Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nevis, MN
July 3, 2024 4:24 AM CDT (09:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:36 AM Sunset 9:26 PM Moonrise 1:54 AM Moonset 6:55 PM |
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 030855 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening t-storms today along and north of Highway 2. No severe storms.
- Additional chances of shower and thunderstorms will continue into early next week, highest chances Thursday the 4th and on Saturday. No severe storms anticipated.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis
500 mb low has moved more north than this time Tuesday with circulation in far NW Ontario and northeast Manitoba. Main clouds with this wave along and north of Dauphin/Winnipeg/Kenora.
Clear to partly cloudy south of this cloud area over eastern ND into northwest/west central MN.
Enough of a west wind to prevent fog formation, but 10-12z period may see patchy fog areas as RH values greater than 90 pct. Sunshine this morning will allow surface heating and highs today a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday in most areas.
With continued cool temps at 500 mb with readings of -14 to -15C enough heating to generate MU CAPE values in the 1200-1400 j/kg range, higher in S Manitoba. CAMS indicate isold to scat t-storm development this aftn/early evening in S Manitoba but also in NE ND/NW MN mainly north of Hwy 2. 0-6 km bulk shear values less than 20 kts so no severe weather.
Thursday system for the 4th will remain mostly south with heaviest rainfall (more than 1 inch) south of the area. Probs for more than 0.25 inch of rain 12z Thu-12z Fri range from less than 10 percent Roseau to near 55 pct Elbow Lake and along SD border. Chances for rain will be highest in the aftn mainly due to some aftn heating aiding in scattered t-storm development. No severe weather is anticipated due to 0-6 km bulk shear less than 20 kts in our area.
Same pattern continues into early next week with a daily chance for a few showers or t-storms mainly north. Saturday aftn will see an upper wave move in and higher rain chances, (60 pops north). Bulk shear will remain low so no severe storms anticipated. Temps and dew pts will remain the same with highs 75-80 and dew pts mid 50s to low 60s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Mostly clear skies are forecast over TAF sites through the evening. No impacts to aviation are expected from hazardous weather. Winds will be light under 10 kt out of the west- northwest this evening.
Wednesday will hold another chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms, highest chances in northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon (between 20-03Z). At this time, left out of TAFs due to low confidence in any potential thunderstorm impacting a site.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening t-storms today along and north of Highway 2. No severe storms.
- Additional chances of shower and thunderstorms will continue into early next week, highest chances Thursday the 4th and on Saturday. No severe storms anticipated.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis
500 mb low has moved more north than this time Tuesday with circulation in far NW Ontario and northeast Manitoba. Main clouds with this wave along and north of Dauphin/Winnipeg/Kenora.
Clear to partly cloudy south of this cloud area over eastern ND into northwest/west central MN.
Enough of a west wind to prevent fog formation, but 10-12z period may see patchy fog areas as RH values greater than 90 pct. Sunshine this morning will allow surface heating and highs today a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday in most areas.
With continued cool temps at 500 mb with readings of -14 to -15C enough heating to generate MU CAPE values in the 1200-1400 j/kg range, higher in S Manitoba. CAMS indicate isold to scat t-storm development this aftn/early evening in S Manitoba but also in NE ND/NW MN mainly north of Hwy 2. 0-6 km bulk shear values less than 20 kts so no severe weather.
Thursday system for the 4th will remain mostly south with heaviest rainfall (more than 1 inch) south of the area. Probs for more than 0.25 inch of rain 12z Thu-12z Fri range from less than 10 percent Roseau to near 55 pct Elbow Lake and along SD border. Chances for rain will be highest in the aftn mainly due to some aftn heating aiding in scattered t-storm development. No severe weather is anticipated due to 0-6 km bulk shear less than 20 kts in our area.
Same pattern continues into early next week with a daily chance for a few showers or t-storms mainly north. Saturday aftn will see an upper wave move in and higher rain chances, (60 pops north). Bulk shear will remain low so no severe storms anticipated. Temps and dew pts will remain the same with highs 75-80 and dew pts mid 50s to low 60s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Mostly clear skies are forecast over TAF sites through the evening. No impacts to aviation are expected from hazardous weather. Winds will be light under 10 kt out of the west- northwest this evening.
Wednesday will hold another chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms, highest chances in northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon (between 20-03Z). At this time, left out of TAFs due to low confidence in any potential thunderstorm impacting a site.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPKD
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPKD
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPKD
Wind History graph: PKD
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Duluth, MN,
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