Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Low Mountain, AZ
July 3, 2024 3:36 AM MDT (09:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM Moonset 6:08 PM |
FXUS65 KFGZ 030914 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 214 AM MST Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Hot and dry conditions are expected for much of northern Arizona through the weekend and into early next week. Any chances for showers will be limited to the White Mountains for the time being.
DISCUSSION
Today...Drier, westerly flow aloft will keep preciptation at bay for much northern Arizona. Some remnant moisture near the White Mountains will allow for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, however this activity should largely be minimal.
Temperatures also begin to rise today as high pressure begins to build over California. High temperatures this afternoon look to be around 5 degrees above normal.
Thursday and Friday...High pressure continues to build over California, keeping warming temperatures in the forecast. With increasing confidence in excessive heat in the lower elevations, the Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to a warning. Northerly flow aloft will continue to keep moisture mainly limited to the lower deserts of southern Arizona. A rouge isolated shower can not be ruled out along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in the afternoon, but for now chances will remain below any mentionable values.
Saturday through Tuesday...Heights continue to rise over Arizona as the area of high pressure shifts eastward and becomes centered over the Lower Colorado River Valley. Temperatures continue to rise, with highs nearing 10 degrees above normal. Much of the lower elevations look to be above 100F with the lowest elevations near or even above 110F. Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning has been extended through the holiday weekend and into Monday.
Moisture largely remains outside of the region, however it does look to gradually increase on the southern fringes of the CWA Guidance especially begins to diverge into next week as Hurricane Beryl potentially makes landfall in Texas/northern Mexico. Although with the strength of the high in place, any moisture that is sent this way looks to have minimal impact with mostly just an increase in afternoon cloud cover.
AVIATION
Wednesday 03/06Z through Thursday 04/06Z...VFR conditions will prevail over the northern Arizona TAF sites through the period. Westerly/southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible Wednesday afternoon.
OUTLOOK
Thursday 04/06Z through Saturday 06/06Z
VFR conditions will prevail over northern Arizona through the outlook period.
FIRE WEATHER
Wednesday and Thursday...Shower and thunderstorm chances retreat to southern Apache County Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions Thursday. Temperatures will climb well above normal during this period. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph today become lighter on Thursday, with a switch to northerly.
Friday through Sunday...Hot and dry conditions are expected. Very slight chances of convective development over or south of the White Mountains will likely not lead to any measurable rainfall. Daily northwest through northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Thursday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 214 AM MST Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Hot and dry conditions are expected for much of northern Arizona through the weekend and into early next week. Any chances for showers will be limited to the White Mountains for the time being.
DISCUSSION
Today...Drier, westerly flow aloft will keep preciptation at bay for much northern Arizona. Some remnant moisture near the White Mountains will allow for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, however this activity should largely be minimal.
Temperatures also begin to rise today as high pressure begins to build over California. High temperatures this afternoon look to be around 5 degrees above normal.
Thursday and Friday...High pressure continues to build over California, keeping warming temperatures in the forecast. With increasing confidence in excessive heat in the lower elevations, the Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to a warning. Northerly flow aloft will continue to keep moisture mainly limited to the lower deserts of southern Arizona. A rouge isolated shower can not be ruled out along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in the afternoon, but for now chances will remain below any mentionable values.
Saturday through Tuesday...Heights continue to rise over Arizona as the area of high pressure shifts eastward and becomes centered over the Lower Colorado River Valley. Temperatures continue to rise, with highs nearing 10 degrees above normal. Much of the lower elevations look to be above 100F with the lowest elevations near or even above 110F. Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning has been extended through the holiday weekend and into Monday.
Moisture largely remains outside of the region, however it does look to gradually increase on the southern fringes of the CWA Guidance especially begins to diverge into next week as Hurricane Beryl potentially makes landfall in Texas/northern Mexico. Although with the strength of the high in place, any moisture that is sent this way looks to have minimal impact with mostly just an increase in afternoon cloud cover.
AVIATION
Wednesday 03/06Z through Thursday 04/06Z...VFR conditions will prevail over the northern Arizona TAF sites through the period. Westerly/southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible Wednesday afternoon.
OUTLOOK
Thursday 04/06Z through Saturday 06/06Z
VFR conditions will prevail over northern Arizona through the outlook period.
FIRE WEATHER
Wednesday and Thursday...Shower and thunderstorm chances retreat to southern Apache County Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions Thursday. Temperatures will climb well above normal during this period. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph today become lighter on Thursday, with a switch to northerly.
Friday through Sunday...Hot and dry conditions are expected. Very slight chances of convective development over or south of the White Mountains will likely not lead to any measurable rainfall. Daily northwest through northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Thursday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KRQE
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KRQE
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KRQE
Wind History graph: RQE
(wind in knots)
Flagstaff, AZ,
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