Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 8:46 PM   Moonset 4:59 AM

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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1103 Am Edt Thu May 23 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, then a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 63 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 230931 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 531 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and less humid weather settling in through Friday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon and evening with a few strong storms possible especially west of Indiana 15/US 131.

- Saturday into early Sunday appears to be dry with additional chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

- Lingering showers and storms and cooler temperatures may impact activities on Memorial Day and into the start of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 321 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Mostly clear skies in place across the area in the wake of a cool front that moved through last night. A welcome change to drier air is now in place with surface dew points in the 40s across the area as opposed to the 60s yesterday. High temperatures though today should be similar to temperatures yesterday as the drier airmass will be quicker to modify the post frontal airmass. Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected today across the forecast area. Lows this morning and tomorrow night will be in the mid 50s.

The dry conditions should last into Friday morning before a warm frontal boundary pushes northeastward into the region ahead of a low pressure system that will move into the upper Midwest. Dew points will again surge higher behind the warm front with breezy southerly winds. Dew points will again be in the mid 60s by Friday afternoon/evening. With the high temperatures getting into the low to mid 80s, increased surface instability with SB CAPE values around 1000 j/kg forecast for the area on Friday coupled with a vigorous cold front beginning to move eastward across the area by Friday evening. This front will help to initiate thunderstorms which a few of the storms may become strong with forecasted shear values around 25 to 30 knots, perhaps a bit stronger along the frontal boundary. SPC currently has the western half of our CWA under a slight risk and the eastern half of the CWA with a marginal risk for strong to severe storms. The main threat at this time will be winds, however hail also will be possible. Will continue to monitor conditions for this convective event as we get closer.

The cold front should be through by early Saturday and bring a return to slightly cooler and drier conditions for Saturday with highs mainly in the 70s however our far southern parts of the CWA may see the low 80s. Clearing skies for the start to the holiday weekend however clouds will again be on the increase by Sunday with the arrival of another warm front into the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible with a few of the storms once again potentially becoming strong by Sunday afternoon/evening with better forcing with another cold front arrival and an upper level low circulation setting up over the Great Lakes region for the first half of the week. Right now cooler temperatures expected for Memorial Day through Wednesday with highs only in the upper 60s and low 70s and showers with a few embedded thunderstorms possible each day.

The threat of precipitation and cooler temperatures looks to remain through Wednesday before upper level ridging begins building into the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into Thursday bringing a return to drier conditions and a warming trend. By Thursday, high temperatures will warm to the mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 530 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

No changes needed from the 06Z to the 12Z TAFs. Skies will be clear, winds will be light, and temperatures will be cooler as a result of drier air working its way in. As an area of surface high pressure builds, winds have become light and variable; this will continue through the morning hours. Skies have cleared as a result of this high pressure located over the Great Lakes region, and thus, there should be minimal impacts to aviation during the TAF period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Northern Indiana, IN,