Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 4:33 PM   Moonset 2:00 AM

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ANZ636 York River- 546 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Today - S winds 5 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop after midnight. Thu - SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot in the afternoon. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

ANZ600 546 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains offshore this week with generally benign marine conditions apart from elevated southeast winds later this afternoon and evening.

FXUS61 KAKQ 181015 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure currently off the New England coast slowly shifts south through the end of the week. A very warm and dry pattern will continue this week, with very hot weather expected this weekend with widespread mid to upper 90s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Warm and dry today followed by a pleasant night tonight with temperatures falling into the 60s.

Early morning wx analysis shows 1026mb high pressure centered just offshore of the New England coast, with strong ridging aloft over the ern CONUS, and a ~595dm upper high over VA/NC. Skies are mostly clear with temps in the upper 60s-lower 70s. Today will be very similar to yesterday with the sfc high remaining anchored offshore while the anticyclone aloft strengthens to ~597dm over the Mid- Atlantic. The low-level flow becomes SE during the aftn, with the warmest temps (lower 90s) expected along and west of I-95. Highs will reach the mid-upper 80s near the coast with the flow becoming onshore. It will be a few degrees cooler tonight with the flow becoming light but remaining SE. Lows will fall into the lower-mid 60s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Continued warm and dry through the end of the week.

- Highs will only be a few degrees above average at most (mid 80s- lower 90s) on Wednesday and Thursday.

- A more pronounced warming trend begins on Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s expected. Heat indices will only be a couple degrees higher than the actual temperatures as dew points remain in the 60s through the end of the week.

The surface high remains centered offshore through the end of the week but slowly shifts southward (likely becoming centered off the VA/NC coast on Fri). The ~598dm upper high remains anchored over the Mid-Atlantic on Wed and Thu and will also gradually shift south through the end of the week. Low-level onshore (mainly SE) flow continues on Wed and Thu, with the flow becoming southerly on Friday as the sfc high shifts south. Highs Wed will be in the mid 80s near the coast (locally lower 80s from OXB-WAL) with upper 80s-90F readings inland. Thu will be a couple degrees warmer than Wed with highs in the mid-upper 80s near the coast with lower 90s inland.
With the flow becoming south on Friday, highs will rise into the mid 90s inland with upper 80s-lower 90s near the coast. Dew points will remain in the 60s through the period which will keep heat index values from being much higher than actual air temps. Dry wx continues with no precipitation chances through Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies expected each day (mainly due to typical afternoon cumulus). Lows Wed night still in the low-mid 60s, with mid-upper 60s Thu night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and slightly more humid conditions expected Saturday and Sunday.

- High temperatures will make a run at 100F over the weekend, with heat indices potentially exceeding advisory criteria across parts of the area.

- Scattered thunderstorms may finally return by Monday afternoon/evening.

Looking ahead, the main weather story this weekend remains the persistent and increasingly oppressive heat. Sfc high pressure slides into a more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern in the western Atlantic while the ridge aloft becomes suppressed to our south. This allows the low-level flow to become SSW which will bring very hot and slightly more humid air to the region. Equally as important, relief at night will become increasingly harder to come by, with overnight lows only falling to around 70F Friday night, and into the low-mid 70s Sat and Sun nights. Dry wx prevails through the weekend outside of isolated aftn/evening tstms on Sun. High temps will make a run at 100F on both days in areas west of the bay. Heat headlines will very likely be needed over at least a portion of the area on both Sat and Sun.

Hot weather continues on Monday with heat headlines possible (especially S/SE) but a shortwave tracking to our north along with an approaching cold front will bring a better chance for tstms by the aftn/evening (PoPs ~40%).

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 615 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the next 24 hrs.
Skies will remain mostly clear at the terminals this morning (outside of SCT mid-level AC through 13-14z) with FEW-SCT CU (~6000ft AGL) inland during the aftn. The wind will be light out of the SSE tonight, and then become SE ~10kt later this morning into the aftn.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

MARINE
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA winds expected through this week, though a few gusts to around 20 kt are possible in the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon.

- Moderate rip current risk at Ocean City and Assateague beaches today.

Winds are S-SSE ~10 kt across most of the marine area this morning with high pressure centered offshore. In our northern two Chesapeake Bay zones, continue to see a few gusts to around 20 kt. With most obs now below small craft advisory criteria, have elected to cancel all headlines with the morning forecast package. Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft. The gustiest winds of this week are forecast this afternoon where a few 20+ kt gusts are possible in the Chesapeake Bay in the 18z-00z/2 PM-8 PM timeframe. However, most guidance keeps sustained winds below 18 kt and wind probabilities reflect this.
Therefore, no headlines will be raised at this time for today. A repetitive, summer pattern is expected for most of this week with afternoon/evening enhancements in ESE/SE flow, though expecting winds to stay largely sub-SCA. The flow becomes southerly for the weekend as the offshore high drifts south. The only day where widespread SCA-level winds look possible is Sunday as low pressure passing to our N tightens the pressure gradient. Winds would remain southerly.

Seas of 2-3 ft are expected through most of the forecast period. May see readings approach 4 ft Thursday and Friday with increased southeasterly swell energy. Waves stay largely 1-2 ft, though 2-3 ft waves are possible this afternoon and evening in the lower bay.

The rip current risk is moderate across northern beaches and low across southern beaches today. A moderate risk is forecast at all beaches Wednesday. Swell energy and wave periods increase some for Thursday and Friday, suggesting a continuation of at least moderate rip risks.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Curles
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Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:23 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

City Point (Hopewell)
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Tue -- 01:17 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:53 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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