Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monterey, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Warm front has pushed NE of the forecast area with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s (yes, it is still March). Enjoy it while it lasts as a cold front, which currently extends from east central Wisconsin to NE Iowa, drops southeast over the next several hours, reaching NW parts of the area near or just before 12Z. The front will continue southeast through the morning, but slow its progress initially as a disturbances move along the boundary prior to the arrival of the main northern stream wave which will usher in much cooler (more seasonable)
air. A large temperatures gradient will set up with a 25 to maybe 35 degree difference from NW to SE. LLJ will ramp up late morning into the afternoon ahead of the front, with a window of warmup looking more likely as highs make a run into the mid to upper 70s before the front arrives. Moisture will remain rather limited (low to mid 50 dewpoints), but a pocket of steeper mid- level lapse rates, combined with the increased flow and lift along the front should allow for a line of showers and maybe a few storms to develop with the greatest chances for thunder near/south of US-24. SPC DY1 outlook has nudged the marginal risk for severe storms a bit NW, coincident with the area of best heating and moisture return. IF something was to happen it would be a very narrow window later this afternoon, with locally gusty winds and small hail possible. Another item of note will be a increase in winds both near and behind the front as some of the stronger low level winds mix down with some gusts maybe to 30 mph.

The shot of colder air behind the front will be rather short lived as the trough ejects away from the region and an upper level ridge over the SW US moves east with heights slowly increasing. This will bring a return to above normal and eventually one more push of much above normal temperatures by Thursday with highs back into the 60s and 70s. Another northern stream wave and cold front will arrive in the afternoon and evening hours to bring a chance for showers (thunderstorms?)
followed by, you guessed it, a return to near or below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A low pressure system moves through the Central Great Lakes this morning pushing a cold front southeastward through the area.
With the arrival of a line of 700 mb vorticity, pushing into the area around 15z, models are already initiating showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two that could produce some hail. This quickly congeals into a line and shifts southward slowly, reaching FWA around 00z. It would appear that that's just showers moving through though and that the better chance for strong to severe storms resides south of even FWA for Sunday.
With the passage of the cold front, we'll also have to watch for the formation of MVFR stratus as well as gusty winds up to around 25 kts around the evening time frame. It appears there's some uncertainty with the starting point of MVFR CIGs at SBN so will go with a tempo group until greater confidence can be realized. LLWS will also be possible at the start of the taf into this morning.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.