess of 30mph continue to be observed at times across the Keweenaw. Winds should fall back as we head into the evening and the boundary layer decouples.
Tonight, ridging will continue to strengthen over the forecast area, with any lingering convection over the eastern UP wrapping up by midnight. Outside of that, though, it will be a dry night with overnight lows generally in the 50s, low 60s to the south.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
High pressure centered over Lake Superior will provide a pleasant Independence Day for most of the U.P. into the afternoon hours. By later afternoon weak shortwave moving east from main upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley may help trigger a shra or tsra near the WI border. Most will remain dry through the day. Light onshore flow near Lake Superior will keep temperatures a little cooler than today but inland temperatures will once again climb to around 80. Main upper trough and surface low will move from Wisconsin Thursday night to northern lower Michigan by Friday evening. Shower and isolated thunder chances will increase significantly across the west by late evening with rain chances becoming likely across the remainder of the U.P. during the overnight. On and off rain and isolated thunder will continue through much of the day on Friday. Cool northeast winds off Lake Superior will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 near Lake Superior with mid 60s inland. Winds will be more easterly over the eastern U.P. so temps will climb into the lower 70s there. Most of the U.P. with the exception of the Keweenaw will see between 0.50- 0.75 inches of rain with locally higher amounts especially along the pivot point of the low track and where any isolated thunder occurs.
Precip amounts will be much lighter across the Keweenaw.
High pressure and clearing skies will move in Saturday morning leading to a pleasant seasonable summer day.
The next quick moving disturbance will move in from the west Sunday afternoon with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing through the day and lasting into Monday.
High pressure builds back in by Tuesday afternoon and will persist through the middle of next week with seasonable summery weather continuing.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR prevails through the forecast period, with just some diurnal cumulus developing this afternoon. There is a chance for an afternoon shower and even a rumble of thunder, but confidence in timing and location of any one thunderstorm is too low to include in the TAF. Our best chances would be around SAW. Otherwise, the main concern for the forecast period continues to be gusty westerly winds, with gusts up to 30kts at CMX this afternoon, and up to 20-25 kts at IWD and SAW. Gusts fall back this evening, then winds stay below 10kts the rest of the forecast period.
MARINE
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Westerly winds that have been a little gusty around the Keweenaw and Isle Royale will diminish quickly this evening. Winds will then remain below 20 kts into Friday morning. Low pressure moving across WI into northern lower Michigan on Friday will allow northeasterly winds to increase to perhaps as high as 25 knots over the eastern Lake Friday afternoon and early evening before the low moves off to the east later Friday night. Southerly winds ahead of the next front moving across the Lake on Sunday may briefly approach 20 knots but all and all a fairly quiet stretch of marine winds is expected over the weekend into the middle of next week.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 321 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Breezy westerly winds through the early evening with gusts up to 20mph common area-wide, and higher gusts to 30-35mph possible across the Keweenaw.
- Pop-up showers/thunderstorms (20-30% chance) will be possible into the evening.
- Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior western Upper Michigan on Independence Day.
- Widespread moderate rain expected late Thursday night into Friday evening. Some thunder possible.
- While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return for Sunday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
RAP analysis shows mainly zonal flow setting up over the area this afternoon as a closed low continues to move through northern Ontario, towards Hudson Bay. Over the Great Lakes, skies have been able to turn sunny with large-scale subsidence indicated in water vapor imagery. However, with diurnal mixing, plenty of agitated cumulus has popped off over the UP. This remains fairly well capped over the west, but cooler cloud tops are apparent in the eastern UP.
This hints at a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and storms across the central and eastern UP as we head through the late afternoon and evening hours. Given only a few hundred j/kg of CAPE over the area, no severe weather is expected. Though any rain totals should be light for the most part, areas where multiple storms can move through could see QPF in excess of a quarter inch. This is most likely in Luce county, where the highest cloud tops are already developing (perhaps some lake breeze convergence?).
Otherwise, temperatures are turning much warmer than yesterday, with most of the area already well into the 70s and lower 80s. The exception is in the eastern UP, where areas along Lake Michigan continue to struggle to get out of the 60s courtesy of onshore flow.
