Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Odessa, MO
July 3, 2024 5:24 AM CDT (10:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM Moonset 6:13 PM |
Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 030852 AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 352 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Low probability of severe weather this afternoon, with potential for heavy rain in west central and central MO this evening.
- Strong to severe storms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Ongoing early morning convection has continued to regenerate and backbuild upon continued upper ascent and strongly veered low level jet. Rainfall rates overnight, and for the next couple days, have been aided by an impressive fetch of Gulf and Pacific moisture, shown well in the mid-level water vapor imagery. As the embedded shortwave trough departs this morning, look for a steady end of rainfall from west to east. Most areas should remain rain-free through at least midday to early afternoon. At the surface, a frontal boundary will settle south of Interstate 70 and become quasi- stationary by midday. Light northerly winds and a mix of cloud cover should help keep highs notably cooler than yesterday, with max readings in the lower to middle 80s.
By late this afternoon into tonight, another shortwave trough is projected to move across Kansas, increasing ascent in advance.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will once again spread across parts of Kansas and Missouri during this afternoon into the overnight hours of Thursday morning. The severe weather potential appears to be marginal at best, and confined to areas along and south of the surface boundary this afternoon and evening. Confidence is a little lower for the location/persistence of the heaviest rain axis later today into tonight. Currently, majority of model guidance keeps that heavy rain axis along and just south of the frontal boundary. This would place areas from Mound City/Butler to Sedalia within the highest prob zone, and likewise the greatest risk for flash flooding and additional river concerns. Lighter amounts are expected for areas north of that axis.
Morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing to start Thursday morning. A seasonably strong upper trough and associated cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening hours. As such with complex convective scenarios, uncertainty exists to the degree of destabilization following morning convection and the specific timing/location of the cold front passage. Still, assuming some destabilization - which is quite reasonable this time of year, the environment will support strong to severe storms. Currently, the most probable areas will be across the southeast half of the CWA ahead of the frontal passage. Overall flash flooding concerns on Thursday may be mitigated somewhat by the progressive nature anticipated with storm motions.
Near to slightly below normal temps should finish out the week, with at least Friday and Saturday quiet to dry out.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Band of scattered showers and thunderstorms along I-70 is expected to gradually shift east throughout the overnight.
Visibility should only be briefly reduced in the heavier storms.
After 18Z Wednesday, there is the potential for additional showers/thunderstorms though timing and coverage is unclear.
Surface winds are expected to be light through the period.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 352 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Low probability of severe weather this afternoon, with potential for heavy rain in west central and central MO this evening.
- Strong to severe storms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Ongoing early morning convection has continued to regenerate and backbuild upon continued upper ascent and strongly veered low level jet. Rainfall rates overnight, and for the next couple days, have been aided by an impressive fetch of Gulf and Pacific moisture, shown well in the mid-level water vapor imagery. As the embedded shortwave trough departs this morning, look for a steady end of rainfall from west to east. Most areas should remain rain-free through at least midday to early afternoon. At the surface, a frontal boundary will settle south of Interstate 70 and become quasi- stationary by midday. Light northerly winds and a mix of cloud cover should help keep highs notably cooler than yesterday, with max readings in the lower to middle 80s.
By late this afternoon into tonight, another shortwave trough is projected to move across Kansas, increasing ascent in advance.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will once again spread across parts of Kansas and Missouri during this afternoon into the overnight hours of Thursday morning. The severe weather potential appears to be marginal at best, and confined to areas along and south of the surface boundary this afternoon and evening. Confidence is a little lower for the location/persistence of the heaviest rain axis later today into tonight. Currently, majority of model guidance keeps that heavy rain axis along and just south of the frontal boundary. This would place areas from Mound City/Butler to Sedalia within the highest prob zone, and likewise the greatest risk for flash flooding and additional river concerns. Lighter amounts are expected for areas north of that axis.
Morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing to start Thursday morning. A seasonably strong upper trough and associated cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening hours. As such with complex convective scenarios, uncertainty exists to the degree of destabilization following morning convection and the specific timing/location of the cold front passage. Still, assuming some destabilization - which is quite reasonable this time of year, the environment will support strong to severe storms. Currently, the most probable areas will be across the southeast half of the CWA ahead of the frontal passage. Overall flash flooding concerns on Thursday may be mitigated somewhat by the progressive nature anticipated with storm motions.
Near to slightly below normal temps should finish out the week, with at least Friday and Saturday quiet to dry out.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Band of scattered showers and thunderstorms along I-70 is expected to gradually shift east throughout the overnight.
Visibility should only be briefly reduced in the heavier storms.
After 18Z Wednesday, there is the potential for additional showers/thunderstorms though timing and coverage is unclear.
Surface winds are expected to be light through the period.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KRCM
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KRCM
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KRCM
Wind History graph: RCM
(wind in knots)
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
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