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FXUS64 KEWX 010726 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An MCS over the Texas South Plains is currently passing to the north of our area. It's only impact is to send a surface boundary into our area that could generate some showers over the Edwards Plateau into Val Verde county early this morning. This boundary will wash out later this morning as southeasterly lower level flow takes hold. A few showers and thunderstorms will develop near the Coastal Plains this morning, then spread across the I-35 corridor into the eastern Hill Country this afternoon with heating. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the dryline across western Texas and over the Serranias del Burro in Mexico due to heating and the approach of a mid level impulse this afternoon. These may form into clusters and move into our western areas this evening, then dissipate as they move into the I-35 corridor early in the overnight hours with loss of heating and the exit of the impulse. Forecast soundings show ample instability and shear for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Above normal PWS indicate a potential for locally heavy rains with minor flooding the main threat, especially in areas that have had heavy rains recently.
Redevelopment of a few showers and thunderstorms is possible over Central Texas Sunday afternoon. Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected today through Sunday.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Well above average heat becomes the main story once more through next week as upper level ridging centered over Mexico gradually nudges northward towards and atop the Desert Southwest. This heat likely peaks sometime midweek with Wednesday forecast to be the hottest day across the area. Afternoon highs into the mid to upper 90s will be common while 100s will trend west-southwest of San Antonio towards the Rio Grande. Thanks in part to the recent soil moisture from Spring rains, dew points are to remain elevated through much of the period. This will help result in higher heat indices where daily heat advisories may again be needed across portions of the region with values near or above 108 degrees. The overnights will run very warm and humid as well given those dew points with lows in the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Our rain/storm chances lessen through the long term as the active storm pattern starts to transition and favor farther north into portions of the central plains. However, models on recent runs do show a possible disturbance advancing across the area into and through Monday evening. The disturbance could help initiate some potential convection along and west of the Rio Grande. Have added low end PoPs across most locations as this activity may have the ability to advance across portions of the region mainly beyond sunset. While the bulk of next week will remain dry, we'll still have to keep an eye out for any stray opportunities as the development of a more northerly flow aloft may still allow for any stronger outflows and/or convective complexes that establish to advance into and across portions of the state.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR turns MVFR overnight. VFR returns by midday on Saturday, only to fall back to MVFR Saturday night. There are low PROBs for SHRA/TSRA on Saturday into Saturday night. However there is uncertainty on timing, locations, and movement. As a result, have kept mention out of forecast, at this time. Southeasterly winds will prevail, becoming breezy/gusty on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 90 76 92 77 / 20 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 75 92 77 / 20 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 75 95 78 / 20 20 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 87 73 89 75 / 20 20 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 98 78 101 81 / 10 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 89 74 90 76 / 20 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 94 75 98 78 / 10 20 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 74 93 77 / 20 20 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 76 91 78 / 30 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 76 95 78 / 20 20 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 93 77 97 79 / 20 20 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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