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FXUS63 KEAX 052311 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 511 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Discussion
Issued at 313 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2023

Key Points:

* Elevated fire conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

* Intensifying storm system is expected to impact the region Friday into Saturday. Thunderstorms possible Friday night, with snow possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

Detailed discussion...

Mixing has lead to gusty northwest winds across the region this afternoon. These winds are expected to rapidly decrease with sunset tonight as surface ridge across central Kansas builds into the region overnight. With the clear skies and light winds, expect temperatures to fall through the evening hour, but the decreasing temperatures should slow after midnight as southerly winds and warm air advection ensues. With dry airmass and good radiative conditions, sided with forecast lows close to 33 percentile, with the coolest conditions in the central portions of the state where warm air advection will take the longest to set up.

Warm and windy conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday as surface high quickly retreats to the southeast and deepening trough moves along the US/Canadian border. Pressure gradient increases across the central plains to support winds gusting to 25 to 30 knots Wednesday afternoon, and 30-35 knots on Thursday afternoon. While relative humidities are only expected to fall to 50-60% each afternoon, the antecedent dry conditions and dormant fuels along with the strong winds are expected to produce an elevated fire danger across the districts.

Cold front associated with the low along the US/Canadian border is expected to build south into the region on Friday, but stall out as a low develops along the thermal gradient in the western Plains.
This system is expected to interact with mid and upper level dynamics leading to rapid deepening as the system lifts northeast.
Precipitation is expected to begin as rain/thunderstorms with this system, but as the cold air works into the region there is the potential for snow, especially across northern Missouri. At this point, there is too much model spread to get into amounts/timing, but there is ~20% chance of an inch or more of snow for much of the forecast area. Most likely timing for this would be Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening but this possibility would depend on timing of the cold air.

Northwest flow lingers behind the departing system Sunday keeping temperatures below normal. Westerly flow develops early next week allowing temperatures to return to near normal.

Aviation
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2023

VFR conditions are expected (>95%) through the forecast. Winds will diminish overnight, becoming variable, and then transition to the south to south-southwest tomorrow morning. Sustained winds in the 10-15kt range with gusts to 25kts are likely (>85%).

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,