Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monterey, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 143 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure centered over Illinois will provide tranquil conditions today. The primary near-term forecast challenges are patchy fog early this morning and forecast highs this afternoon.
So far fog has been confined to the far northwest forecast zones where northwest flow off the lake may be enhancing low- level moisture profiles. Sites further inland have had instances of similarly small dew point depressions (2F) but no fog reports so far. Forecast soundings do depict a subsidence inversion which will trap any low-level moisture flux. Overall, do not expect widespread fog this morning as it will be confined to areas such as La Porte, South Bend, and even Plymouth, IN.

High clouds slowly stream in today as low pressure moves over the Great Basin. 850mb temperatures (and 500mb heights) will be slightly warmer (higher) than yesterday while morning lows are certainly colder. Model guidance has struggled these past couple of days with the pattern change, thus, have increased temperatures today to nearly match those of Wednesday.

No sensible weather concerns until Saturday night where southern portions of the forecast area have a 20-30% chance of rain that lingers into Sunday. The trough responsible for the anticipated surface low will continue to work its way inland today, while also within the time frame of medium-range guidance bolstering forecast confidence. The in- house blend jives well with available deterministic and ensemble guidance in its southern- CWA solution, offering about a 40% chance of measurable (>=0.01")
rainfall. Given recent/ongoing snow melt and heavy rain elsewhere in the state, the local flood concern appears minimal at this time.

Notably warmer Friday and into next week as upper-level ridging takes shape. High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 remain on the table and are among the 25th percentile of model guidance (e.g., 75% chance that high temperature may be warmer than currently advertised). An active northern stream jet presents an increasing chance for rain by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1245 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Northern Indiana remains in the inflection zone of a western CONUS longwave ridge and western Atlantic troughing pattern.
This will keep the influence of a broad low level anticyclone in place across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. This ridge will provide light winds through much of this forecast period.
Given this light wind regime, cannot completely rule out some patchy radiational fog at terminals this morning, but confidence at terminals is too low to include at this time.

Mid/upper level water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a sheared vort max tracking across the Great Lakes which could allow for minor episode of low level CAA across eastern Lower Michigan this morning with perhaps some diurnally enhanced westward development of some 2000-3500 ft cu this afternoon. In addition, a broad 850mb theta-e gradient will be shifting east into northern Indiana this afternoon due to the slight eastward displacement of the low level ridge axis. This could yield sct- bkn VFR clouds in the 5-6k ft layer. Given the above will maintain VFR forecast with just a mention of some few-sct MVFR clouds this afternoon.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.