Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monterey, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

An impressive mid-upper level ridge, 500 mb center currently ~600 dam over southern MN and central WI, will gradually weaken and elongate southeastward over the local area today into Wednesday. The associated subsident heat dome will fold over as a result with peak afternoon heat indices up near 100F each day. Higher confidence in advisory level heat indices (100F plus) still looks to be along and north of the US 24 corridor by this afternoon with no changes made to today's Heat Advisory.
Additional headlines may be needed for Wednesday and Thursday as well, but will take this day by day for now.

The upper ridge center may sneak just far enough south by Thursday to allow a subtle backdoor front to near the US 30 corridor by peak heating. A few thunderstorms may develop (10-20%) near this boundary given the weak convergence and moderate boundary layer destabilization. Where this boundary sets up and any potential cloud debris will dictate how hot/humid we get on Thursday, though current NBM projections continue to point to another day of upper 90s to near 100F peak afternoon heat indices.

00z guidance overall is in decent agreement in deeper gulf moisture and a weak vort max lifting northeast into the area by Friday afternoon/evening, potentially leading to better coverage/chances (40-60%) for scattered showers/storms in the vicinity of the leftover frontal zone. Remaining hot and humid otherwise outside of any convection.

A low predictability PoP/temp forecast sets up this weekend into early next week as convective complexes and outflow boundaries become problematic in the vicinity of a low level theta-e ridge.
This feature will oscillate within the southern fringes of persistent west-northwest flow aloft. Model guidance does continue to hint a a more prominent shortwave within this developing flow regime sometime over the weekend with a larger scale frontal passage and convective complex.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 603 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

High pressure remains in control over the next several days with VFR conditions, little in the way of cloud cover, and light winds.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for INZ005-012>015-022-023-104-116-204-216.
Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020- 022>024-103-104-116-203-204-216.
Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ103-203.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016.
MI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.