Meanwhile, winds remain on the breezy side, with gusts up to 20mph common across the western half of the UP. Higher gusts in excess of 30mph continue to be observed at times across the Keweenaw. Winds should fall back as we head into the evening and the boundary layer decouples.
Tonight, ridging will continue to strengthen over the forecast area, with any lingering convection over the eastern UP wrapping up by midnight. Outside of that, though, it will be a dry night with overnight lows generally in the 50s, low 60s to the south.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
High pressure centered over Lake Superior will provide a pleasant Independence Day for most of the U.P. into the afternoon hours. By later afternoon weak shortwave moving east from main upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley may help trigger a shra or tsra near the WI border. Most will remain dry through the day. Light onshore flow near Lake Superior will keep temperatures a little cooler than today but inland temperatures will once again climb to around 80. Main upper trough and surface low will move from Wisconsin Thursday night to northern lower Michigan by Friday evening. Shower and isolated thunder chances will increase significantly across the west by late evening with rain chances becoming likely across the remainder of the U.P. during the overnight. On and off rain and isolated thunder will continue through much of the day on Friday. Cool northeast winds off Lake Superior will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 near Lake Superior with mid 60s inland. Winds will be more easterly over the eastern U.P. so temps will climb into the lower 70s there. Most of the U.P. with the exception of the Keweenaw will see between 0.50- 0.75 inches of rain with locally higher amounts especially along the pivot point of the low track and where any isolated thunder occurs.
Precip amounts will be much lighter across the Keweenaw.
High pressure and clearing skies will move in Saturday morning leading to a pleasant seasonable summer day.
The next quick moving disturbance will move in from the west Sunday afternoon with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing through the day and lasting into Monday.
High pressure builds back in by Tuesday afternoon and will persist through the middle of next week with seasonable summery weather continuing.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR prevails through the forecast period, with just some diurnal cumulus developing this afternoon. There is a chance for an afternoon shower and even a rumble of thunder, but confidence in timing and location of any one thunderstorm is too low to include in the TAF. Our best chances would be around SAW. Otherwise, the main concern for the forecast period continues to be gusty westerly winds, with gusts up to 30kts at CMX this afternoon, and up to 20-25 kts at IWD and SAW. Gusts fall back this evening, then winds stay below 10kts the rest of the forecast period.
MARINE
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Westerly winds that have been a little gusty around the Keweenaw and Isle Royale will diminish quickly this evening. Winds will then remain below 20 kts into Friday morning. Low pressure moving across WI into northern lower Michigan on Friday will allow northeasterly winds to increase to perhaps as high as 25 knots over the eastern Lake Friday afternoon and early evening before the low moves off to the east later Friday night. Southerly winds ahead of the next front moving across the Lake on Sunday may briefly approach 20 knots but all and all a fairly quiet stretch of marine winds is expected over the weekend into the middle of next week.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| KP59 | 3 mi | 38 min | NNW 9.9G | 78°F | 29.68 | 60°F | ||
| GTRM4 - Superior Grand Traverse Bay, MI | 29 mi | 89 min | W 12G | 81°F | 29.71 | |||
| PCLM4 - Portage Canal, MI | 37 mi | 49 min | NNW 5.1G | 70°F | 29.65 | |||
| 45001 - MID SUPERIOR 60NM North Northeast Hancock, MI | 38 mi | 39 min | SW 14G | 47°F | 41°F | 2 ft | 29.71 | 46°F |
| 45023 | 41 mi | 49 min | SW 7.8 | 61°F | 57°F | 1 ft | 29.71 | 57°F |
| 45025 - South Entrance to Keweenaw Waterway, MI | 46 mi | 49 min | W 18 | 73°F | 53°F | 1 ft | 29.71 | 57°F |
| BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI | 48 mi | 49 min | WNW 4.1G | 81°F | 29.68 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KP59
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KP59
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KP59
Wind History graph: P59
(wind in knots)
Marquette, MI,
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