Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:30 AM   Moonset 3:33 PM

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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Patchy fog late in the morning. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - South wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 954 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
moderate to strong winds are expected through tomorrow night with a low to medium chance for small craft advisory conditions tonight and tomorrow. There is a low chance for showers and Thunderstorms this morning. Gusty winds and hazardous seas will be possible with any passing storm. Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist through the middle of the week. Small craft advisory conditions may occur at times each afternoon, generally over the southern bays and waters. Onshore flow then weakens, becoming weak to moderate Thursday through Saturday.

FXUS64 KCRP 021144 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

-Low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms this morning

-High Risk of rip currents through Monday evening

A decaying MCS will move through Central Texas this morning and will continue to dissipate as it enters a more stable environment. The decaying MCS will kick out a boundary that will act as an initiator for storms to develop as it reaches the coastal trough in place over the region. The storms will likely fire around 12Z along the coastal trough located across the Coastal Bend and advect northwards due to the presence of strong/extreme instability (4000-5000 J/kg) and no cap. This will clear out by the afternoon and give way to hot and humid conditions across the region with highs in the 90s to 100s out west. There is a low to medium chance that we could reach Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon briefly. As of right now, the decision was hold off due to some uncertainties in the duration. Monday will be a similar story in terms of heat though there is a higher chance for Heat Advisory criteria to be reached. There will also be a possibility that we could see some areas in the Brush Country reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria tomorrow. Be sure to stay hydrated and check back for future updates.

With the prolonged winds and 7-8 second period swells the decision was made to continue the High Risk of rip currents through tomorrow evening. Early guidance has this likely continuing for the next couple of days.



LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance for major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through Thursday

- Increasing confidence for minor coastal flooding by the middle of the work week

Overall, no major changes made to this long term forecast update. A shortwave working across the Southern Plains late Monday will allow for a weakness in the upper level ridge. Guidance remains consistent with the idea of a few streams of H5 vorticity passing through the region late Monday. With sufficient moisture in place, will maintain a mention of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, generally across the Brush Country. In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave, upper level ridging becomes established. However, there's some potential for another ribbon of vorticity to pass through Tues/Wed before ridging builds back but confidence isn't as high there. The strengthening upper level ridge will lead to increasing temperatures through the middle of the week (more on that in a bit).
Towards the end of the work week, a closed low over the Eastern Pacific will move inland over Southern CA and ride around the western periphery of the ridge. As a result, the ridge will begin to weaken, providing some slight relief from the heat and potentially open the door to some impulses moving through within the weakened northwesterly flow aloft.

Temperatures will be on the rise through the week with highs settling into the low 90s along the coast to around 107 out west by Wed/Thu. Increased low level moisture will put our afternoon heat indices back into the 110-117 range Tuesday through Thursday.
Currently a medium to high (40-70%) chance of heat indices exceeding 110F. Much of the region will experience major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through Thursday. A weakness in the ridge by Friday will provide some relief with heat indices only in the 105- 109 range and a low chance for heat indices exceeding 110.

Lastly, a persistent moderate to strong southeasterly flow and an approaching new moon on June 6th, will providing an increasing risk of minor coastal flooding by the middle of the week. Recent PETSS guidance hints at us nearing criteria during Tuesday's high tide cycle. There is greater confidence during Wednesday and Thursday's high tide.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Initially anticipated convection has yet to form therefore it was taken out of the TAFs for all sites. There is low confidence in development across the eastern TAF sites this morning though this will be closely monitored as it still remains possible. Otherwise MVFR ceilings should clear out of all sites around 15-17Z and remain VFR through this evening. MVFR ceilings return tonight across the eastern TAF sites around 03-04Z and the western TAF sites around 06-08Z.

MARINE
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak to moderate south to southeast winds are expected today with winds increasing to moderate to strong tonight through Monday night. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms this morning. Gusty winds and hazardous seas will be possible with any passing storm. There is a medium to high chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions Monday. Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist through the middle of the week. Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur at times each afternoon, generally over the southern bays and waters. Onshore flow then weakens, becoming weak to moderate Thursday through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 94 82 94 81 / 20 0 0 10 Victoria 93 79 93 79 / 20 0 0 10 Laredo 102 81 104 79 / 10 0 10 20 Alice 97 80 98 80 / 10 0 0 10 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 30 0 0 10 Cotulla 102 81 103 79 / 10 10 10 20 Kingsville 95 81 96 80 / 10 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 92 83 91 83 / 30 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.

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