Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 2:00 AM   Moonset 3:28 PM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 138 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
This afternoon - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Showers likely in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - East winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 61 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 021823 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today across a majority of the region. The first half of the week will warmer and mostly quiet but isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Shower chances increase midweek as the next system approaches the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
945 AM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track and only made some minor changes to cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations.

615 AM Update...

For this update, there were some minor changes to PoPs to be within better collaboration of some neighboring offices. The main area of focus western portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Some of the 06z guidance came in with showers lingering there longer than originally forecasted. Some of the updated guidance also maintain showers into far eastern portions of our CWA before fizzling out. It was decided to not increase PoPs further east quite yet as coverage still looks more isolated by then.

330 AM Update...

The quiet conditions will come to an end today as high pressure moves east out of the region and a shortwave trough moves in from the west. Drier conditions will hold on through the morning and early afternoon hours, especially as precipitation struggles to overcome the dry air initially. Eventually, scattered showers will develop by mid-afternoon across CNY and portions of the Northern Tier of PA. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. MLCAPE values will be less than 300 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear is around 20 kts, so strong storms are not expected. NAM guidance has higher instability but given the increasing sky cover through the morning hours, conditions should not become too unstable. Temperatures today will max out in the 70s with a few valley locations near 80. With decreasing heights, increasing cloud cover, and showers moving in, today's forecasted temperatures were lowered below most guidance using a blend of the NBM, NBM tenth percentile, NAM, and Conshort.
As rain moves in, temperatures will also likely begin to cool prior to sunset.

Overnight, thunderstorm chances diminish but showers continue. The Catskills and NEPA will have the best chance for showers, though isolated showers will be possible up into the Southern Tier.
While model soundings do not show much for an inversion tonight, patchy fog will be possible. Low-level moisture will remain present, the ground will be wet, and winds will be light which all combined should help aid in the development of patchy, valley fog or at least low stratus. Temperatures tonight will remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but weak waves look to kick off some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance are showing more instability compared to today but shear will still be weak. There is some uncertainty where showers will pop up but this forecast favored short-range guidance for PoPs, which is mainly limited to NEPA and far western portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions.
Most of CNY will stay dry and will see mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week as the ridge builds in. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
220 PM Update...

A cooling trend begins Tuesday as a slow-moving upper-level low from Canada slowly marches towards Central NY and NE PA.
Temperatures will decrease from the low- to mid-80s Tuesday to high-70s to low-80s Wednesday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before the aforementioned system swings down into the Great Lakes region, bringing heavier rain showers Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center indicates a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of flash flooding) for Wednesday night, with QPF values up to half an inch of rainfall overnight Wednesday through early Thursday morning. We'll keep monitoring the changes in guidance as we get closer to mid-week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
220 PM Update...

The slow-moving upper-level low spins just north of the region and goes quasi-stationary there through the rest of the long- term period. The cooling trend from mid-week continues into the weekend, with temperatures falling from mid- to high-70s Thursday to the high-60s to low-70s Saturday. It'll be quite the unsettled pattern with chances for rain showers during the entire stretch from Thursday to Saturday, with chances of thunderstorms in the afternoons. Currently, the Weather Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of flash flooding) for Thursday; it wouldn't be surprising if this continued through the rest of the week due to the unsettled pattern. It's difficult to pinpoint how much rainfall we may receive this upcoming week since different long- term models suggest the center of the system to be in different positions every day of the long-term, which can influence the amount of rainfall an area could receive. For now, we'll continue to monitor how long-term guidance shifts over the next few days.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at most terminals until late tonight/ early Monday morning. A weak system will bring light showers to the region this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to place showers on station at any one terminal. The best chances for any rain showers will be at ELM, BGM, ITH, and SYR, but even if these sites see showers, there are no restrictions expected since showers will be fairly light. As showers move out of these terminals after 00z tonight, conditions will become favorable for fog or low stratus to develop overnight. Model guidance was favoring ELM, BGM, and ITH with restrictions, but only put visibility restrictions at ELM as the highest confidence is fog will occur there. There is a bit more uncertainty at BGM and ITH, so only brought in MVFR ceilings for now and will take another look when 0Z TAFs are due. Any fog that develops will likely lift around 12z tomorrow, but there could be some lingering low ceilings.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated rain showers during the daytime hours. Patchy valley fog and restrictions Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Increasing chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front approaches.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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