Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, MN
June 1, 2024 3:09 AM CDT (08:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:27 AM Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 1:40 AM Moonset 2:17 PM |
FXUS63 KARX 010335 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1035 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers, a few storms continue tonight into Saturday. Severe weather not expected but locally heavy rains possible into early evening.
- More rain chances Sunday night/Mon and again later Tue into Tue night. Some threat for strong/severe storms, moreso Tue evening...but ample uncertainties in timing/placment of responsible weather makers. Heavy rain potential. Something to watch.
- End of next week trending cooler with occasional showers.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
TONIGHT/SAT: areas of showers, a few storms
A bit of upper level energy with a cold front reflected at the sfc working on a 1000 J/kg pool of SBCAPE to fire areas of showers and storms across parts of IA, MN and northwest WI this afternoon. Some of the CAMS suggest an uptick in intensity by late afternoon/early evening. Instability is marginal with weak shear - so not expecting anything too perky (no severe locally but a strong storm or two not out of the question).
The showers will continue into the overnight with a few cracks of thunder but overall coverage should be on the decline with decrease in instability (loss of daytime heating).
The pcpn looks to shift east/southeast of the local area toward the noon hour, but recent CAMS runs suggest a thin line of convection could fire in the afternoon, in a ribbon of instability with some lingering convergence along the system's cold front and/or differential heating between sunny/cloudy region post the morning rains. Here again, very skinny CAPE profile in the vertical and not much shear to work with (limiting/eliminating a strong/severe risk).
Enough potential to continue smaller end rain chances (20-40%)
through the afternoon.
SUN NIGHT/MON: more rain chances
Another shortwave trough and attendant cold front will be pushing across the northern plains Sunday. Line of showers/storms should spark along the leading edge of the system, and with ample buoyant, moist air to play with, strong-severe storms appear to be a solid bet. These are progged to slide over western MN Sun evening and continue to the Mississippi River overnight. They should be diminishing in intensity and coverage with loss of daytime heating (instability), increasing near sfc CIN, and some weakening in the low level jet/moisture transport.
Showers and a few storms likely persisting over the region Monday as the shortwave/front continues to exit east. Clouds, pcpn will favor holding the greater pool of instability southward, limiting potential for strong storms locally.
Of course, all this depends on timing. While the EC and GFS generally favor the aforementioned solution (as do their ensemble members), the NAM does not. The 31.12z NAM is about 12 hours slower, which would end up bringing the front in later in the day - where more instability could/would be available, and raises the specter of stronger storms.
For now, will stick with the GFS/EC solution - but keep an eye on evolution as we move into the new work week.
TUE/TUE NIGHT: another round of storms, some could be strong
Long range guidance has been in good agreement with dropping a more robust upper level shortwave across the northern plains Tue, spinning across the upper mississippi river valley Tue afternoon/evening. Relatively warm, moist air pools ahead of the attendant cold front with PWs currently looking to push upwards of 1 3/4" while MUCAPES could climb 2000+ J/kg. Some wind shear to play with, aiding convective potential/development. Obviously too far out to put any definitive statement on what to expect, but depending on how quickly the system moves, there would be the potential for strong/severe storms across parts of the region. In addition, warm cloud depths progged by the EC and GFS to tickle 4K m...pointing to efficient rain makers...suggesting a heavy rain threat. North-south orientation of any rain band and progressive nature west-east would work against prolonged heavy rain, but a localized concern certainly. Something else to keep an eye on as we move into the new work week.
LATTER HALF OF NEW WEEK: blocking pattern? Trending cooler, occasional showers
GEFS and EPS runs over the past couple days continue to carve out an upper level trough over the eastern great lakes/new england states while amplifying a ridge along the west coast. They start to disagree with whether this pattern will hold through the weekend, or show some progression east. WPC cluster analysis bears this out suggesting both solutions are possible...with the bulk of the EPS favoring holding the pattern in place while most of the GEFS nudge the ridge eastward. The EPS would bring cool air in, and hold it there, through the weekend along with periodic shower chances. The GEFS also returns cooler air, but suggests some moderation toward week's end. It would still favor those shower chances.
Upshot for sensible weather? Still looking like a return to cooler than normal temps either way, with occasional shower chances. How long the colder air sticks around, and how widespread rain chances would be, remain question marks.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Main taf concerns are MVFR/IFR conditions at both RST/LSE taf sites after 12z Saturday. Surface front will slowly move across the area tonight
Behind the surface front
ceilings are expected to lower into MVFR at both RST/LSE taf sites after 12z Saturday. However with less rainfall across the region...there are hints the MVFR conditions could be brief during the day
For now
have kept a period of 6 to 8 hours of MVFR conditions during the day Saturday with improving conditions middle of Saturday afternoon. There is the possibility of showers moving over the taf sites overnight/Saturday morning along the front. Have mention of vicinity showers and brief period of showers early Saturday morning. Latest hi-resolution models also suggest isolated showers/storms developing in the afternoon across the area. Based on coverage will not mention in the RST/LSE tafs.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1035 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers, a few storms continue tonight into Saturday. Severe weather not expected but locally heavy rains possible into early evening.
