Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seadrift, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Unseasonably warm conditions will continue across South Texas for the next several days, as persistent southeasterly flow transports Gulf moisture inland. This pattern will maintain temperatures well above normal, with highs generally reaching the 80s to low 90s and lows remaining mild in the mid-60s to low 70s.

Rain chances will begin to increase late Friday into the weekend as a mid- to upper-level trough progresses southeastward from the northwest CONUS into the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, a 30- 40 knot LLJ will continue to transport moisture into South Texas, with PWATs rising toward the upper end of climatological values for this time of year. This deeper moisture, combined with periodic shortwave disturbances and favorable upper-level jet dynamics, will create an increasingly supportive environment for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region.

As the trough approaches, an associated cold front will move southeastward into Texas on Saturday. Models suggest the boundary will weaken as the northern portion of the main trough swings toward the Great Lakes while a cutoff low develops over Baja California. The front is expected to stall across South Texas during the weekend.

Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the front on Saturday may become strong to severe. SPC has outlined much of our CWA in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. Moderate instability with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and steep lapse rates along with bulk shear of approximately 30-35 knots should support organized convection. The main hazard will be damaging winds with linear segments or any organized clusters of storms. Although, isolated large hail will also be possible in areas where stronger shear coincides with greater instability.

In addition to the severe weather potential, locally heavy rainfall is also something to watch for this weekend as storms develop along the stalled boundary. While our ongoing drought conditions mean any rainfall will beneficial, our dry and compacted soils may lead to more efficient runoff in areas that receive any heavier downpours.

As we move into next week, the aforementioned cutoff low is expected to gradually move eastward across Texas which will send additional mid-level shortwaves through the region. This energy will interact with our moist environment to maintain rain and storm chances through the middle of next week. Increased cloud cover and precipitation may result in slightly cooler temperatures, though we will likely remain above normal until a possible stronger frontal passage brings more seasonable conditions late next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR ceilings this evening will diminish to MVFR/IFR ceilings late tonight through early Friday morning. Winds will remain elevated tonight and into Friday. Low rain chances will develop across South Texas after sunrise, however confidence in timing and location is still low so there is no mention in the TAF as of yet.

MARINE
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A generally moderate (BF 4) southeasterly breeze will persist through today, before increasing to become moderate to fresh (BF 4- 5) by tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until midnight Friday. We'll need to keep an eye out on observations and model trends to see if this will need to be extended farther into Friday morning/afternoon. Winds will diminish back to moderate (BF 4) late this weekend before becoming gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) by early next week. There is a low (<20%) chance of showers across the waters through Friday, increasing to a medium (30-60%) chance over the weekend in response to a passing mid- to upper-level disturbance.
Environmental conditons will likely remain supportive of rain and storm chances (20-40%) through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected the remainder of today across the Southern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains due to cured fuels, relative humidity values as low as 30%, and southeast winds 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 6 pm this evening. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again Friday afternoon. Chances for precipitation will generally remain low (approximately 20-25%) through Friday, but will increase to a medium to high (50-90%) chance over the weekend with a passing mid- to upper-level disturbance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 70 83 70 84 / 10 20 10 30 Victoria 67 83 68 84 / 10 20 10 40 Laredo 71 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 30 Alice 69 88 69 90 / 10 20 10 30 Rockport 69 81 70 82 / 10 20 10 30 Cotulla 69 91 70 89 / 10 20 10 50 Kingsville 69 87 69 88 / 10 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 70 78 70 78 / 10 20 10 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232- 250.