Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puxico, MO
June 2, 2024 2:37 PM CDT (19:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 1:57 AM Moonset 3:15 PM |
FXUS63 KPAH 021732 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place through much of this week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms, mainly Monday through Wednesday.
- The storms on Monday will be capable of producing very heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will also be possible.
- High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday.
UPDATE
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
High pressure will build across the region today, allowing for a break in the precipitation and partly cloudy skies. As the high departs to the east tonight into Monday, a warm front is expected to lift north on an increasing southerly wind. Guidance continues to show a shortwave drifting eastward across Missouri Monday morning, reaching the Quad State Monday afternoon into Monday evening. As the shortwave arrives, expect instability to increase to around 3000 J/kg. Deep layer wind shear is expected to be lacking at only 15 to 20 kts. The lack of shear would lead to a better chance of seeing pulse-type thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening with very heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail being the main threats. Much of the area is under a Marginal Risk of severe for Monday afternoon/evening. PWAT values jump up to around 1.5 to 2 inches by Monday afternoon, which will also lead to at least a localized flash flooding potential.
Another shortwave is progged to pass through or near the area during the day Tuesday, bringing another chance for showers and storms.
Instability is a bit lower with that shortwave (1000 J/kg) and shear is expected to be 20kts or less. Heavy rain and lightning will both be a possibility with that system, but the severe threat looks evening lower for Tuesday.
The next system and more widespread chances for showers and storms will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front approaches and passes through the area from the west. The latest guidance has frontal passage occurring late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front along with heavy downpours, but widespread severe weather does not appear likely at this time with weak shear and instability around 1000 J/kg.
Drier conditions will return for the end of the week (Thursday/Friday) as high pressure builds back into the region. The next chance of precipitation may arrive as early as Saturday, but there are many differences in the guidance this far out!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
MVFR cigs remain in the far northeast corner of the Quad State.
Cigs should mainly remain around 3500-5000 ft through the TAF period, with additional high clouds moving in from the west late. Variable 5 kt winds become calm overnight, then shift to southerly for tomorrow.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place through much of this week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms, mainly Monday through Wednesday.
- The storms on Monday will be capable of producing very heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will also be possible.
- High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday.
UPDATE
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
High pressure will build across the region today, allowing for a break in the precipitation and partly cloudy skies. As the high departs to the east tonight into Monday, a warm front is expected to lift north on an increasing southerly wind. Guidance continues to show a shortwave drifting eastward across Missouri Monday morning, reaching the Quad State Monday afternoon into Monday evening. As the shortwave arrives, expect instability to increase to around 3000 J/kg. Deep layer wind shear is expected to be lacking at only 15 to 20 kts. The lack of shear would lead to a better chance of seeing pulse-type thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening with very heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail being the main threats. Much of the area is under a Marginal Risk of severe for Monday afternoon/evening. PWAT values jump up to around 1.5 to 2 inches by Monday afternoon, which will also lead to at least a localized flash flooding potential.
Another shortwave is progged to pass through or near the area during the day Tuesday, bringing another chance for showers and storms.
Instability is a bit lower with that shortwave (1000 J/kg) and shear is expected to be 20kts or less. Heavy rain and lightning will both be a possibility with that system, but the severe threat looks evening lower for Tuesday.
The next system and more widespread chances for showers and storms will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front approaches and passes through the area from the west. The latest guidance has frontal passage occurring late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front along with heavy downpours, but widespread severe weather does not appear likely at this time with weak shear and instability around 1000 J/kg.
Drier conditions will return for the end of the week (Thursday/Friday) as high pressure builds back into the region. The next chance of precipitation may arrive as early as Saturday, but there are many differences in the guidance this far out!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
MVFR cigs remain in the far northeast corner of the Quad State.
Cigs should mainly remain around 3500-5000 ft through the TAF period, with additional high clouds moving in from the west late. Variable 5 kt winds become calm overnight, then shift to southerly for tomorrow.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPOF POPLAR BLUFF MUNI,MO | 20 sm | 44 min | SSW 09 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 81°F | 64°F | 58% | 29.98 |
Paducah, KY,
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