- More rain chances Sunday night/Mon and again later Tue into Tue night. Some threat for strong/severe storms, moreso Tue evening...but ample uncertainties in timing/placment of responsible weather makers. Heavy rain potential. Something to watch.
- End of next week trending cooler with occasional showers.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
TONIGHT/SAT: areas of showers, a few storms
A bit of upper level energy with a cold front reflected at the sfc working on a 1000 J/kg pool of SBCAPE to fire areas of showers and storms across parts of IA, MN and northwest WI this afternoon. Some of the CAMS suggest an uptick in intensity by late afternoon/early evening. Instability is marginal with weak shear - so not expecting anything too perky (no severe locally but a strong storm or two not out of the question).
The showers will continue into the overnight with a few cracks of thunder but overall coverage should be on the decline with decrease in instability (loss of daytime heating).
The pcpn looks to shift east/southeast of the local area toward the noon hour, but recent CAMS runs suggest a thin line of convection could fire in the afternoon, in a ribbon of instability with some lingering convergence along the system's cold front and/or differential heating between sunny/cloudy region post the morning rains. Here again, very skinny CAPE profile in the vertical and not much shear to work with (limiting/eliminating a strong/severe risk).
Enough potential to continue smaller end rain chances (20-40%)
through the afternoon.
SUN NIGHT/MON: more rain chances
Another shortwave trough and attendant cold front will be pushing across the northern plains Sunday. Line of showers/storms should spark along the leading edge of the system, and with ample buoyant, moist air to play with, strong-severe storms appear to be a solid bet. These are progged to slide over western MN Sun evening and continue to the Mississippi River overnight. They should be diminishing in intensity and coverage with loss of daytime heating (instability), increasing near sfc CIN, and some weakening in the low level jet/moisture transport.
Showers and a few storms likely persisting over the region Monday as the shortwave/front continues to exit east. Clouds, pcpn will favor holding the greater pool of instability southward, limiting potential for strong storms locally.
Of course, all this depends on timing. While the EC and GFS generally favor the aforementioned solution (as do their ensemble members), the NAM does not. The 31.12z NAM is about 12 hours slower, which would end up bringing the front in later in the day - where more instability could/would be available, and raises the specter of stronger storms.
For now, will stick with the GFS/EC solution - but keep an eye on evolution as we move into the new work week.
TUE/TUE NIGHT: another round of storms, some could be strong
Long range guidance has been in good agreement with dropping a more robust upper level shortwave across the northern plains Tue, spinning across the upper mississippi river valley Tue afternoon/evening. Relatively warm, moist air pools ahead of the attendant cold front with PWs currently looking to push upwards of 1 3/4" while MUCAPES could climb 2000+ J/kg. Some wind shear to play with, aiding convective potential/development. Obviously too far out to put any definitive statement on what to expect, but depending on how quickly the system moves, there would be the potential for strong/severe storms across parts of the region. In addition, warm cloud depths progged by the EC and GFS to tickle 4K m...pointing to efficient rain makers...suggesting a heavy rain threat. North-south orientation of any rain band and progressive nature west-east would work against prolonged heavy rain, but a localized concern certainly. Something else to keep an eye on as we move into the new work week.
LATTER HALF OF NEW WEEK: blocking pattern? Trending cooler, occasional showers
GEFS and EPS runs over the past couple days continue to carve out an upper level trough over the eastern great lakes/new england states while amplifying a ridge along the west coast. They start to disagree with whether this pattern will hold through the weekend, or show some progression east. WPC cluster analysis bears this out suggesting both solutions are possible...with the bulk of the EPS favoring holding the pattern in place while most of the GEFS nudge the ridge eastward. The EPS would bring cool air in, and hold it there, through the weekend along with periodic shower chances. The GEFS also returns cooler air, but suggests some moderation toward week's end. It would still favor those shower chances.
Upshot for sensible weather? Still looking like a return to cooler than normal temps either way, with occasional shower chances. How long the colder air sticks around, and how widespread rain chances would be, remain question marks.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Main taf concerns are MVFR/IFR conditions at both RST/LSE taf sites after 12z Saturday. Surface front will slowly move across the area tonight
Behind the surface front
ceilings are expected to lower into MVFR at both RST/LSE taf sites after 12z Saturday. However with less rainfall across the region...there are hints the MVFR conditions could be brief during the day
For now
have kept a period of 6 to 8 hours of MVFR conditions during the day Saturday with improving conditions middle of Saturday afternoon. There is the possibility of showers moving over the taf sites overnight/Saturday morning along the front. Have mention of vicinity showers and brief period of showers early Saturday morning. Latest hi-resolution models also suggest isolated showers/storms developing in the afternoon across the area. Based on coverage will not mention in the RST/LSE tafs.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRST ROCHESTER INTL,MN | 10 sm | 15 min | NE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.99 | |
| KTOB DODGE CENTER,MN | 18 sm | 14 min | calm | 4 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Mist | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 30.00 |
La Crosse, WI,
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