Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eden, TX
June 2, 2024 12:41 PM CDT (17:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 2:41 AM Moonset 3:50 PM |
Area Discussion for - San Angelo, TX
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FXUS64 KSJT 021721 AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
...Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening...
Satellite and radar images indicate the MCS/MCV feature moving eastward across portions of the northwest Hill Country early this morning. Isolated convection across portions of Menard and Concho counties has diminished in the last hour as the outflow boundary from the thunderstorms across the northern Edwards Plateau earlier this evening continues to move northeast across eastern portions of the Concho Valley into the Heartland. May see some isolated showers or thunderstorms develop along the outflow boundary early this morning but storms should remain below severe limits.
The latest NAM and GFS model runs prog a weak shortwave trough in the westerly flow aloft moving eastward across west Texas this afternoon into this evening
At the surface
the dryline across west Texas will provide a focus for thunderstorms to develop later today into tonight. SPC has the western counties of our CWA under a slight risk for severe weather today and tonight with a marginal risk across the rest of the CWA except across portions of the northwest Hill Country. The main severe weather hazards expected with severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are large hail and damaging winds...mainly across the western portions of the CWA
Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Heartland to the lower to mid 90s across the I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s across most of the
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A few models are hinting at the possibility of convection in our area Monday evening. The dry line is expected to push east into our western counties by the late afternoon and early evening.
Dewpoints ahead of the dry line could be in the low to mid 70s, although there is a bit of disagreement on this in the high res models, with some models showing dewpoints in the mid 70s and some in the low 60s. This will have a significant impact on potential development. If the dewpoints do in fact remain high and an upper level disturbance moves through in the evening, like some models are showing, we could see thunderstorms. With the extensive CAPE values and mid level lapse rates that could be in place, there will be the potential for severe storms. This is all conditional on the dew points and location of the disturbance however.
Some good news and bad news for the rest of the long term. The good news is that the chance for severe weather will be lower this next week. The bad news is that temperatures are expected to go back into the upper 90s and 100s for much of next week. A large upper level ridge will start to build over the western half of the United States on Tuesday, leading to above normal temperatures for much of the long term. Heat index values could exceed 105 degrees in some areas for Tuesday through Thursday, leading to an increased risk of heat impacts. Precipitation chances will start to increase on Friday as an upper low develops off to our west, breaking down the ridge slightly and sending some upper level
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Most sites have not improved to VFR early this afternoon, but KJCT and KBBD continue to hang on to high end MVFR ceilings. Expect these to lift or scatter out with some additional warming over the next couple hours. We will have another chance for scattered afternoon and evening TSRA, with the best chances near KABI and KBBD. Have addressed these chances with some VCTS groups at those sites. Expect the thunderstorm activity to end around 06Z.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move back in again early Monday morning, with generally south to southeast winds from 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to around 20 knots at times.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 72 94 72 101 / 30 10 0 0 San Angelo 73 100 73 104 / 20 10 0 0 Junction 75 99 75 103 / 10 10 10 0 Brownwood 72 91 71 96 / 20 10 10 0 Sweetwater 72 97 73 101 / 30 10 0 0 Ozona 73 96 72 101 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 72 92 73 96 / 20 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
...Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening...
Satellite and radar images indicate the MCS/MCV feature moving eastward across portions of the northwest Hill Country early this morning. Isolated convection across portions of Menard and Concho counties has diminished in the last hour as the outflow boundary from the thunderstorms across the northern Edwards Plateau earlier this evening continues to move northeast across eastern portions of the Concho Valley into the Heartland. May see some isolated showers or thunderstorms develop along the outflow boundary early this morning but storms should remain below severe limits.
The latest NAM and GFS model runs prog a weak shortwave trough in the westerly flow aloft moving eastward across west Texas this afternoon into this evening
At the surface
the dryline across west Texas will provide a focus for thunderstorms to develop later today into tonight. SPC has the western counties of our CWA under a slight risk for severe weather today and tonight with a marginal risk across the rest of the CWA except across portions of the northwest Hill Country. The main severe weather hazards expected with severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are large hail and damaging winds...mainly across the western portions of the CWA
Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Heartland to the lower to mid 90s across the I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s across most of the
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A few models are hinting at the possibility of convection in our area Monday evening. The dry line is expected to push east into our western counties by the late afternoon and early evening.
Dewpoints ahead of the dry line could be in the low to mid 70s, although there is a bit of disagreement on this in the high res models, with some models showing dewpoints in the mid 70s and some in the low 60s. This will have a significant impact on potential development. If the dewpoints do in fact remain high and an upper level disturbance moves through in the evening, like some models are showing, we could see thunderstorms. With the extensive CAPE values and mid level lapse rates that could be in place, there will be the potential for severe storms. This is all conditional on the dew points and location of the disturbance however.
Some good news and bad news for the rest of the long term. The good news is that the chance for severe weather will be lower this next week. The bad news is that temperatures are expected to go back into the upper 90s and 100s for much of next week. A large upper level ridge will start to build over the western half of the United States on Tuesday, leading to above normal temperatures for much of the long term. Heat index values could exceed 105 degrees in some areas for Tuesday through Thursday, leading to an increased risk of heat impacts. Precipitation chances will start to increase on Friday as an upper low develops off to our west, breaking down the ridge slightly and sending some upper level
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Most sites have not improved to VFR early this afternoon, but KJCT and KBBD continue to hang on to high end MVFR ceilings. Expect these to lift or scatter out with some additional warming over the next couple hours. We will have another chance for scattered afternoon and evening TSRA, with the best chances near KABI and KBBD. Have addressed these chances with some VCTS groups at those sites. Expect the thunderstorm activity to end around 06Z.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move back in again early Monday morning, with generally south to southeast winds from 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to around 20 knots at times.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 72 94 72 101 / 30 10 0 0 San Angelo 73 100 73 104 / 20 10 0 0 Junction 75 99 75 103 / 10 10 10 0 Brownwood 72 91 71 96 / 20 10 10 0 Sweetwater 72 97 73 101 / 30 10 0 0 Ozona 73 96 72 101 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 72 92 73 96 / 20 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
San Angelo, TX,
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