Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 12:40 PM   Moonset 12:31 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 300 Am Pdt Fri Jun 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Saturday evening - .
Rest of tonight - S wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.Fri - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri night - W wind 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat - W wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat night - W wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun - W wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun night - W wind 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Mon - W wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Mon night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tue - W wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tue night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 300 Am Pdt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
gale force gusts and strong north and northwest winds build across waters and last through much of the weekend. Significant wave heights up to around 12 to 15 feet in the outer waters and 10 to 14 feet in the inner waters continue into the weekend. Hazardous conditions for continue into the next work week.

FXUS66 KMTR 141207 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 507 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 208 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Slight temperature warm up for Friday, especially away from the coast. Near normal temperatures over the weekend. Northerly winds will increase later Friday and persist over the weekend. The stronger winds will lead to hazardous conditions over the coastal waters and elevated fire weather conditions overland. Longer range outlook shows a notable warm up late next week.

SHORT TERM
Issued at 208 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today and tonight)

Overnight satellite imagery shows a June Gloom-ish type picture with marine layer stratus covering the coast from the Golden Gate southward. The stratus is also at a depth of 1700 feet per Fort Ord profiler with decent inland coverage around Monterey Bay, Hollister, and Salinas Valley. Despite the cloudy start for some areas, today will generally be warmer than Thursday. The reason? Building shortwave ridge aloft in from the south and increasing N-S gradient (SFO-ACV). In other words, a higher likelihood of seeing sunshine today, even at the coast. Temperatures today will be in the 60s to mid 70s coast/bays and upper 70s to upper 90s inland. The warmest temperatures will be interior portions of Monterey/San Benito with isolated HeatRisk values in the Moderate category.

For tonight, the shortwave ridge building in from the south will battle a passing upper level trough through NorCal and the PacNW.
This passing trough will help to established increasing N-S pressure gradients and developing offshore flow over the higher terrain. As a result, the marine layer will be much less and confined more to the coast.

LONG TERM
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Saturday through Thursday)

The weekend into early next week: the shortwave ridge gets flattened as the aforementioned longwave trough (embedded upper low) becomes more entrenched across the West Coast. The end result? Cooler, but seasonable, temperatures. Highs ranging from 60s to mid 70s coast/bays and mid 70s to lower 90s inland. The more noteworthy weather item over the weekend will be the increasing northerly flow leading to marine hazards and fire weather concerns. See MARINE and FIRE WEATHER sections for specific details. Generally speaking, the northerly gradient will increase further and peak close to -8.5mb for SFO-ACV by Saturday night/Sunday. That type of set up will make it hard for the marine layer to remain , but also support wind gusts of 35-45 mph. Could even see some gusts approach 50 mph over the coastal waters.
Confidence is pretty high for the stronger wind potential as ensembles and ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlight portions of the CWA In fact, the ECMWF EFI pin-points strongest winds along the Big Sur coast south to Pt Conception. While not strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory they will be able to blow loose items around, especially along the coast, bays, and N-S oriented valleys.

Tuesday and beyond: Winds finally ease as the N-S begins to relax mitigating Marine and Fire Weather concerns. Interesting evolution of the longwave pattern middle of next week. While the pattern looks "troughy" it does show rising 500 mb heights over CA. More importantly, the warming of 850 mb temperatures. This begins to show up by Wednesday and then continue through next week. Rising 500 mb heights and warming 850 mb temperatures will kick off a warming and trend. Latest long range outlook from WPC highlights portions of the Central Valley and SoCal for Excessive Heat.
Cluster analysis and NBM guidance supports this highlighting from WPC. Official forecast late next weekend has triple heat impacting interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Will need to monitor over the coming days.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

IFR/MVFR CIGs are affecting the immediate coast, APC, Monterey Bay, Salinas Valley. Low visibility and LIFR CIGS are affecting STS. CIGS and visibilities improve by the mid to late morning, leading to widespread VFR. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning before increasing this afternoon, with strong and gusty winds along the immediate coast and at SFO. Expect winds to reduce into the evening, but stay moderate to breezy until the late night. As winds at the surface reduce, winds aloft stay strong, causing concerns for LLWS in the North Bay late tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay moderate through the late morning. Breezy westerly winds arrive int the early afternoon and become stronger in the late afternoon with peak gusts around 33 kts. Gusts reduce in the late evening but stay breezy for much of the night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR CIGS last with light to moderate winds through the mid to late morning. Expect more moderate to breezy winds to arrive as CIGs thin. Winds reduce slightly into the evening.

MARINE
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 506 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Gale force gusts and strong north and northwest winds build across waters and last through much of the weekend. Significant wave heights up to around 12 to 15 feet in the outer waters and 10 to 14 feet in the inner waters continue into the weekend.
Hazardous conditions for continue into the next work week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 315 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Through The Weekend

*Less impactful marine layer *Increasing northerly winds, especially higher terrain *Lowering relative humidity values day and night

No notable change from previous forecast. Friday will feature the last full day of onshore flow with an impactful marine layer (cool/higher RH). By late Friday night/early Saturday winds become more northerly over the higher terrain of the N and E Bay with gusts 25-35 mph. The developing offshore flow will usher in moderate to locally poor humidity recoveries above 1,000 feet. The drier airmass will ultimately spread across the entire district Saturday afternoon with 15-30% RH minimums across the interior. A slight uptick in RH recoveries on Saturday night as the marine layer tries to re-establish itself below 1,000 feet. Above 1,000 feet will feature another night with moderate to locally poor humidity recoveries Saturday night into Sunday. Despite some strong winds and lowering humidity onshore flow never completely goes aways. It would definitely be on the unusual side to issue a Red Flag Warning in June with some hint of a marine layer/onshore flow. Therefore, will keep a headline in place and continue to message elevated fire weather concerns. It should be noted, that does not mean grass fires will not be in the equation over the weekend. Fine fuels like grass will support fires as seen by recent fire trends. However, larger fires with thicker fuels (non- grass) will be less likely. 100 and 1000 fuels are still holding onto some winter moisture. A great way to visually see this is watching ERC trends. The ERC forecast through the weekend does show a trend toward seasonal levels, but not into the widespread critical range.

Regardless, individuals with outdoor activities planned this weekend should be fire weather aware. Be mindful and don't be "that spark".

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

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South San Francisco
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Fri -- 01:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:45 AM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:30 AM PDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:06 PM PDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:40 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:01 PM PDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South San Francisco, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Sierra Point 1.3 mi ENE
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Fri -- 01:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:54 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:31 AM PDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:16 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:20 AM PDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:40 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:43 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:00 PM PDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:14 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:15 PM PDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sierra Point 1.3 mi ENE, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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